Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 27, 2015, 10:32:07 am
-
Y otra tormenta tropical más en el EPAC...
Y esta llamada a convertirse en un poderoso huracán...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-_8RNhsUfrDI/Vd7LGmi1RoI/AAAAAAAADOI/k7wfSEwqxMQ/w720-h480-no/jim.gif)
-
8º huracán de la temporada en el EPAC...
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280835
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
-
El nacimiento de un monstruo :o :o :o :o :o
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1ZvvhqXMCP8/VeDfGZjnBxI/AAAAAAAADR8/siKO0FsR7Vc/w720-h480-no/vbbgf.gif)
-
Esta noche, tal como se esperaba ayer a última hora, Jimena ha pegado el gran catapúm...
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290852
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with
a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus
outflow in all quadrants. The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,
a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.
While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for
further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause
fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,
Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next
several days. A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic
and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less
conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.
The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the
statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on
the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.
The initial motion estimate is 270/8. Jimena's heading should
become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general
direction for the next several days while it moves around the
subtropical ridge. As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around
140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96
hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new
track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to
the adjustment made on the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/--Kph0vwtb4s/VeGEfVnewKI/AAAAAAAADTY/pkIrb0y-kYY/w720-h480-no/jime.gif)
-
Así lo veía ayer tarde el satélite Suomi NPP en medio del proceso de RI
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNmPwNdWEAEC0IF.png:large)
-
油井 亀美也 Kimiya.Yui @Astro_Kimiya 2 hHace 2 horas
Hurricane JIMENA. It's really scary to see the eye of the hurricane closely...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNl0z3OU8AAIsZS.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNl0z2JUwAIAROS.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNl0z2HVAAA6cXv.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNl0z0PUwAAX7MR.jpg)
-
Jimena sigue como categoría 4 aunque l"liado" con su ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo... no parece que vaya a alcanzar ya la categoría 5.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300251
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Jimena continues to undergo an eyewall replacement, with significant
inner-core structural changes seen in satellite data throughout
the day. Microwave images show a small inner eyewall rotating
around an irregularly-shaped outer eyewall at about 60 n mi radius,
the latter which could be slowly contracting. Although Jimena's
cloud pattern has fluctuated some during this period of inner-core
change, its overall organization has remained about the same
since the last advisory. Satellite classifications seem to bear
this out, with intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt
from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 0000 UTC. These are blended
with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 6.1/117 kt to keep the initial
intensity estimate at 120 kt.
The intensity forecast is challenging. The large-scale environment
is forecast to remain relatively favorable during the next day or
two, apart from some north-northwesterly shear associated with a
cold low to the northeast of Jimena. This could allow an
opportunity for reintensification if the current eyewall
replacement fully plays out, but predicting intensity fluctuations
due to inner-core dynamics is nearly impossible and beyond the
scope of this forecast. Thus, a slow decrease in intensity is
indicated in the new forecast as large-scale conditions only
gradually become less conducive. This is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical guidance. As Jimena gradually gains latitude
later in the forecast period, global models show a minor increase in
westerly shear while other thermodynamic factor remain generally
neutral, except for slowly decreasing SSTs. These factors suggests
a slow decay of the cyclone, and the new intensity forecast is in
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus that shows a
monotonic decrease in intensity from days 3 to 5.
The eye of Jimena has been wobbling quite a bit, but smoothing
through these yields a faster initial motion estimate of 295/11.
Jimena should continue moving west-northwestward during the next few
days as it approaches the western end of a subtropical ridge around
140W. A weakness in the ridge around this longitude should induce a
significant deceleration by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is in
excellent agreement through the first 2 days, with less-than-typical
spread beyond that time. The new track forecast is faster and
adjusted slightly southward and then westward after day 3, but not
as far south or west as the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 13.3N 127.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bMdotptTlT8/VeLDVa2ezXI/AAAAAAAADYk/QsQkolSgTIc/w720-h480-no/jimen.gif)