Compara los dos últimos productos Se ve aire más seco en el 2º producto que en el 3º Es lo que no entiendo Como no sean esos fenómenos subsidentes que comentabas...

De verdad que a veces no entiendo los razonamientos de los meteorólogos del CNH... Cuando está claro que hay elementos adversos incidiendo sobre IGOR, parece que los ignoran, o no los ven Acaba de salir la actualización de productos y en el boletín de discusión, aunque se hacen eco de que los topes nubosos se han recalentado, ocasionando un descenso de los números DVORAK, mantienen el aviso en 60 KT. Me parece perfecto. Pero aunque la presentación en el satélite sigue mostrando ese ojo, está claro que IGOR está pasando por dificultades hoy. Incluso no se han dado cuenta de que la cizalladura ha subido hoy O eso, o los mapas de CIMSS que vemos nosotros no tienen la misma precisión que los que puedan ver ellos... Otra cosa es que, finalmente, consiga superarlas y se convierta en un coloso, cosa que parece clara. Lo adjunto, a ver qué os parece:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 111449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR.  WHILE THE
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE
KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 28C.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTINGLY...
WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  AT THIS POINT...I AM
INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED
THE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.  

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND
IS MOVING 275/17.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.  IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN.  WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE
SOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING
TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 17.4N  39.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N  42.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N  44.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N  47.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N  49.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N  53.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N  56.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  59.5W   110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Dentro de unos 45 minutos se actualizan los productos del CNH, así que veremos qué novedades aportan...

Imagen de media hora después... Monstruo...

Igor ya es un categoría 2. Sigue su imparable fortalecimiento:

85 nudos. IGOR, Categoría 2.

AL, 11, 2010091212, BEST,   0, 177N,  449W,  85,  975,  HU

Joooopé!


WTNT31 KNHC 121806
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Menuda bestia, ha sido explosivo su desarrollo, brutal !  en nada de tiempo un gran huracan categoria 4