Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Tormentones en Septiembre 12, 2010, 12:04:19 pm
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Abro este topic por que seguramente tendremos en las proximas horas a JULIA :D1 :D1
De momento el CNH dice esto:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Efectivamente; el NHC le da un 90%.
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Para tener a Julia tenemos que esperar un poco.
AL, 12, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 125N, 208W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, S,
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/1264/depresiontropical12l.jpg) (http://img267.imageshack.us/i/depresiontropical12l.jpg/)
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NHC actualiza y concede 100% de posibilidad de desarrollo ;)
2. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
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Pues nada. A falta de confirmación oficial por parte del NHC, tenemos a la 12ª depresión tropical
DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 12L
30kts-1006mb
(http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/1159/201009121400msg2vis12lt.jpg)
EDITO: NHC está actualizando en este momento ;)
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Ya tenemos el aviso del NHC número 1
000
WTNT32 KNHC 121453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 21.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO
TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201012_sat.jpg)
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De momento la prevision lo manda a ser un huracán ;)
(http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9650/juliau.gif)
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Según reza el último parte de datos sobre al 12L, JULIA está muy muy cerca................. ;)
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Los modelos le llevan a moverse con más rapidez que IGOR, de modo que se le podría acercar bastante... Otros dos ciclones candidatos para interaccionar en un efecto Fujiwara ;)
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Destaco este comentario de Jeff Masters en su blog, sobre el pronóstico de intensidad de este 92L:
Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.
Comenta que en el momento de escribir el CNH le daba un 50% de posibilidades de desarrollo, pero él le da 70%. Por otro lado, cada vez tiene menos oportunidades de alcanzar Yucatán como huracán, por lo que avanza manteniendo esa desorganización, porque no tendría tiempo. Lo más curioso y que destaco en naranja: que la tormenta puede sufrir otro de sus misterioros colapsos de la convección, en los que pierde la mayor parte de su actividad convectiva :P Vamos, que no se sabe por qué pasa esto ;D Impedimento que ve y que comenta Santi: el aire seco...
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Hora local de Caracas 10 pm
DT12L
Sobre las Cabo Verde, inminente que amanezca con nombre, Julia
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/2.jpg)
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Boletin de las 11 pm
A cambiar nombre al tópico
...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE CONVIERTE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL JULIA...LA
DECIMA DE LA TEMPORADA DE HURACANES DEL ATLANTICO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.5 NORTE 23.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 110 MILLAS...175 KILOMETROS AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE MAS AL SUR
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS
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Habemus JULIA, y puede convertirse en otro huracán más... ¿Habrá sorpresas con JULIA en este año de temperaturas atlánticas récord? Veremos evil
000
WTNT42 KNHC 130248
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT
FROM SAB. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE
DEPRESSION TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DURING THAT TIME JULIA WILL BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER AND AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS ALL BRING JULIA TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN TWO DAYS
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREAFTER...JULIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. IT IS A BIT SURPRISING
GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE...IF ANY...WEAKENING. BECAUSE OF THAT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL KEEP JULIA AT 65 KT AT DAYS 3-5 FOR NOW.
THE CENTER OF JULIA WAS RELOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF
NEAR 40W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...
UKMET...GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 13.5N 23.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 25.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.9N 27.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 15.9N 29.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.1N 31.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 20.9N 35.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 27.5N 46.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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JULIA sigue fortaleciéndose... Y podría convertirse en otro huracán 8) Veremos si hay Fujiwara con IGOR o no. De momento, es evidente que no.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 132039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT.
BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY
...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE LGEM...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
HOURS AND THEN BASICALLY MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4.
AFTERWARD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER HURRICANE IGOR WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR
IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS JULIA WEAKENING
TO A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295/12. THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND THE GFDL ARE NOW INDICATING MORE
OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A
DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF JULIA. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A
SHALLOWER VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE JULIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE
MODELS THAT INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.3N 27.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 29.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 32.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 34.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.8N 39.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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JULIA está mejorando poco a poco... En la última imagen de microondas del NRL Navy se observa que está intentando construir un eyewall ;)
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Ya tenemos HURACÁN JULIA...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
FIFTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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El 5º de la temporada! ;)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 140837
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE. ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24
TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
JULIA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.1N 29.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 16.8N 30.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.1N 31.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.7N 33.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 36.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 24.5N 42.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 27.5N 48.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Las predicciones de fortalecimiento de Julia son ahora mas intensas que antes,incluso algunos modelos afirman que se quede al borde de la categoría 2... :o
En la siguiente imagen me llama mucho la atención el recurve que da Julia.....¿posible efecto fujiwara con Igor sea el responsable?
(http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5633/recurve.png)
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Puede ser, Alexy ;)
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JULIA tiene un aspecto más bien feíllo... En la última discusión del CNH he leído que ese virazón podría venir influído por una vaguada planetaria, más que por una interacción con IGOR...
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(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/4458/99646512.jpg)
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Ciclon Tropical te pido por favor que cada vez que pongas un mapa nos expliques lo que indica al menos.
Veo que dejas la imagen sin comentario alguno y no es una sola vez son bastantes veces.
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:50 pm
Esa dorsal de aire seco por el NO parece estar afectando el progreso de julia y ya muestra señales de colapso. Amanecerá y veremos
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/imagen_000001.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:30 pm
Y con tal mala pinta alcanza la CAT2 :o :o
...JULIA SE INTENSIFICA A CATEGORIA 2...
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...16.7 NORTE 30.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 450 MILLAS...725 KILOMETROS AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS
ISLAS MAS AL SUR DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH...165 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 295 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARAS...28.76 PULGADAS
-
Se intensifica Julia... Creo que ya es un categoría 3...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150531
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
...JULIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 31.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
-
Así es, otro ciclón que se ha desarrollado muy rápido esta temporada y ojo que se puede fortalecer aún más según el último boletín del NHC
LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE JULIA SE HA FORTALECIDO
RAPIDAMENTE DURANTE LAS HORAS PASADAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KILOMETROS POR
HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. JULIA ES ACTUALMENTE UN HURACAN
CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY.
-
Vaya tela con JULIA! Con el aspecto tan "desgarbado" que tiene, y se ha convertido en un "major" sin comerlo ni beberlo :o :o
(http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/8039/juliacat3.jpg)
Y es curioso porque la cizalladura encima de él no es nada buena ??? tiene una isotaca de 30 nudos encima :-X :-X :-X :-X Por una vaguada que se le aproxima.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 150532
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
EYE. A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0530Z 16.9N 31.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
-
Adjunto otra imagen de infrarrojo en que se le ve, con IGOR a la izquierda.
-
Pues suma y sigue... Ahora Categoría 4 :o :o
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
...JULIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
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Vaya carrerita que ha pillado este también :-X
15 GMT 09/12/10 12.7N 21.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/12/10 13.3N 22.8W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/13/10 13.5N 23.5W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/13/10 14.4N 24.6W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/13/10 14.9N 26.1W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/13/10 15.3N 27.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/14/10 15.6N 28.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/14/10 16.1N 29.0W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/14/10 16.2N 29.5W 85 984 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/14/10 16.7N 30.2W 85 982 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/15/10 16.7N 30.9W 105 974 Category 2 Hurricane
05 GMT 09/15/10 16.9N 31.3W 125 955 Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/15/10 17.3N 31.8W 135 950 Category 4 Hurricane
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Una pregunta:
¿Creeis que entre Julia y Igor ha habido un efecto fujiwarra?
Para mí es una gran sorpresa que Julia sea huracán categoria 4, cuando los pronosticos oficiales decián que podía ser huracán categoria 1.
Por cierto, el Gfs manda a Julia muy cerca de las Azores.
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Una pregunta:
¿Creeis que entre Julia y Igor ha habido un efecto fujiwarra?
Para mí es una gran sorpresa que Julia sea huracán categoria 4, cuando los pronosticos oficiales decián que podía ser huracán categoria 1.
Por cierto, el Gfs manda a Julia muy cerca de las Azores.
Y tampoco entiendo cómo JULIA ha conseguido tal intensidad, cuando los mapas de cizalladura de CIMSS marcan una cizalladura bastante fuerte sobre el ciclón, 30 nudos esta mañana ??? ??? ??? Es alucinante. Hay cosas que son inexplicables ::)
Además, lo que dice Sagrajeño... GFS nos lo trae como sistema independiente aunque debilitado. Interesante y a vigilar...
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El efecto Fujiwara implica que un ciclon poderoso, normalmente un major, hace desbiarse de su ruta uno menor (cat1-2; o t.t..) y hace que rote a su alrededor, no implica que le preste energias y lo haga mayor. Ademas en este caso los dos son casi de la misma fuerza, algo mas si cabe Igor aunque Julia puede seguir evolucionando si se lo permite la ingente cizalladura.
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Lo comento en el hilo de records.... JULIA ha superado el récord de FRED del año pasado como huracán más intenso en la zona en la que se encuentra... Además, es muy pequeñito! Adjunto imagen con el attach.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 150859
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
A RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS WAS
MOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. JULIA IS STILL STRENGTHENING...
BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED LAST EVENING
AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS NOT WARMED
MUCH...THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115
KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY...
MAKING JULIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. JULIA COULD STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A
MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS AS JULIA
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THEN INTO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR. THE NHC OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING OF
JULIA.
THE HURRICANE HAS NOW TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A 12-HOUR
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/9. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JULIA NEARS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE IS STEERED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEW GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.3N 31.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 33.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 35.9W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 22.2N 39.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 23.4N 42.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 26.3N 48.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 30.0N 50.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 49.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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El efecto Fujiwara implica que un ciclon poderoso, normalmente un major, hace desbiarse de su ruta uno menor (cat1-2; o t.t..) y hace que rote a su alrededor, no implica que le preste energias y lo haga mayor. Ademas en este caso los dos son casi de la misma fuerza, algo mas si cabe Igor aunque Julia puede seguir evolucionando si se lo permite la ingente cizalladura.
No creo que haya tal efecto... Lo hubieran comentado los meteos del CNH. Hay una distancia mínima que debe de haber entre los centros de los dos ciclones para que se produzca este efecto.
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:o :o :o :o :o Comparad tamaño con IGOR ! Es supercompacto!
(http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/2282/juliax.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:15 am
Yo estoy sorprendido con esta denominación que alcanza Julia :o :o, ni por la mente me cruzo que iba a amanecer con semejante categoría.
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/2-3.gif)
sin embargo la imágen de vapor de agua sugiere que le está entrando aire seco pero mejor no digo nada :-X :-X
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/imagen_000002.jpg)
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Joder con JULIA :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o Otro igual que IGOR :-X :-X :-X
Para ser un cat.4 no muestra ojo ??? ??? ???
(http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/1668/julip.jpg)
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JULIA está siendo pasto de unas condiciones que empeoran por momentos...
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Si, los del NHC ya lo han degradado a categoría 2
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Se está internando en un área con una cizalladura muy intensa, de más de 30 nudos, lo cual está ayudando a que el aire seco entre en su estructura desde el suroeste... Curiosamente, GFS lo mantiene con una cierta intensidad en los próximos 3 días, y se ha estado volviendo loco en la forma en que iba a evolucionar mientras se acercaba a Europa. Ayer por la mañana, GFS lo mantenía como entidad independiente acercándose a la Península; por la tarde, ejecutando una transición extratropical sobre Azores al interaccionar con una borrasca a esa latitud... Y hoy le lleva a ser absorbido por IGOR en transición Extratropical, para el 24 de septiembre :P
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Adjunto trayectoria prevista... Lo mantienen como huracán durante 3 días más... Y yo no me creo eso ni de coña. Yo creo que no aguantará ni 24 horas... Después, lo mandan rumbo Azores ;)
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:o a azores y a algun sitio mas
(http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/6265/at201012model.gif) (http://img826.imageshack.us/i/at201012model.gif/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:45 pm
Julia se mantiene como CAT1, el aire seco ha minimizado a casi nada la convección, sin embargo el ojo se mantiene intacto, se lo robó a Karl :o
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/9.jpg)
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El outflow de Igor está prduciendo cizalladura del norte de 40 nudos a Julia
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(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201012_ensmodel.gif) ;D ;D ;D
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El outflow de Igor está prduciendo cizalladura del norte de 40 nudos a Julia
Lo que decía, lo confirman desde el NHC.
JULIA IS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR. GIVEN THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT JULIA...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 24.2N 46.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 25.8N 48.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 28.3N 51.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 30.9N 52.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 33.2N 51.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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JULIA
Lo poco que queda de este "huracán" esta siendo cizallado por el outflow de IGOR, terminará absorbido por "El Terrible"
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 180831
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010
STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JULIA. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...AND A BLEND OF THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
OF 50 KT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST. JULIA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED COOL SSTS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY IGOR IN
ABOUT 96 HRS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS
NOW 320/16. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY...WITH A NORTHWARD TURN TOMORROW AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT JULIA WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM IGOR THAT THE LARGER
HURRICANE WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF JULIA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE RIGHT EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE GFS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 27.4N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 29.5N 51.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 32.3N 52.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 34.5N 51.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 36.0N 49.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 39.5N 44.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY IGOR
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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JULIA se está quedado en bolas... Vamos, un remolino de nubes bajas y la convección completamente apartada al SSE ::) Estará interesante ver cómo IGOR absorbe lo que quede de JULIA evil Un ciclón caníbal !
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/1540/juliasheared.jpg)
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Durante la jornada de hoy hubieron algunas novedades con JULIA, porque consiguió hacer que nueva convección tapara el LLCC, dando nuevas energías al ciclón... Y ahí sigue... Ahora con movimiento E-NE ;)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 191458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
JULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD
WEAKEN SOON. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
CENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT. JULIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE
ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 34.2N 50.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 34.9N 48.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 35.6N 46.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 36.2N 44.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 21/1200Z 37.5N 42.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Pedro por favor,tengo una duda ???
La verdad que este año por falta de tiempo no estoy al tanto con los seguimientos tropicales en el Atlántico.Pero observando ahora mismo las imagenes del sat,creo que la vaguada que se encuentra a nuestro Noroeste que posiblemente nos afecte ó nos roze entre el Miercoles y Jueves está absobiendo la convección de Julia ó lo que queda de ella y se dirige al SE.
Eso me parece a mi viendo las imagenes estas del sat.... ¿Cierto? ::)
(http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/9752/isaehatl.gif) (http://img819.imageshack.us/i/isaehatl.gif/)
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Es posible que esté habiendo una interacción, al menos, entre la vaguada en la que está embebida esa borrasca, y la nubosidad asociada a JULIA y/o sus masas de aire. De hecho, ayer comentaba en el hilo de modelos que el GFS mostraba una atmósfera muy dinámica e interesante para los próximos días. A seguir qué hacen IGOR y JULIA, porque no tengo tan claro que el primero vaya a absorber al segundo mientras hace transición extratropical...
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Gracias por la aclaración Pedro! ;)
(http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/6526/70504677.gif) (http://img4.imageshack.us/i/70504677.gif/)
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Es posible que esté habiendo una interacción, al menos, entre la vaguada en la que está embebida esa borrasca, y la nubosidad asociada a JULIA y/o sus masas de aire. De hecho, ayer comentaba en el hilo de modelos que el GFS mostraba una atmósfera muy dinámica e interesante para los próximos días. A seguir qué hacen IGOR y JULIA, porque no tengo tan claro que el primero vaya a absorber al segundo mientras hace transición extratropical...
Lo último que he comentado también se toma en consideración en el último boletín sobre JULIA:
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010
JULIA AGAIN PROVIDED A SURPRISE FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW WITH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS MEASURED FROM THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER THAN
WHAT WAS SUGGESTED FROM CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE 0046Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT
LEAST 45 KT...DESPITE A FAIRLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 0600Z TAFB AND SAB DATA-T DVORAK NUMBERS REMAIN AT
A 2.0...OR 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...ASSUMING
SOME WEAKENING SINCE THE ASCAT PASS.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY
EXTREMELY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR. THE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIA IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING
ADVECTED AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE SOME TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AROUND 36 HOURS...JULIA
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR AS SHOWN BY
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THE
CYCLONE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF IGOR TO PREVENT THE ABSORPTION.
INSTEAD...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS JULIA AS A SEPARATE CYCLONE FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS...THOUGH BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT TWO DAYS
FROM NOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS...MINUS THE
ECMWF...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
AS JULIA SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER SUB-26C WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH QUITE HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER INITIAL CYCLONE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR AN ENLARGEMENT OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 35.5N 47.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 36.1N 46.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 37.6N 45.3W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 21/1800Z 39.6N 43.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NNNN
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Mira lo que dice ECMWF para el 24... JULIA todavía está ahí, cerquita de Azores... :O*
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Curiosamente, GFS observa algo similar... JULIA desaparece de los mapas a 24 horas, pero después resurge como una pequeña curva en los mapas isobáricos y de isotermas a 850 hPa... Me recuerda esto a la depresión tropical nº19, que se descubrió a posteriori, en la temporada de huracanes de 2005... Y que luego sirvió de germen para el desarrollo del VINCE... Así que, yo sigo con mis palomitas :O* ;D
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Curioso!! Yo creo que viendo las imagenes del sat está mas que claro que en las próximas horas se disipará y la convección se la robará la vaguada y la bolsa de aire frío que se situará entre Madeira y Azores en las próximas 48h. ::)
PD: Exacto Pedro yo pienso lo mismo que lo que indica el GFS. ;)
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JULIA, según CIMSS, bajo una cizalladura descomunal... Es normal, por la cercanía de la vaguada que le está robando nubosidad. La convección está completamente desplazada del LLCC, al ESE del mismo, como se puede observar. Tengo dudas de que el centro se mueva según la previsión del CNH y que aparece en el mapa.
(http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/2448/julia200910.png)
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Y que luego sirvió de germen para el desarrollo del VINCE... Así que, yo sigo con mis palomitas :O* ;D
Estaremos pendientes Pedro!
Aunque la cizalladura en las próximas 24h por esa zona (entre Madeira y Azores) no estará muy favorable que digamos :o>
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Las temperaturas en las aguas atlánticas subtropicales muestran valores muy majos... como para provocar sorpresas con los ciclones que circulen sobre ellas, a pesar de la cizalladura evil
(http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/8071/s88g18002009.gif)
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INSISITO: hay varios modelos que ven a JULIA como un ciclón independiente a bastantes horas vista... Incluso aproximándose a Azores, después de escapar a duras penas de IGOR en transición extratropical. Alguno, hasta va más allá, llevando a lo que quede de JULIA, que lo más seguro es que sea una masa nubosa con escasa circulación, o una borrasquita extratropicalizada, a Galicia. Interés en los próximos días, por tanto ;)
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INSISITO: hay varios modelos que ven a JULIA como un ciclón independiente a bastantes horas vista... Incluso aproximándose a Azores, después de escapar a duras penas de IGOR en transición extratropical. Alguno, hasta va más allá, llevando a lo que quede de JULIA, que lo más seguro es que sea una masa nubosa con escasa circulación, o una borrasquita extratropicalizada, a Galicia. Interés en los próximos días, por tanto ;)
Habrá que echarle un ojo, pues!
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La salida de las 12 del GFS aun pone más de manifiesto esta circunstancia de mantener a JULIA como ciclón independiente de IGOR durante los próximos días, y aproximarse a Azores. Sin embargo, el CNH publica en su último boletín sobre el ciclón, que éste está perdiendo sus características tropicales, pasando a ser una baja remanente... Veremos a ver... evil :O* Adjunto la última imagen en la que se ve que la cizalladura ha suprimido toda la convección del ciclón. Sin embargo, persiste una vigorosa circulación en niveles bajos.
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INSISITO: hay varios modelos que ven a JULIA como un ciclón independiente a bastantes horas vista... Incluso aproximándose a Azores, después de escapar a duras penas de IGOR en transición extratropical. Alguno, hasta va más allá, llevando a lo que quede de JULIA, que lo más seguro es que sea una masa nubosa con escasa circulación, o una borrasquita extratropicalizada, a Galicia. Interés en los próximos días, por tanto ;)
Qué interesante, no me había dado cuenta... estaremos muy atentos. :O*
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Estaba esperando a que salieran imágenes del canal visible, de JULIA, y ya las tenemos. Está al oeste de Azores, y no parece que se haya movido demasiado... ::) Adjunto la última disponible:
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He creído leer comentarios respecto de JULIA, que va a volver a reintensificarse... Pero no sé... Y Jose lo acaba de comentar en el hilo de seguimiento canario... Interesante ;D
Ostras! Si es que se han equivocado y han escrito JULIA en el boletín de LISA ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.
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JULIA no ha muerto ¿eh? Sigue por ahí coleando, en medio del Atlántico :D1
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Sorprendentemente, JULIA ha generado un impresionante BURST convectivo esta madrugada :o :o :o :o :o :o Adjunto imagen con la función attach del foro (solo visible para usuarios registrados y con sesión iniciada en el foro).
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Qué cerquita está de las Azores... ::)
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:-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X Como si por al menos unas horas hubiese querido volver a recuperar su estatus de tormenta tropical... Y contrapronóstico... Pinchad en la siguiente imagen para ampliar.
(http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/7682/2010923600msg27s1grid.th.jpg) (http://img811.imageshack.us/i/2010923600msg27s1grid.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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Curioso, pero todavía queda una pequeña circulación remanente, con un pequeño borbotón convectivo, de lo que fue JULIA un día ;D Adjunto imagen con el attach. En el centro está lo que queda del ciclón.
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Curioso, pero en la circulación remanente de lo que fue JULIA, se siguen formando borbotones convectivos que la mantienen viva :D1
(http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/5914/goes191520102692bu5am.jpg)
Y una imagen de alta resolución (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2010269/crefl1_143.A2010269143500-2010269144000.500m.jpg), de hoy ;)
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Ajá... ex-JULIA sigue bajo el punto de vista de los pre-INVESTs, con la designación de PGI43L... Y mira por dónde, CIMSS marca escasa cizalladura y buena vorticidad... Ya sabemos por qué ha resurgido la convección en las últimas horas 8)
(http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/7753/pgi43l.gif)
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Jajajaja.... ExJULIA sigue en boca de los meteos del CNH ;D
OTRA AREA DE BAJA PRESION...LOS REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
JULIA...ESTAN LOCALIZADOS CERCA DE 350 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA
Y SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. CONDICIONES NO ESTAN
CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y EXISTE UNA
PROBABILIDAD BAJA...10 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA
EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
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Estado actual de los remanentes de JULIA, bonitas dos pelotas convectivas... Adjunto con attach: