JULIA está mejorando poco a poco... En la última imagen de microondas del NRL Navy se observa que está intentando construir un eyewall

El 5º de la temporada!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 140837
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE.  ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24
TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
JULIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.1N  29.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N  30.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N  31.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.7N  33.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  36.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  42.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  48.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Puede ser, Alexy

Se intensifica Julia... Creo que ya es un categoría 3...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150531
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 31.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Vaya tela con JULIA! Con el aspecto tan "desgarbado" que tiene, y se ha convertido en un "major" sin comerlo ni beberlo



Y es curioso porque la cizalladura encima de él no es nada buena tiene una isotaca de 30 nudos encima Por una vaguada que se le aproxima.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150532
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
EYE.  A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0530Z 16.9N  31.3W   110 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W   120 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Pues suma y sigue... Ahora Categoría 4  

WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES