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Autor Tema: Gran Huracán / major hurricane GUILLERMO 10E - Pacífico Este (EPAC)  (Leído 407 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Pues eso, que tenemos otro huracán en el EPAC, y nosotros sin hilo abierto para él :P

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140832
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

GUILLERMO IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0151 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A
0218 UTC AMSU PASS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CDO BETWEEN TWO CURVED BANDS OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER SSTS ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS BELOW ICON AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AS THE HWRF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFDL SEEM TOO SLOW TO
WEAKEN GUILLERMO GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM A 0259 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/13. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAYS
4 AND 5. THEREFORE...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM THE
THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 17.6N 125.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.9N 127.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 130.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 135.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N 151.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
« Última modificación: Agosto 15, 2009, 10:32:47 am por Gale »

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Re: Huracán / hurricane GUILLERMO 10E - Pacífico Este (EPAC)
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 14, 2009, 22:53:52 pm »
pues si me habia extrañado bastante que no tenia seguimiento
porque de pronto fue elevado a Huracan y
GUILLERMO ya es categoria 2

 :P

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Huracán / hurricane GUILLERMO 10E - Pacífico Este (EPAC)
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 14, 2009, 22:58:24 pm »
Pues sí.......... No esperaban que llegase a mucho, y sorprende con esa categoría 2 :D1 Adjunto boletín de discusión del CNH:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS
DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER
OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT.  SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
LGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE AND
HURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán / major hurricane GUILLERMO 10E - Pacífico Este (EPAC)
« Respuesta #3 en: Agosto 15, 2009, 10:33:20 am »
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150520
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
A SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF
5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W   100 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




« Última modificación: Agosto 15, 2009, 10:35:36 am por Gale »

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán / major hurricane GUILLERMO 10E - Pacífico Este (EPAC)
« Respuesta #4 en: Agosto 16, 2009, 11:50:26 am »
Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 GMT 08/12/09  15.3N 116.4W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/12/09  15.8N 117.8W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/13/09  16.2N 119.2W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/13/09  16.9N 120.5W     50        999     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/13/09  17.1N 121.6W     65        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/13/09  17.2N 123.1W     70        992     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/14/09  17.2N 124.5W     70        992     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/14/09  17.6N 125.9W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/14/09  17.8N 127.3W     80        984     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/14/09  17.9N 128.9W    100        972     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/15/09  18.3N 130.3W    100        976     Category 2 Hurricane
05 GMT 08/15/09  18.4N 130.8W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/15/09  18.7N 131.9W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/15/09  18.9N 133.2W    125        954     Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/15/09  19.2N 134.5W    110        958     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/16/09  19.7N 135.9W    110        958     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/16/09  19.8N 137.4W    100        973     Category 2 Hurricane

GUILLERMO ya ha entrado en decadencia y parece que no afectará mucho a las Hawaii

 



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