Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 4 minHace 4 minutos 5-day forecast from mesoscale models (GFDL & HWRF) at 06z is troubling for TS #Kilo SW of Hawaii -- both Cat 4+
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 8 hHace 8 horas Ver traducciónMesoscale HWRF + GFDL at 18z updated.Both see Cat 4+ #Kilo SSW of Kauai in 4-5 days. Track uncertain after that.
WTPA41 PHFO 292057TCDCP1HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP0320151100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015 KILO INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADISTINCT EYE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAND HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXESCAME IN AT 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC.THE UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE FROM 1800 UTC CAME IN AT 110 KT. BASED ONA BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 110 KT FORTHIS ADVISORY...WHICH MEANS THAT KILO HAS GONE THROUGH RAPIDINTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE.THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 270/10 KT. THE SHORT TERMMOTION HAS BEEN A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT THE GENERALSCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME. NAMELY...KILO WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD AWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALLSHOW THIS SOLUTION BUT DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.ACCOUNTING FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE LEFT...THE CURRENT FORECAST HASBEEN ADJUSTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEYOND 24 HOURS THROUGH THEREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND AREPROJECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA SHOWSELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS. VERTICALWIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 1800 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS AND ISFORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. GIVEN THESEFACTORS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH KILO PEAKING ASA STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THEINTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE KILO MAY GO THROUGHEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEXSHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE 30 KT RI THRESHOLD IS 61PERCENT. THUS...REACHING CATEGORY 5 IS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH NOT COMMON IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 175.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 18.5N 176.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 19.5N 177.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 20.6N 178.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 21.9N 179.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 23.8N 179.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 24.5N 178.5E 120 KT 140 MPH120H 03/1800Z 24.5N 176.5E 120 KT 140 MPH $$FORECASTER KODAMA
WTPA41 PHFO 300259TCDCP1HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015 THE EYE OF KILO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 6HOURS. A BANDING FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERNSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELLDEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC. THEUW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS 122 KT. BASED ON THESEDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 115 KT FOR THISPACKAGE...MAKING KILO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE.THE LATEST IMAGES SHOW THAT KILO HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARDMOTION AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN SET TO 290/8KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO GRADUALLY MAKING A TURNTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT HEADS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THAT ARIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL TURN IT TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGEDTOWARD THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THEPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH.SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND AREPROJECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRADATA SHOW ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS.VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSISAND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR ADDITIONALSTRENGTHENING...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR KILO TO PEAK AT 130 KTOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE IVCN. THE IVCNGUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY HWRF WHICH CALLS FOR MUCHMORE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ALONG A TRACKTHAT IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LEVELS IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE KILO MAY GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 18.4N 176.2W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 18.8N 177.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 19.9N 178.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 21.1N 179.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 24.2N 179.3E 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 177.0E 115 KT 135 MPH120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 174.5E 115 KT 135 MPH $$FORECASTER KODAMA
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type------------------------------------------------------------------------21 GMT 08/20/15 11.0N 150.2W 35 1005 Tropical Depression03 GMT 08/21/15 11.0N 151.5W 35 1005 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/21/15 12.3N 151.3W 35 1006 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/21/15 12.7N 151.7W 40 1004 Tropical Storm21 GMT 08/21/15 13.0N 153.3W 40 1004 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/22/15 13.4N 154.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/22/15 13.3N 156.5W 35 1005 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/22/15 13.8N 158.2W 30 1006 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/22/15 14.2N 159.4W 30 1005 Tropical Depression03 GMT 08/23/15 15.2N 160.7W 35 1005 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/23/15 15.2N 162.3W 35 1006 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/23/15 15.2N 163.8W 35 1006 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/23/15 14.5N 164.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression03 GMT 08/24/15 14.5N 166.1W 35 1006 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/24/15 14.8N 166.7W 35 1006 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/24/15 15.6N 167.6W 35 1006 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/24/15 16.7N 167.8W 35 1006 Tropical Depression03 GMT 08/25/15 17.4N 167.1W 30 1006 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/25/15 18.4N 167.3W 30 1006 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/25/15 18.5N 167.3W 30 1006 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/25/15 18.5N 167.2W 30 1006 Tropical Depression03 GMT 08/26/15 18.6N 167.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression09 GMT 08/26/15 18.4N 167.9W 35 1005 Tropical Depression15 GMT 08/26/15 18.9N 167.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/26/15 18.3N 167.6W 40 1004 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/27/15 17.9N 168.1W 50 1001 Tropical Storm09 GMT 08/27/15 17.9N 168.1W 50 1001 Tropical Storm15 GMT 08/27/15 17.8N 168.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm21 GMT 08/27/15 17.7N 168.5W 70 990 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/28/15 17.4N 169.1W 70 990 Tropical Storm09 GMT 08/28/15 17.1N 169.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm15 GMT 08/28/15 17.2N 170.6W 70 990 Tropical Storm21 GMT 08/28/15 17.5N 171.7W 70 990 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/29/15 17.7N 172.5W 70 990 Tropical Storm09 GMT 08/29/15 17.8N 173.3W 75 985 Category 1 Hurricane15 GMT 08/29/15 18.0N 174.3W 90 976 Category 1 Hurricane21 GMT 08/29/15 18.0N 175.5W 125 952 Category 3 Hurricane03 GMT 08/30/15 18.4N 176.2W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane09 GMT 08/30/15 18.6N 176.8W 140 940 Category 4 Hurricane