Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 21, 2018, 10:31:26 am
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Mucho ojito con este potente huracán... Hay ciertas posibilidades de que afecte a las islas Hawái...
HRD/AOML/NOAA
@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 is back in Hurricane Lane in the Central Pacific and just completed their third pass through the storm. A look at a vertical slice through the storm along the northeast to southwest pass from our Doppler radar, showing the clear eye and a deep, sloped eyewall.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlGzbbRU4AAKbI-.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlGz34VUwAAMB69.jpg)
Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 25...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an impressive,
distinct eye on Hurricane Lane, though the convection surrounding
the core looks more ragged on the last few infrared images. A 2258Z
AMSR2 pass indicated that Lane had a concentric eyewall structure.
Satellite intensity estimates ranged from 5.5 from SAB and JTWC to
6.0 from PHFO. CIMSS ADT had 5.5 at 0000Z but has since risen to
6.0. Based on these estimates and the earlier reconnaisance data,
we have maintained a 115 kt intensity for this advisory. Another
aircraft reconnaisance mission will investigate Lane this evening.
The initial motion estimate continues to be 280/10. A subtropical
ridge to the north of Lane continues to steer the system westward.
However, changes in the steering pattern are expected relatively
soon, as the ridge weakens ane leaves a weakness to the north of
Lane. This will allow the tropical cyclone to begin gaining
latitude a little more quickly by 48 hours.
The models are struggling with a couple of factors that make the
track forecast beyond 48 hours very challenging. One is the
evolution of a new ridge which develops to the east and southeast of
Lane, and the other is the effect of gradually increasing shear. The
ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and starts shearing the system
sooner, so the track is on the left side of the guidance envelope.
The GFS and NAVGEM are quite a bit weaker with the ridge, and keep
Lane away from the westerly shear longer. There do not appear to be
any clear signals at this point to suggest which track to favor,
and so we continue to follow the consensus guidance which is down
the middle of an uncomfortably large guidance envelope. A turn more
toward the west is expected toward the end of the period as Lane is
expected to be decoupled and move as a shallower system in the
trades. The rather large uncertainty in the track forecast
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days. It is important to not focus your
attention on the exact forecast track, and be prepared for changes
to the forecast.
Weak to moderate southwesterly shear and sea surface temperatures
near 28C are sufficient to allow Lane to maintain intensity for the
next 24 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
due to difficult to forecast eyewall replacement cycles. As
mentioned before, increasing shear will lead to a gradual weakening
trend at first, with more rapid weakening expected beyond 72 hours
as Lane approaches stronger winds aloft from a subtropical jet
stream.
The larger than normal uncertainty in the future track of Lane
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next few days as Lane approaches the islands. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track, and be prepared
for changes to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 13.8N 150.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 159.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.8N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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Imagen IR más actual... tremenda:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlHEbroX0AA7HCG.jpg)
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Qué barbaridad lo de este huracán... Muy atentos con las islas Hawái...
https://www.facebook.com/cazatormentas.net/videos/300730050506574/
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A pesar de que la incertidumbre sobre el rumbo del #HuracánLANE sigue siendo muy alta, mayor de lo que cabría esperar a tan solo 3 días vista, la última salida del GFS le lleva a impactar en la Isla Grande de #Hawái.
Si estás allí de vacaciones, o piensas ir en breve, ten esto en cuenta!! Te puedes encontrar con un monstruo!!
https://www.facebook.com/cazatormentas.net/videos/253084991983726/
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NWS Eastern Region
@NWSEastern
Category 4 Hurricane Lane (max winds 150 mph - 650 mi southeast of Honolulu HI) continues to move west this morning, but is expected to turn northwest on Wednesday. While some weakening is expected, Lane will be impacting much of the Hawaiian Islands late in the week.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIlVdsW4AECzzc.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIlV9iXgAYWGyY.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIlWiRW0AAGl4N.jpg)
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NASAHurricane
@NASAHurricane
Here is a Look at Category 4 #HurricaneLane at night as it continues moving toward Hawaii in the Central Pacific Ocean. Images from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite on Aug. 21, 2018 Credit: UWM/CIMSS/William Straka III
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIhgBIXgAAGNnu.jpg)
NASAHurricane
@NASAHurricane
A Look at Category 4 Hurricane Lane at night as it continues moving toward Hawaii in the Central Pacific Ocean. Images from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite on Aug. 21, 2018, including a close up of the eye. Credit: UWM/CIMSS/William Straka III
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIhnQLW0AE5uMD.jpg)
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Respecto a LANE, si finalmente hace impacto en Hawái en los términos indicados por los modelos a estas horas, sería un acontecimiento casi histórico...
"Sólo 2 huracanes han tocado tierra en alguna de las islas hawaianas en la historia reciente: DOT en 1959 e INIKI en 1992..."
Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy
Only two hurricanes have made landfall on any of the Hawaiian islands in recorded history: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992... and coincidentally, both hit Kauai! #Lane is threatening to become the third by the weekend. #Hawaii
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIBvjLXgAA8vTQ.jpg)
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Apostaría que llegara a ser categoria 5,veremos que parámetros arroja el avión cazahuracanes.
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Imágenes espectaculares de esta mañana, a las 11:37 UTC. A esa hora es de noche, por lo que la imagen visible deber de haber sido adquirida por el sensor VIIRS del Suomi NPP de la NOAA/NASA utilizando la luz de la luna... Todo un espectáculo!! :o :o :o
Scott Bachmeier
@CIMSS_Satellite
Suomi NPP #VIIRS Day/Night Band and Infrared Window images of Category 4 Hurricane #Lane southeast of Hawai'i at 1137 UTC https://go.wisc.edu/pnv2i0
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIhmN6X0AIEBpA.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlIhnmcXgAAbbVq.jpg)
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Por otro lado, actualmente hay un avión cazahuracanes comenzando a penetrar al huracán, para ver su estado actual. Especialmente en lo referido a intensidad (presión mínima estimada en su centro, y distribución de sus vientos en la vertical y en la horizontal). Pronto empezaremos a tener datos:
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is entering Hurricane #Lane to assess the current intensity of the storm.
Real-time data from the aircraft is available here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlI5qB4X4AAL8C2.jpg)
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As of 17:22 UTC Aug 21, 2018:
Aircraft Position: 14.22°N 152.72°W
Bearing: 153° at 267 kt
Altitude: 2861 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 135 kt at 33°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 974.6 mb
Datos que arroja de momento,parece que los campos de fuerte grandiente de presión son muy pequeños y muy cercanos al ojo.
ACTUALIZACIÓN presion del ojo minima de 939,2 HPA y vientos sostenidos en 10s de 140 KT seguramente extrapolados a 135 KT,un muy intenso categoria 4
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ACTUALIZACIÓN presion del ojo minima de 939,2 HPA y vientos sostenidos en 10s de 140 KT seguramente extrapolados a 135 KT,un muy intenso categoria 4
Si eso es así, LANE está a pelo de un calvo de la categoría 5... :o :o :o
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El modelo HWRF se suma al GFS y al europeo en llevar a LANE hasta Isla Grande en Hawái, o muy cerca de ella...
https://www.facebook.com/pedro.c.fernandez/videos/10217075812788173/
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Pues así es... Vientos de 155 mph, justo en el límite superior de la categoría 4...
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
The ongoing recon mission into Hurricane #Lane found that the storm is a bit stronger than earlier this morning, with a central pressure of 940-941 hPa and maximum winds of ~155 mph.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlJNeY-W0AI98Qp.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlJNr3BWsAAIJOp.jpg)
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El Huracán Lane amenaza a Hawai: una rareza meteorológica
(http://www.cazatormentas.com/wp-content/uploads/huracan-lane-categoria-5.jpg)
El Huracán Lane amenaza a Hawai como un poderoso Categoría 5 a dónde podría llegar en las próximas 24 horas. Un sistema tropical colosal que se trata de una rareza meteorológica pues forma parte de una reducidísima lista de huracanes de dicha intensidad que toca tierra aquellas islas del Pacífico en las últimas décadas.
Lane parece que afectará fundamentalmente al estado de Aloha tras la última estimación realizada por el NOAA quién ha lo situó hace pocas horas a unos 772 Kilómetros al Sudeste de Honolulu con vientos máximos sostenidos de 257 Km/h.
http://www.cazatormentas.com/lane-huracan-rareza-meteorologica-hawai/
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Hoy los modelos quizás son más optimistas en el sentido de alejar a LANE de realizar un impacto directo en alguna de las islas hawaianas... Esperemos que así sea... No obstante, los pronósticos aún lo llevan a pasar DEMASIADO cerca...
Hurricane Tracker App
@hurrtrackerapp
The HWRF model takes the core of Hurricane #Lane dangerously close to the Big Island of Hawaii on Thursday. Now while this is possible, this is on the eastern periphery of other guidance.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlOAuDmWsAEjfgr.jpg)
Amaneciendo sobre el coloso...
Chris Slocum
@CSlocumWX
Here is a slightly more zoomed in version of visible imagery of #Lane, but 10 minutes later than the last screenshot. In this image, you can see a clearer view of the eye and gravity waves emanating from the inner-core convection.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlN_jP_VAAUjZBl.jpg)
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Pronósticos oficiales, en los que se recoge el hecho de que LANE evite el impacto directo en Isla Grande...
NWS OPC
@NWSOPC
16Z GOES-West enhanced infrared satellite imagery of #Hurricane #Lane along with the latest CPHC graphical advisory information.
For additional information on Hurricane Lane please visit, http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlN5rfuXoAEp-vM.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlN5s1eX0AUvg9p.jpg)
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A pesar de que no se produzca impacto directo, NO SE DEBE SUBESTIMAR EL POTENCIAL DE INUNDACIONES CATASTRÓFICAS. Lo recoge perfectamente este tuit:
Taylor Trogdon
@TTrogdon
The flooding rain/mudslide risk, even without a direct landfall from #Lane, cannot be understated. Orographic lift will enhance rainfall rates and the resultant flooding could be devastating. An extreme risk for flooding rain exists across the island chain (from @NWSHonolulu)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlN2pTsW4AAMGwR.jpg)
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Los pronósticos indican que LANE va a comenzar a internarse en una zona con alta cizalladura vertical del viento, lo que empezará a debilitarlo...
Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
Major Hurricane Lane is about to move into an area of high vertical wind shear. This shear should weaken the storm moving forward. SHIPS is weakening the sustained winds down to 105kt within 24 hours, downgrading this storm to a Category 3. Still a powerful storm but has peaked.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlOLPECWwAIjWgE.jpg)
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Ricky Arnold
@astro_ricky
#HurricaneLane in the early morning hours near #Hawaii. The crew of the @Space_Station sends much aloha to everyone there.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlOCw3cX4AA6hmA.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlOC3mOWsAEi1ld.jpg)
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El Huracán Lane amenaza a Hawai: una rareza meteorológica (http://www.cazatormentas.com/lane-huracan-rareza-meteorologica-hawai/)
(http://www.cazatormentas.com/wp-content/uploads/huracan-lane-categoria-5.jpg)
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Buenas noticias para Hawai, ya que las últimas salidas de los modelos alejan algo a LANE de las islas, aunque seguirán sintiendo con fuerza sus efectos en forma de lluvia y tremendo oleaje.
Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
@RyanMaue
EPS 00z update for #HurricaneLane is an obvious shift west ... removing most previous solutions (sphagetti strands) at Maui longitude.
Lane now at 157°W
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlR3xzgU8AEHuEP.jpg)
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https://www.instagram.com/p/BmyvhUklhqO/?taken-by=iss
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Boya meteorológica que ha recibido el envite directo de LANE... muy buenos datos proporcionados desde el centro del ciclón.
Philippe Papin
@pppapin
I think it's safe to say the #buoy is now directly in the center the eye of #HurricaneLane. Sustained winds at 10 meters are now under 10 knots. Pressure down to ~956-hPa (28.25 in Hg). So rare to have a buoy to get a direct hit like this.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTzjl3UYAAJixV.jpg)
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Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
Current satellite view of Hurricane #Lane looming in the vicinity of #Hawaii
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTprBiU0AA1O88.jpg)
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Y a pesar de que la cizalladura ya está afectando al huracán, este mantiene una estructura muy decente y sólida...
Matt Lammers
@mlammers86
En respuesta a @MichaelRLowry
Radar data from this GPM overflight corroborates the microwave, and suggests echo tops above 15km in large parts of the eyewall. https://go.nasa.gov/2BFsuuX
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlToDHOWwAA0co1.jpg)
Y en cuanto a los pronósticos de trayectoria, mucho por decidirse aún... ::)
Eric Holthaus
@EricHolthaus
For some clarification, we can look at the high-resolution hurricane-specific models. These are also pretty accurate, historically.
The HMON (L) and HWRF (R) both show #HurricaneLane making a very close brush with Maui and Oahu. This is not a good sign.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTn7QrU0AANetD.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTn9u_UUAACj_T.jpg)
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okfarmsThis morning at Kaimukanaka, August 23, 2018 #okfarms #keepingupwithokfarms #hurricanelane #massive #wailuku #waiau #watersofdestruction #river #waterfall #powerful #mothernature #instagram #facebook #hilo #hawaii #bigisland #aloha #mahalo *You are allowed to use this video as an update on how much rain we got since yesterday/lastnight* @khonnews @foxnews @kitv4 @nikkischen
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bm1DtkYnVWJ/?tagged=hawaii
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Las lluvias torrenciales, y sus consecuencias, el mayor de los peligros de LANE por ahora...
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bm2pZLVlpTL/?taken-by=reedtimmer
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LANE pasó ayer tarde por una boya meteorológica, arrojando impresionantes datos...
Scott Bachmeier
@CIMSS_Satellite
#GOES15 Visible & Infrared images showing Buoy 51002 still reporting within the western eyewall of #HurricaneLane: https://go.wisc.edu/0sum22 NOAA NDBC wind/pressure plot: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=51002&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-10&time_label=HAST …
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTvZxjW4AEZOxL.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlTzjl3UYAAJixV.jpg)
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Parece que se pare el tiempo cuando llega el ojo :o
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Así se ve el "asedio" del #HuracánLane #HurricaneLane a través de imágenes de radar. Continúan las lluvias torrenciales y sus catastróficas consecuencias en #Hawai.
https://www.facebook.com/cazatormentas.net/videos/223240911875003/
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Ejemplo claro del efecto amplificador de la orografía de Isla Grande en Hawái.... Los datos están en pulgadas :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlYHPO_XsAAyAr-.jpg)
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En este enlace un video del avion de la NOAA en el ojo de Lane
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20180824/451426267331/huracan-lane-avion-hawai-video-seo-ext.html
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NWSHonolulu
@NWSHonolulu
Preliminary rainfall measurements from the Big Island of Hawaii over the last four days, associated with former Hurricane #Lane, have produced the third highest storm total rainfall from a tropical cyclone in the US since 1950. Graphic below shows totals for Big Island and Maui.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DliuJTpVAAEteUJ.jpg)