Nueva tormenta tropical en el Pacífico Noreste Podría alcanzar la categoría de huracán... y acercarse a Hawái, como ya hiciera Guillermo.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061449
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
circulation.  The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity estimate
is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.

The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
toward the west-northwest after 36 hours.  In about 72 hours, the
cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed by 96 hours.  The GFS-based guidance shows
a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.

Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days.  When the cyclone gains latitude late
in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii.  The official intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
the intensity forecast late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Ya hay imágenes visibles, que dejan ver a un bonito y poderoso huracán. Muy simétrico.

Una maravilla de huracán...

Ha seguido intensificándose de forma manifiesta, con un ojo muy pequeño de unos 20 km., y ya ha alcanzado la categoría 4 con vientos sostenidos de 120 KT.

WTPA45 PHFO 082044
TCDCP5

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015
 
HILDA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THIS MORNING. THE IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC DEEP COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
SURROUNDING A SMALL AND FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO CLIMB...AND WERE 6.5
FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 6.0 FROM PHFO. THE CIMSS RAW ADT WAS 6.5
AND THE NESDIS INI WAS 6.3. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 120 KT.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE AS HILDA MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER 28C WITH
LITTLE SHEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS...SSTS DECREASE A LITTLE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND SHEAR INCREASES A LITTLE...THUS A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH VALUES REACHING
50 KNOTS OR GREATER BY DAY 4...AS HILDA MOVES FARTHER UNDERNEATH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS WILL LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAYS 3
AND BEYOND.

HILDA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ABOUT 280/13 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BREAK OR COL
DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
SLOW. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HILDA WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THIS COL THAT
WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NW BY DAY 4. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 3 OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ALTER THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE CYCLONE AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN
PREVIOUSLY AT 96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A BEND BACK TOWARD THE
WNW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HILDA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW
SYSTEM BY THEN.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD