Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Los_Mochis_Sinaloense en Agosto 01, 2008, 22:28:32 pm
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bueno les aviso que se formo en frente a las costas de manzanillo a 150 km por hora y por otra el invest 92 esta en frente las costas de Acapulco lo que mas me llama la atencion es donde esta las costas de manzanillo asi que estare pendiente en ese sistema
Saludos
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pues segun veo hay dos supuestos INVEST aunque solo se reconoce oficialmente por el Navy al 92, las condiciones son algo favorbales, las pasadas de microondas ven bastante humedad, lo que si no le veo es ni organizacion ni un giro marcado creo que el NHC le da un 20%...esperemos... :O*
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Ahora ya no. Ha dejado de ser Invest 92E. Acaba de nacer la nueva DT 09E y parece que viene fuerte. No me extrañaría que mañana el NHC le pusiese nombre ¿Cual toca ahora?
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Ahora ya no. Ha dejado de ser Invest 92E. Acaba de nacer la nueva DT 09E y parece que viene fuerte. No me extrañaría que mañana el NHC le pusiese nombre ¿Cual toca ahora?
Ya ha nacido Hernan. Sera Huracan por un breve momento, aunque podria tardar mas, si las condiciones lo permiten :<<O
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En el navy aun lo tienen como NONAME, aqui una imagen de Hernan
(http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/3561/sm200808070400goes11xiryk6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
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Está que hierve el Pacífico Este............ Afortunadamente, casi todos estos ciclones se están sumergiendo en océano abierto sin causar daños en zonas habitadas.
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Ya casi es Huracan. Hernan va atrás de 94E y de la Tormenta Tropical KIKA ::) ::) ::) Una verdadera Feria en el Pacífico. beer
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Ya es huracán... aunque estaba pronosticado en el boletín del CNH de esta mañana, ha alcanzado ese estatus antes de lo previsto, pues se esperaba que los 65 KT los alcanzara dentro de 24 horas... Tanto es así, que en el último aviso los forecasters han revisado bien al alza el pico máximo de intensidad, situándolo en los 80 KT, desde los 65 que indicaban esta mañana.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081459
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008
AFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED
EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW
AT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS
AND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26
CELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS BASIS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
HEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN
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Ya es huracán... aunque estaba pronosticado en el boletín del CNH de esta mañana, ha alcanzado ese estatus antes de lo previsto, pues se esperaba que los 65 KT los alcanzara dentro de 24 horas... Tanto es así, que en el último aviso los forecasters han revisado bien al alza el pico máximo de intensidad, situándolo en los 80 KT, desde los 65 que indicaban esta mañana.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081459
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008
AFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED
EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW
AT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS
AND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26
CELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS BASIS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
HEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN
No creo que solo tenga esa vidilla, ya ha alcanzado los 75 kts y yo no descarto que se logre convertir en categoria 2 :o
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los pronosticos indican que si podria alcanzar a categoria 2
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los pronosticos indican que si podria alcanzar a categoria 2
Asi es. Solo 5 Knots y sera un Huracan de Categoría 2, aunque yo no descartaría que llegue a ser un Gran Huracán de categoría 3. El ojo es muy claro, tendrá 1 dia a 2 maximo para poder potenciarse más, en fin... Es bueno ver que estos ciclones no toquen tierra (:O*)
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Imagen preciosa a estas horas... Las 6:25 en España..
(http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/373/hernannn8.gif)
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Imagen preciosa a estas horas... Las 6:25 en España..
(http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/373/hernannn8.gif)
Es impresionante la belleza del ojo que se carga. Libre de nubosidad, yo diria que ya es un categoria 2. Es muy bonito para ser tan solo categoria 1 :o
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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21 GMT 08/06/08 12.9N 111.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/07/08 13.8N 112.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/07/08 14.5N 114.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 115.1W 60 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 116.7W 65 992 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/08/08 14.9N 117.8W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/08/08 15.0N 118.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/08/08 14.7N 119.9W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/08/08 14.8N 120.9W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/09/08 15.1N 121.7W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/09/08 15.5N 122.6W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
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Segun el NRL, Hernan ya es categoria con 100 kts ??? Es impresionante la manera en como se intensifica :</O
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me esta sorprendido este Huracán aver que pasa con un descuido sera categoria 4 :o
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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21 GMT 08/06/08 12.9N 111.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/07/08 13.8N 112.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/07/08 14.5N 114.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 115.1W 60 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 116.7W 65 992 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/08/08 14.9N 117.8W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/08/08 15.0N 118.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/08/08 14.7N 119.9W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/08/08 14.8N 120.9W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/09/08 15.1N 121.7W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/09/08 15.5N 122.6W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/09/08 15.7N 123.3W 120 956 Category 3 Hurricane
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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21 GMT 08/06/08 12.9N 111.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/07/08 13.8N 112.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/07/08 14.5N 114.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 115.1W 60 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/07/08 14.8N 116.7W 65 992 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/08/08 14.9N 117.8W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/08/08 15.0N 118.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/08/08 14.7N 119.9W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/08/08 14.8N 120.9W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/09/08 15.1N 121.7W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/09/08 15.5N 122.6W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/09/08 15.7N 123.3W 120 956 Category 3 Hurricane
Impresionante evolucion de Hernan. Como dice Los_mochis_sinaloense, si nos descuidamos, capaz y se convierta en categoria 4 :</O
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Este es el boletín 12 de discusión del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091457
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008
THE EYE OF HERNAN HAS BECOME DRAMATICALLY MORE DISTINCT IN GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS NOW
SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0937 UTC DEPICTED A SINGLE COMPLETE EYEWALL
AND AN EYE DIAMETER OF 20-25 N MI. THERE SEEMS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
HERNAN HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... HAVING UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS PROVIDES YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE
OF THE INABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE HUMAN
FORECASTER...TO CAPTURE AND CONVEY THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE
EPISODES WITH A DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EXACT
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 102 KT...WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
COMPROMISES AT 105 KT...BUT WITHOUT ACTUAL WIND DATA TO KNOW ANY
BETTER...IT IS POSSIBLE HERNAN IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS
ESTIMATE. UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 27 CELSIUS
NOW...AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE 26
CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN ROUGHLY 24 HOURS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME. A FASTER DECLINE IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEN SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN THE MODELS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
HERNAN HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND ONE MUST GIVE
SOME OF THE MODELS CREDIT FOR CORRECTLY FORECASTING THIS BEND
YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8...BUT A GRADUAL
TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKENING
HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN
WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.7N 123.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W 105 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.3N 127.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 128.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 131.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Este boletín es interesante porque, o bien los satélites erran en el cálculo o estimación de la SST, o es increíble que un ciclón sufra una intensificación tal sobre aguas a 27ºC ??? ??? ??? Que alguien me lo explique ??? ??? No creo que haya boyas meteorológicas que estén dando esos datos de SST. También se indica en la discusión lo inestable de los modelos meteorológicos en cuanto a predicción de intensidades y/o rumbos, y lo difícil de la labor del predictor a la hora de confeccionar los boletines.
Menos mal que HERNAN no está afectando lugares poblados, porque sino hubiera sido un desastre... (:B)
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Últimamente, estos Ciclones del Pacifico Este están agarrando de trapos a los Forecasters del CNH. Estos se intensifican cuando menos se lo imaginan. Bien dice Gale: Menos mal que HERNAN no está afectando lugares poblados, porque sino hubiera sido un desastre...