000
WTNT42 KNHC 121435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
hurricane status.  A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
about 24 hours.

Fay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt.
Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while
embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is
in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the
previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 34.0N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 35.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 36.0N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/0000Z 36.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1200Z 34.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/1200Z...absorbed by a front

$$
Forecaster Avila

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

After 1200 UTC, subjective T-numbers from and TAFB and objective
numbers from the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS indicate that Fay
has reached hurricane status with an initial intensity of 65 kt.
This coincided with the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature
in microwave imagery and a center surrounded by very deep
convection. Fay is the fifth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season.

Given the strong shear and the expected interaction with a cold
front, Fay will probably weaken below hurricane status during the
next few hours and begin the expected extratropical transition.

Fay is already embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies and is
moving toward the east-northwest or 070 degrees at 22 kt. Fay should
accelerate even further and turn more to the east. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the
previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 34.7N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 35.6N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 36.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/0600Z 35.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1800Z 33.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN