Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Octubre 06, 2011, 21:45:31 pm
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Es nueva, pegadita y al E de IRWIN 8)
10E.TEN.30kts.1006mb.11.3N.106.4W
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4158/vist.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/vist.jpg/)
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Ya es Tormenta Tropical... título cambiado! ;)
TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
...JOVA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 108.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
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Gracias bretema ;)
Sigue subiendo JOVA. Pronto será cat. 1 8)
10E.JOVA.50kts.999mb.13.4N.110.1W
(http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/7519/avng.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/692/avng.jpg/)
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Trayectoria, parece que tocará tierra y no precisamente debilitado Todo esto de momento, no hay nada seguro :-X
(http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/4690/201110e.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/838/201110e.png/)
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Ya tenemos a Jova como categoría 1 :D Tiene vientos sostenidos de 85 mph y rachas de 105 mph. La presión central es de 980.
Y atención a México, sobretodo a los estados de Colima, Jalisco y Michoacan que lo mas seguro es que impacte por esa zona y segun las previsiones como un mayor :o :o :-X
(http://i54.tinypic.com/dcctxe.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 12m
La cuenca EPAC con dos interesantes sistemas: Jova es un huracán CAT1; e Irwin como tormenta tropical. Las visibles actuales sugieren posible fujiwhara entre ambos sistemas:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-9.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-7.jpg)
Lo mas interesante es que ambos sistemas podrían impactar las costas mexicanas, uno detrás del otro, lo que me lleva a pensar que JOVA se arrastra consigo a su hermano menor, por lo que la interacción entre ambos sistemas es altamente probable.
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Me gusta mucho esta imagen. Se ven en la misma toma, a JOVA justo delante de la costa de México, detrás de ella a IRWIN, y en la esquina inferior derecha al INVEST 99 :D :D
(http://i51.tinypic.com/jfalqv.jpg)
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Wow... Qué chulada. Y mucho ojo, que parece que este ciclón se encamina a las costas mexicanas ::) ::) ::)
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Según el histórico de wunderground, el movimiento que va a seguir JOVA no es nada habitual ::) ::) ::) Adjunto la imagen con el attach.
Encima puede alcanzar la categoría 3 antes de hacer impacto en tierra.
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JOVA, gran huracán de categoría 3 :-X
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100901
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOVA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SMALL EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 105 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL CYCLES COULD
OCCUR...BUT JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL IN MEXICO. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...THE UPDATE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE
UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE.
JOVA HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 085/4 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. A SECOND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEST
OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...AND
NORTHWARD IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND SHOW JOVA APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Brutal la imagen publicada por Tormentones!! :o Como me gustaría estar ahí para hacer algunas fotos...
Salu2
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Hora local de Caracas 12m
Visible
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-10.jpg)
Detalle del eyewall:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-8.gif)
Es un poderoso sistema que podría alcanzar la CAT4, sin embargo proyecciones estiman que impacte como CAT3.
En perspectiva con Irwin e INV99L:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-5.jpg)
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Brutales estas últimas imágenes, Eric :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o La última actualización de productos del NHC confirma que JOVA ha seguido intensificándose en las últimas horas, aunque de forma más gradual, encontrándose justo por debjo de la intensidad de vientos necesaria para clasificarlo como de categoría 4 :-X Podría alcanzar esa categoría antes de que acabe el día en esa zona. Cito el parte de discusión:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 101447
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS
WARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF
COLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER
EAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE
INCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT
IS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS
BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF...
ECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT...
A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.
JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST
A MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL
WITH JOVA.
INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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(http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/7185/jova.jpg)
:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
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Ha perdido algo de intensidad en las últimas horas... No demasiado, pero ha bajado a 105 KT ::) Las bandas convectivas asociadas al ciclón ya están comenzando a afectar a la costa mexicana.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110235
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...
AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF
T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30
DEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO OF
THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Hora local de Caracas 10:40am
El huracán Jova se mantiene como CAT3 y se desplaza hacia las costas mexicanas. Se espera impacte en horas de la tarde, horario del pacifico Este, noche hora local de Venezuela. Por alla en horas de la madrugada
Alertas activadas:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-11.jpg)
Nivel de amenaza:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-6.jpg)
Visible:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/d-7.jpg)
Infraroja, con su hermano menor Irwin:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-9.jpg)
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Aunque estas webcam sólo se actualizan a intervalos, pueden ser interesantes para ver la llegada de Jova (si aguantan).
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-morelia.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-patzcuaro.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-uruapan-plaza.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-uruapan-centro.php
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-guadalajara-centro.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-guadalajara.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta.html
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-patzcuaro.html
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La web del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de México no funciona... Debe de haber una avalancha masiva. Las imágenes de radar tienen que ser elocuentes porque hay una banda convectiva asociada a JOVA que lleva muchas horas ya azotando la zona costera mexicana.
En cuanto a su intensidad, no se contemplan cambios sustanciales manteniendo los 100 KT en la última actualización de productos, la n23, del CNH.
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Trayectoria, parece que tocará tierra y no precisamente debilitado Todo esto de momento, no hay nada seguro :-X
Pues parece que al final... :-X Esas bandas que están azotando la costa me preocupan :-X
Me sigue sorprendiendo que mantenga la cat.3 con pico de 100 kts pegada a costa. :o
10E.JOVA.100kts.963mb.17.6N.105.7W
(http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/9801/visv.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/849/visv.jpg/)
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Hora local de Caracas 19:30pm
Jova impactará la costa como huracán CAT2. Esta es la pinta actual
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000006-27.jpg)