Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Septiembre 03, 2012, 23:55:03 pm
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Se forma la DT 13 de la cuenca Atlántica, pequeña pero circulación cerrada es circulación:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/x-19.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/y-20.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/z-10.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.6N 42.2W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
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;)
(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/atlantic/ir/20120903.2045.goes13.ir.fd.x.jpg)
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A ver si nace el amigo Michael :D
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Ya la tenemos, Tormenta Tropical Michael.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 041436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...MICHAEL POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 43.5W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
INTENSIFIED AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL. AT 1100 AM
AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST. MICHAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Cambiado el título. Este ciclón es interesante ;) tiene origen en una baja no tropical que descendió desde Azores
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Se perderá en el mar, lo más seguro, pero algún modelo lo manda a la peninsula, pocas posibilidades pero ahí están... ::)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-PUZMtQ-g0H8/UEZuScjH95I/AAAAAAAAAb4/KQXUUew1b3c/s640/at201213_ensmodel.gif)
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Va a subir a Huracán.
Es bonito:
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201213_sat.jpg)
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Yo creo que en la próxima actualización lo pondrán como huracán... La imagen del satélite es muy clara 8)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9994/2012AL13_1KMSRVIS_201209051645_owk5.GIF)
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Bueno, bueno... La cosa se pone muy muy interesante! :O* :O* :O* :O* :O*
...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... :D1
El CNH ha emitido un aviso especial sobre MICHAEL porque se está fortaleciendo con rapidez evil Justamente lo que estábamos viendo a través de las imágenes del satélite 8)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 051742
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
130 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A EYE FEATURE INDICATED IN
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT AND MICHAEL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS. THE INCREASED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE BASIS
FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.
MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1730Z 28.5N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 29.0N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 31.0N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.1N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.3N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.7N 46.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Pero como siempre... son extremadamente conservadores y todavía no lo colocan como huracán, a pesar de lo que se ve en las imágenes del satélite y microondas ::)
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Hora local de Caracas 3pm
Michael está intentando formar un ojo, claramente visible en la infrarroja avanzada. Es probable que hoy mismo tengamos el séptimo huracán de la temporada:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-30.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/d-24.gif)
SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...28.5N 42.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Hora local de Caracas10:30pm
Michael es el 7º huracán del Atlántico esta temporada:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/rbtop-animated-4.gif)
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...29.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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YA ES CATEGORÍA 2 :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
...MICHAEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...29.4N 42.0W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
Y además con muchas posibilidades de convertirse en un MAJOR en las próximas horas!
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1312T_sm2+gif/045926P_sm.gif)
Os imaginais si llegamos a tener dos MAJOR simultáneamente en el Atlántico? :o :o :o
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Preciosa imagen de Leslie y Michael juntos... y vaya ojo más definido tiene Michael!! perfectamente visible incluso desde esta distancia.
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg)
Este llega a Categoría 3 antes de que a algún moderador le de tiempo a cambiar el título de Tormenta Tropical :D1
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201213_sat.jpg)
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Impresionante la evolución de MICHAEL............. Se ha pasado los pronósticos del GFS de hace unos días por todo el forro, convirtiéndose en un monstruo! :o :o :o :o :o :o
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060500
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0500Z 29.4N 42.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Se convertirá en un "major" :o :o :o :o :o :o :o Y ahora el GFS lo lleva a rozar el oeste de Azores :O* :O* :O* :O*
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Aquí podemos verle en infrarrojo...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3093/michael_edu7.jpg)
Y, lo más curioso... está ejecutando este proceso en aguas que precisamente no destacan por tener un elevado OHC según los productos disponibles ;D
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Parece que este Michael va a dar mucho juego.
(http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/610948huracanmichaelclouds3231911.png)
(http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/957436huracanMichaeldchayLeslieizqda592012.jpg)
:O*
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Sobre todo si hacemos caso al GFS, aunque sea un caos... :D1
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Voilà! ::) MICHAEL alcanza la categoría 3 y se convierte en el primer major de la temporada...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060500
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0500Z 29.4N 42.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Increíblemente bello !!!!!!!!!! :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/916/rbtop0_lalo060912_pez9.jpg)
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:<<O :<<O :<<O :<<O :<<O
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Hora local de Caracas 11:45am
Imponente
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/z-11.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/x-20.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/y-21.gif)
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.1N 41.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 061439
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY. A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS
FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT. THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
LESLIE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK
WITH TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW.
SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 30.1N 41.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.6N 41.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 31.2N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.9N 42.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 32.4N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.4N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 38.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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(http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/684545main_20120906-MICHAEL-TRMM.jpg)
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El TRMM haciendo su trabajo! Impresionantes esas torres convectivas de la pared del ojo alcanzando alturas de casi 20 km :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
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Hora local de Caracas 9:15pm
Bajado a CAT2 por 1mph apenas, sin embargo en la infrarroja mejorada se aprecia un ojo estabilizado, inclusive perdiendo diámetro, sintomas de reintensificación. Veremos:
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 41.0W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/f-6.gif)
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El huracán en una preciosa imagen de alta resolución infrarroja del satélite NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP, tomada ayer 6 de septiembre de 2012 a las 04:22 z
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-wByqcsp2fqQ/UEmzurRdkxI/AAAAAAAACNs/0DDPb7Xbx1Q/s950/huracan-mayor-michael.jpg)
En extra-grande: http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1180v1_20120906-Michael-0422z-VIIRS.png (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1180v1_20120906-Michael-0422z-VIIRS.png)
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Siempre que me despego del foro unos dias, ocurre algo interesante y me lo pierdo >:( >:( >:( ;D Impresionante Michael, que preciosidad de sistema :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
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Muy buena la apreciación de Eric en cuando a la reducción de diámetro del ojo en la secuencia que adjuntaba :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
Actualmente, la presencia del ciclón ha empeorado algo, aunque los topes siguen siendo muy fríos. Sin embargo, el ojo no es tan simétrico...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8818/rbtop0_lalo_yga4.jpg)
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Espectacular la visión del ojo de Michael desde el satélite Aqua de la NASA. Imagen de ayer 6 de septiembre a las 16:20 UTC:
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-r4hEv9gsEYE/UEoo4X82ZGI/AAAAAAAACOE/fCE10u5wSiE/s640/ojo-michael-1.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-eGPjNDBON3Y/UEoocabL5uI/AAAAAAAACN8/LYxJyceWL9M/s640/ojo-michael-2.jpg)
Retocando los niveles para apreciar mejor la enorme convectividad de su zona más activa:
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-pt4z9xSyj6g/UEopNwHOG6I/AAAAAAAACOM/Ioy1-iX-_MQ/s640/ojo-michael-2-contraste.jpg)
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Jota, te has superado a ti mismo. Vaya foto la última.
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Hora local de Caracas 9pm
Jota vaya pubicación :D1
Que verticalidad tan brutal, lo mejor de la temporada definiticamente
Ya actualmente ha perdido organización y ya a esta hora debe ser un CAT1 aunque para las 5pm ADT el boletín del CNH indicaba que aún permanecia en la CAT2:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/3-67.gif)
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 41.3W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
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MICHAEL se está comportando como todo un campeón, y mantiene la categoría 2 de huracán :D1 :D1 :D1 Aunque ha habido momentos en que su apariencia se ha degradado bastante, logra superar las dificultades y actualmente presenta ojo y una simetría muy buena. Vamos, que está luchando como un campeón! ;D
000
WTNT43 KNHC 080832
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS
BEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS
LAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS
THE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2
TO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY DAY 4.
THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM
MOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 32.2N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 32.6N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 33.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 33.5N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 33.9N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 36.7N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 45.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Una pregunta: viendo las actuales trayectorias previstas para Michael y Leslie... ambos podrían coincidir al sur de Terranova! Es eso posible???? Que ocurriría de producirse?
Michael
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1312W5_NL_sm2+gif/204246W5_NL_sm.gif)
Leslie
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1212W5_NL_sm2+gif/233543W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Noticia en portada sobre MICHAEL: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/meteo-didica-topmenu-39/53-aprende-sobre-ciclones-tropicales/2884-torres-calidas-provocan-un-proceso-de-intensificacion-rapida-en-michael.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/meteo-didica-topmenu-39/53-aprende-sobre-ciclones-tropicales/2884-torres-calidas-provocan-un-proceso-de-intensificacion-rapida-en-michael.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 2:10pm
CAT1
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/4-26.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/3-69.gif)
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 43.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
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Una pregunta: viendo las actuales trayectorias previstas para Michael y Leslie... ambos podrían coincidir al sur de Terranova! Es eso posible???? Que ocurriría de producirse?
De acercarse el uno al otro, lo que ocurre es que el más poderoso absorbe al más débil... También a veces ocurre que la interferencia es mutua, y el uno al otro se debilitan. Lo más probable en este caso es que MICHAEL sucumba a la cizalladura que provocará LESLIE sobre él ;)
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Una pregunta: viendo las actuales trayectorias previstas para Michael y Leslie... ambos podrían coincidir al sur de Terranova! Es eso posible???? Que ocurriría de producirse?
De acercarse el uno al otro, lo que ocurre es que el más poderoso absorbe al más débil... También a veces ocurre que la interferencia es mutua, y el uno al otro se debilitan. Lo más probable en este caso es que MICHAEL sucumba a la cizalladura que provocará LESLIE sobre él ;)
Mil gracias!!
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Muy buen aspecto el que presenta hoy MICHAEL, después de que ayer se debilitara bastante al verse afectado por la cizalladura del flujo de salida de LESLIE... Ha regenerado convección que ha ayudado a la reconstrucción de la pared del ojo. Sin embargo, las previsiones del CNH indican que pronto el ambiente se le va a poner hostil...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4730/michael10sep_ahp9.jpg)
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MICHAEL se ha hecho migas esta noche... Tan sólo le queda un leve borbotón convectivo, débil a estas horas, y la circulación remanente en niveles bajos...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3685/2012AL13_4KMIRIMG_201209110645_yuq6.GIF)
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Adiós MICHAEL...
(http://i50.tinypic.com/345ebeb.jpg)
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De MICHAEL solo queda un remolino de nubes bajas.............. Y el CNH ya no va a emitir avisos sobre él.
Cabe, eso sí, recordar, que nació a partir de una baja no-tropical al sur de Azores ;) ;) ;) Adjunto el track del NRL.