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Autor Tema: GRAN Huracán IRENE, cat. 3, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011  (Leído 21750 veces)

Desconectado Fox Cane

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #30 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 00:47:45 am »
Hay un recon en Irene. Ni siquiera tuvo que despegar para localizar el centro de la tormenta, estaba justo sobre el aeropuerto, encima de ellos.  ;D
Al zorro chavales.

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #31 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 01:14:51 am »
Hora local de Caracas 18:40pm

Irene comienza a fortalecerse. Esta es la imágen infraroja actual:



He creado una animada con las últimas diez trazas del Radar de Puerto Rico para poder publicar y guardar este archivo. Este radar no permite descargar las animadas. Se observa como tiene un vortice en proceso de consolidación, sintomas de que se fortalece. El centro de la tormenta cruzando la Isla de Saint croix, tal como indica FOX:



Aca también deliberamos sobre la pinta "subtropical" que ha llevado hasta ahora.


Mantiene desplamiento al O, ligeramente al NO.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Caracas, Venezuela

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@climavzla

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #32 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 04:15:13 am »
Hora local 21:45pm

Continúa fortaleciéndose, ya la circulación en torno al centro en bien marcada. Sin embargo se conseguira con la orografía de Puerto Rico al cruzar cerca por el SE. Aca en esta animada no se visualiza una trayectoria definida. Lo cierto es que deja muchisima lluvia en las Islas Virgenes y ya la costa Este de Puerto Rico recibiendo los impactos:

Caracas, Venezuela

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #33 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 08:13:53 am »
Citar
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220259
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...
AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE.  FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.9N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N  67.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.4N  70.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1200Z 20.1N  72.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  24/0000Z 20.9N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 23.5N  77.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 26.5N  79.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 30.0N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #34 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 08:16:39 am »
Efectivamente, parece que el paso por la isla está rompiendo un poco su estructura central a la hora de intentar formar el ojo. Sin embargo, la convección es muy intensa y extensa... Adjunto última imagen de infrarrojo con el attach.

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #35 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 09:23:02 am »
En cualquier caso no pasará mucho tiempo sobre PR, parece que lleva un movimiento más NW del esperado, o esa sensación me da. Si peina la costa norte de RD puede ser un revival de Jeanne - 2004.
Y seguro que va a explotar cuando el centro salga de PR.



« Última modificación: Agosto 22, 2011, 09:30:50 am por Fox »
Al zorro chavales.

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Re: Tormenta tropical IRENE 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #36 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 11:23:50 am »
Ya es huracán cat.1

Citar
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.9N  68.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 19.7N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1800Z 20.4N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  24/0600Z 21.3N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 24.0N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 30.9N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #37 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 11:54:05 am »
Pues sí, Categoría 1 y enfilando Estados Unidos...


Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 GMT 08/20/11  14.9N 58.5W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/21/11  15.3N 59.9W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/21/11  16.4N 61.3W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/21/11  17.0N 63.2W     50       1007     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/21/11  17.7N 64.4W     50        999     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/22/11  17.9N 65.5W     70        993     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/22/11  18.4N 66.4W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #38 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 11:55:24 am »
Fíjate cómo ha mejorado la organización interna de IRENE :o :o :o :o La imagen de microonadas es elocuente. Sólamente el cuadrante SW parece poco sólido, pero esto será temporal.


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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #39 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 11:56:46 am »
Y viendo la energía que hay en su camino previsto, lo veo como un major, como mínimo, antes de su impacto en Florida...


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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #40 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 12:00:23 pm »
Los modelos vienen muy burros :o :o :o :o :o

HRWF-NOAA, apuesta por 106 KT frente a la costa este de Florida...
HRWF, por nada menos que 120 KT casi en el mismo sitio :o :o :o :o :o :o

Adjunto ambas salidas con el attach del foro.

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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #41 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 12:10:10 pm »
GFS y GFDL, por el mismo camino, aunque GFDL lo lleva a impactar en la punta de la Florida con 110 KT ::)

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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #42 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 12:14:02 pm »
Con la de adversidades que ha tenido que pasar Irene se ha mas fuerte aun hasta llegar a categoria 1, digno luchadora este huracan.

Muchos modelos ya decian que impactaria en Florida.


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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #43 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 16:22:53 pm »
Informe sobre Irene en español:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724657001/informe-sobre-huracan-irene.asp

Previsiones sobre su evolución:



« Última modificación: Agosto 22, 2011, 21:51:09 pm por jota »
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Re: Huracán IRENE, cat. 1, 09L - 97L potencial huracán peligroso - AGOSTO 2011
« Respuesta #44 en: Agosto 22, 2011, 16:27:32 pm »
Irene, un major impactando en las Carolinas, según GFS y ECMWF.

Al zorro chavales.

 



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