Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 26, 2015, 10:45:13 am
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Ya tenemos a la 12ª tormenta nombrada de la temporada en el EPAC, cuyo pronóstico le lleva a convertirse en huracán en los próximos días, e incluso acercarse a Hawái... La seguiremos.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260838
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015
Ignacio continues to gradually strengthen. Deep convection has been
persisting mainly over the western half of the circulation and
recent microwave images show increased banding as well. The Dvorak
classifications from all agencies have increased to T3.0/45 kt, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.
The tropical storm is currently in a generally favorable environment
of about 10 kt of southeasterly wind shear and over 29 deg C waters.
Since these conditions are not expected to change much during the
next few days, additional intensification appears likely. Although
all of the intensity guidance agrees on the strengthening trend,
they disagree on the intensification rate. The HWRF model shows
Ignacio strengthening fastest, while the SHIPS and LGEM models show
the cyclone gaining strength more gradually. The NHC intensity
forecast is between those scenarios and in best agreement with
the intensity model consensus. Some weakening is possible by the
end of the forecast period due to less favorable conditions.
The low-level center of the storm is difficult to locate. Using
recent microwave images and continuity, the initial motion estimate
is 260/6 kt. Mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north
and northeast of Ignacio during the next several days. This pattern
should cause the cyclone to move a little faster westward today and
then west-northwestward on Thursday. A continued west-northwestward
motion is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close
to a consensus of the models with a little more weight on the ECMWF
solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 12.3N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.3N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.6N 137.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 13.5N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.4N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 15.8N 144.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 17.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 18.3N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-ignacio-12e-pacifico-noreste-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29165;image)
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Evolución en el canal IR+RGB...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-qIXCoiMBCKA/Vd19ClTjc9I/AAAAAAAADMo/2_I5M2efayM/w720-h480-no/ign.gif)
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Ignacio se ha convertido en el 7º huracán de la temporada en el EPAC, y con perspectivas de llegar a "major"...
Hawái sigue en su punto de mira... ::)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270247
TCDEP2
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015
Ignacio's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve and
recent passive microwave satellite imagery indicates that the
cyclone has developed a large but closed eye, which is embedded in
the center of a smooth CDO feature. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined in all quadrants and is expanding. The initial
intensity of 65 kt is based on an average of satellite intensity
estimates of T4.4/75 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, T4.0/65 kt from TAFB,
and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. This makes Ignacio the seventh hurricane of
the 2015 eastern North Pacific season.
Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Ignacio has finally made
the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the motion estimate
is now 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue throughout the forecast period due to a strong subtropical
ridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep layer of
east-southeasterly steering flow. Although the GFS and ECMWF models
differ widely on the track of the hurricane after 72 hours, the
other reliable guidance models lie between those two aforementioned
extremes. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the
previous advisory track and a blend of the various consensus models.
Environmental conditions are expected to generally be favorable for
additional strengthening throughout the forecast period. The main
hindering factor will be modest vertical wind shear for the next
24-36 hours, after which the shear is expected to decrease to less
than 10 kt. However, given the very impressive outflow pattern that
has developed, along with the aforementioned eye feature, rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility during the next 24
hours. By days 4 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic conditions are
expected to become less favorable, and gradual weakening is
expected to occur during that time. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the
consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 12.2N 137.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 138.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 13.8N 140.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 14.6N 142.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.4N 144.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.7N 147.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 18.1N 150.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-ignacio-12e-pacifico-noreste-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29169;image)
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Ignacio se mantiene como huracán de categoría 1 en su camino hacia Hawài, aunque algo más intenso en la última actualización... Esto se observa bien en el loop de imágenes IR+RGB
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 08/25/15 13.1N 130.9W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/25/15 13.2N 131.7W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/25/15 13.2N 132.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/25/15 13.0N 133.1W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/26/15 12.3N 133.4W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/26/15 12.3N 134.1W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/26/15 12.2N 135.1W 60 999 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/26/15 11.9N 136.2W 65 998 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/15 12.2N 137.5W 75 992 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/27/15 12.6N 138.5W 85 985 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/27/15 12.9N 139.5W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/27/15 12.9N 140.8W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/28/15 13.3N 141.9W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/28/15 13.9N 143.1W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/28/15 14.1N 143.8W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/28/15 14.6N 144.5W 90 982 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/29/15 15.2N 145.2W 90 981 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/29/15 15.7N 146.0W 90 974 Category 1 Hurricane
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-FFTvM2_EEWo/VeGHlDJJM5I/AAAAAAAADUs/PsZO89jeUfQ/w720-h480-no/dfvbdf.gif)
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Se veía venir...
WTPA43 PHFO 291500
TCDCP3
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IGNACIO HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND WARMING IN INFRARED IMAGERY...WHILE
SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW NEARLY ENCIRCLE THE CENTER. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE EYE AND EYE WALL LED
TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T
NUMBERS. THESE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM
T5.0/90 KT TO T6.0/115 KT...AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAKES IGNACIO A
CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/07 KT...WITH
THE EYE WOBBLING ALONG ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND TO THE LEFT
OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED LITTLE...WITH IGNACIO FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CENTERED TO THE DISTANT NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...BUT THE TVCN CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE
NEARLY UNCHANGED OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...AS LATEST ITERATIONS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE LEFT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS WELL AS UPPER-AIR AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES...
INDICATE THAT IGNACIO CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE AN AREA OF VERY WEAK
SHEAR...IN A COL BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...AND TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS FOR THE HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SHEAR LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS IVCN IN ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY. AFTER
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE FACT THAT IGNACIO MAY BECOME ANNULAR
COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS IT MAY BECOME LESS PRONE TO
WEAKENING DUE TO NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. ADDITIONALLY...
SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. ASIDE FROM THESE
COMPLICATING FACTORS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FORECAST TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5.
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO NORTHEAST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
FOR THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL ISLANDS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE IGNACIO LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 12 HOURLY
FLIGHTS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...AFTER WHICH TIME FLIGHTS WILL OCCUR
AT 6 HOURLY INTERVALS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 15.9N 146.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.6N 147.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.6N 149.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 18.6N 150.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.7N 151.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.7N 154.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 26.5N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-FFTvM2_EEWo/VeGHlDJJM5I/AAAAAAAADUs/PsZO89jeUfQ/w720-h480-no/dfvbdf.gif)
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Respecto de Ignacio, el Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico indica la rareza de que Ignacio y Kilo sean en la cuenca dos categorías 4 a la vez... pero si añadimos a Jimena en el EPAC, es excepcional...
Ha mantenido intensidad, y parece que incluso ha sido anular. Pero ahora se espera debilitamiento progresivo mientras se acerca a Hawái. Pasará dejando las islas al norte, pero veremos cuánto de lejos...
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-ignacio-12e-pacifico-noreste-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29181;image)
WTPA43 PHFO 300302
TCDCP3
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
IGNACIO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED...20 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE A UNANIMOUS 6.0 FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND THE UW-CIMSS
ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 6.4. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...
WILL MAINTAIN THE 120 KT /CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE/
INTENSITY. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IGNACIO AT 0600 UTC. NOTE THAT HURRICANES IGNACIO AND
KILO ARE BOTH CATEGORY 4 AS OF THIS ADVISORY CYCLE...A VERY RARE
OCCURRENCE INDEED FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES
AT 8 KT...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF HAWAII
AND TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS OUR TRACK
BENDS MORE TO THE LEFT WITH TIME IN ANTICIPATION THAT IGNACIO WILL
WEAKEN A BIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE.
THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT IGNACIO.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE HURRICANE ARE STARTING TO GET PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS...THE SHEAR IS NEAR 10 KT...
BUT INCREASES TO 15-20 KT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND
WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND BECOME QUITE STRONG AS IGNACIO APPROACHES
HAWAII. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...DESPITE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C ALONG MOST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE WEAKENING WILL BE GRADUAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MORE
RAPID ONCE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.
OUR WEAKENING TREND IS NOT AS FAST AS THE SHIPS...BUT FASTER THAN
THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXPECTED OUTER EXTENT OF THE
34 KNOT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT REQUIRES MAINTAINING
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE ISSUANCE OF
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 17.0N 147.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.9N 148.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 20.0N 151.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 21.0N 153.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.0N 156.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 25.0N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 27.0N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-W3_zVIlVwlg/VeLCe5MqY2I/AAAAAAAADX0/koXx0qbEDco/w720-h480-no/gaer.gif)
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Eric Fisher @ericfisher 1 minhace 1 minuto
What does it look like inside the eye of a Cat 4 hurricane? Look at this photo of #Ignacio from @403PA! #Ignacio
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNr0VXHUYAA2cea.png:large)