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Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 12, 2008, 15:36:33 pm

Título: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 12, 2008, 15:36:33 pm: Pues eso...Otro sistema en el Mar Caribe, y lo peor es que parece que se irá directito hacia Haití y Republica Dominicána. En estos momentos sostiene vientos de 20 KTS. El NHC mantiene el rango de formación en NARANJA. Parece ser que este sistema es el que esta haciendo que 97L se diriga hacia el norte....
Título: Re: Sistema Tropical 98L - Mar Caribe
Publicado por: jota en Octubre 12, 2008, 20:35:15 pm: Los pronósticos le dan bastantes posibilidades de que evolucione a depresión tropical hacia el miércoles, cuando debe estar cerca de Puerto Rico. Veremos su evolución. De momento esta es su historia:

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 10/11/08 12.5N 64.9W 20 1006 Invest
00 GMT 10/12/08 13.3N 65.0W 20 1007 Invest
06 GMT 10/12/08 14.0N 64.0W 20 1007 Invest
12 GMT 10/12/08 14.0N 67.0W 20 1007 Invest
18 GMT 10/12/08 15.1N 67.7W 25 1006 Invest
Título: Re: Sistema Tropical 98L INVEST, futuro OMAR? (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 13, 2008, 12:48:38 pm: Alerta roja de formación de ciclón tropical sobre este sistema, según el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN SOME AREAS THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE

Según reza el boletín, el sistema no está consiguiendo progresar debido a los vientos en altura, que son desfavorables, pero que está previsto mejoren y se tornen favorables para las 12 o 24 próximas horas, por lo que la formación de una depresión tropical puede ser inminente...
Título: Re: Sistema Tropical 98L INVEST, futuro OMAR? (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 13, 2008, 13:04:53 pm: Pues parece que este sistema sera una amenaza para el caribe occidental. Habra que estar atentos en JAMAICA...
Título: Re: Depresión Tropical 15L, futuro OMAR? (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 13, 2008, 15:51:51 pm: El NRL ya la considera depresión tropical. Además, el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida, en su último boletín sobre este sistema, comenta que una depresión tropical podría estar formándose ya. Por esto mismo, subiremos nosotros también su estatus.
Título: Re: Depresión Tropical 15L, futuro OMAR? (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 13, 2008, 16:55:59 pm: Ya es oficial.... Primer boletín de discusión del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 131441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE
DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND
VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR
A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.8N 69.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Las conclusiones que pueden extraerse después de leerlo, es que OMAR será una realidad en menos de dos días, y que tiene serias posibilidades de aumentar de fuerza hasta convertirse en huracán, así que veremos a ver qué ocurre finalmente...
Título: Re: Depresión Tropical 15L, futuro OMAR? (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 13, 2008, 21:03:39 pm: Muy rara trayectoria... Tal vez esa trayectoria sera provocada por 99L!
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical OMAR 15L (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 14, 2008, 19:02:31 pm: OMAR ya es una realidad... El Centro Nacional de Huracanes la acaba de ascender de estatus...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 141505
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.0N 69.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Parece ser que se está intensificando con rapidez............ Y al menos pronostican su llegada a la categoría 1 de huracán... No parece que vaya a entrar en el Caribe.
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical OMAR 15L (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Huracan_Castillo en Octubre 14, 2008, 19:43:01 pm: Hay otro tormenta zurda?? Creo que es algo atipico pero ya habia sucedido antes.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199912.asp
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical OMAR 15L (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 14, 2008, 21:43:22 pm: Segun el NRL MONTEREY, OMAR ya tiene 60 kts!
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical OMAR 15L (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Lisandro89 en Octubre 15, 2008, 05:33:39 am: Nuevo huracan Omar - 65kt - 979mb

Hay modelos que llevan a omar a intensificarse y en 24hs ser un huracan categoria 4... mientras tanto los del NHC son mas conservadores y elevan el pico a 90kt... pero para mi lo supera! :)

Para mi podria ser un wilma... lastima q omar tiene 20 nudos y wilma tenia 3 nudos... ahi esta la diferencia clave..

Es impresionante! :cold: :cold: :cold:

Imagenes:

(http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/1665/omar1xx9.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

(http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/5989/omar2tl6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

(http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/9940/omar3ug8.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

Saludos! ;)
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 15, 2008, 06:43:58 am: Juer, Lisandro !! El pepinazo que ha pegado ha sido de impresión !!

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150251
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS
BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES
ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.
IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A
60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND
GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 15, 2008, 12:37:24 pm: El huracan se dirige al NE rumbo a las antillas. Una trayectoria que jamas he visto de un Huracan en el Caribe!
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 15, 2008, 15:46:36 pm: Todavía no ha sufrido muchos cambios en su intensidad, al contrario de lo que se esperaba ayer...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150842
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING OF OMAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN
ELLIPTICAL AND PARTIALLY OPEN EYE WAS OBSERVED BUT THE INNER CORE
IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN AND
MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 65
KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT OMAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...AS WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS OMAR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 050/6. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE ALONG WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
CREATING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS A LITTLE AROUND DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT AHEAD OF OMAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION COULD REQUIRE
CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT
ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 67.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.8N 66.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.8N 62.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 23.8N 60.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 29.0N 57.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 35.0N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 43.0N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Ojo a los picos de intensidad, y al proceso de extratropicalización al final del periodo............

(http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/8527/omarja7.jpg)
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 15, 2008, 18:44:38 pm: Ojito con OMAR, que podría traernos sorpresas a Europa. Sólo lo comento esto como una remota posibilidad, viendo la actual salida del GFS (12 UTC). OMAR bordearía todo el anticiclón de las Azores, precisamente pasando cerca de esta archipiélago, para poner rumbo a Europa sin terminar de ser absorbido por ningún frente o vaguada, al contrario de lo que rezan las predicciones de los meteorólogos del CNH de Florida, que le pronostican una transición extratropical.

¿Un caso decidido a parecerse, aunque sea de lejos, al ya lejano GORDON?
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 15, 2008, 20:51:49 pm: Cita de: Gale en Octubre 15, 2008, 18:44:38 pm
Ojito con OMAR, que podría traernos sorpresas a Europa. Sólo lo comento esto como una remota posibilidad, viendo la actual salida del GFS (12 UTC). OMAR bordearía todo el anticiclón de las Azores, precisamente pasando cerca de esta archipiélago, para poner rumbo a Europa sin terminar de ser absorbido por ningún frente o vaguada, al contrario de lo que rezan las predicciones de los meteorólogos del CNH de Florida, que le pronostican una transición extratropical.

¿Un caso decidido a parecerse, aunque sea de lejos, al ya lejano GORDON?

Adjunto el mapa de trayectoria previsto por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes. Por cierto, OMAR sigue intensificándose, y seguramente en la siguiente actualización de boletines OMAR ya sea categoría 2....
Título: Re: Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 1 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Lisandro89 en Octubre 16, 2008, 05:11:35 am: Huracan Omar - Categoria 3 // 100kt - 967mb

Impresionante ;D

Algunas imagenes :cold: 8)

(http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/2483/omarxg9.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

(http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/2796/omar1wx1.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

(http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/6148/omarrrrrrrrrjl6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)

(http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/728/animomarpt6.gif) (http://imageshack.us)

Saludos! :)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 16, 2008, 06:36:02 am: Vaya pedo que ha pegado !!!

000
WTNT45 KNHC 160313
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT...AND
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. ON THIS
BASIS...OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING
INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL.

OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 050/17. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD. OMAR IS
EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP
OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH
ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH SOME
SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24
HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.4N 64.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.4N 63.1W 105 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 22.2N 61.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 59.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 34.0N 53.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 41.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 16, 2008, 06:39:14 am: Fuente: wunderground.
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/at200815_radar.gif)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: alb_Ronda en Octubre 16, 2008, 12:28:26 pm: Ya hay con que entretenerse :P Con 1 poco de suerte pillamos algo...

(http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/6745/dibujojj4.png)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 16, 2008, 15:53:49 pm: Interesante escenario el que plantea el modelo GFS para los próximos días, en cuanto a la aproximación de OMAR, o lo que quede de él, hacia Europa:

(http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/302/gfsomarcd0.jpg)

Mi opinión particular apunta a la no realización de una transición extratropical. Al menos yo no veo interacción ninguna ni con ninguna vaguada ni con ningún frente por la aparición de la zona de altas presiones que en las primeras salidas del cuadro rodeo con una elipse. Estas zonas de altas presiones parecen actuar de modo que da independencia a OMAR o lo que quede de él, pues hay que resaltar la influencia que sobre él está ejerciendo unos altos valores de cizalladura. Probablemente la cizalladura mine al ciclón de forma progresiva, pero sin que se produzca transición extratropical, por lo que OMAR podría mantenerse como una entidad independiente aunque muy debilitado. Quizá en su camino hacia Europa, incluso hacia la Península Ibérica, como dibuja el modelo, vaya recibiendo aire frío en altura que reactivara la actividad nubosa de la perturbación y entonces sí que realizara una transición extratropical.... con matices. En tales circunstancias, creo que tanto el gradiente vertical como el horizontal de temperatura en el ciclón, tendrían repartida la importancia casi a partes iguales, con lo que podríamos estar hablando de una borrasca híbrida, que no un ciclón subtropical, con alta capacidad para generar nubosidad y lluvias abundantes.

Me parece una situación muy interesante a seguir.
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 16, 2008, 21:05:37 pm: La cizalladura está destruyendo a OMAR con una velocidad impresionante... De esto mismo se hacen eco los meteorólogos del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida en su último boletín de discusión. Destaca el hecho de que casi ha alcanzado la categoría 4 :o :o

000
WTNT45 KNHC 161513
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

IT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO ME AT HOW QUICKLY A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP
AND JUST AS QUICKLY FALL APART. OMAR REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 06Z AND NOW WE HAVE AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST A
FEW HOURS LATER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES WERE
SUGGESTING AROUND 90-100 KT AT 12Z. BUT GIVEN THE RAPID
DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED...WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 75 KT.

DESPITE VERY WARM WATERS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...HAS PRODUCED THE WEAKENING IN OMAR AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE TREND
OF OMAR'S INTENSITY WAS NOT CORRECTLY ANALYZED AT SYNOPTIC
TIME...THE STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...ARE PROVIDING
VALUES THAT ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
HWRF MODEL WHICH DID VERY WELL IN ANTICIPATING THIS MORNING'S RAPID
WEAKENING OF OMAR. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AROUND DAY
4...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THE GLOBAL MODELS' CONSENSUS.

THE NOW EASY-TO-SEE CENTER DID FORCE US TO MAKE A LAST SECOND
RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION AS WELL AS THE SHORT TERM TRACK
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION THAN AT FIRST
ESTIMATED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HR...BUT THEN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND
HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SLOWER PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.2N 61.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 28.0N 56.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 31.3N 54.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 38.0N 45.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 23.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Hace falta ver el momento a partir del cual se produce esta transición extratropical, o si ésta llega a producirse...

La imagen del satélite muestra un ciclón tropical completamente roto por la cizalladura. Puede que la fuerza de sus vientos aún sean de huracán, pero su aspecto es de una destrucción completa de su estructura, por lo que sólo nos queda ver qué hacen sus restos.
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: carlosz22 en Octubre 17, 2008, 00:54:20 am: La verdad es que es muy interesante, es impresionante como está aguantando a pesar de la cizalladura.

Ya podría venir hacia España como un Gordon en pequeñito :D
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 17, 2008, 03:40:40 am: Yo creo que OMAR ya fue absorvido por un sistem frontal!
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 06:39:01 am: Cita de: Angetotti en Octubre 17, 2008, 03:40:40 am
Yo creo que OMAR ya fue absorvido por un sistem frontal!

Todavía no, Angetotti, pero está muy desmejorado... Rebajado a tormenta tropical, y con rumbo a las Azores............. Vamos a ver...
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 14:58:05 pm: Jeff Masters hace algunos comentarios en su blog, por ejemplo, que es infrecuente que un huracán afecte a las Antillas Menores con la estación de huracanes tan avanzada, y cita a sólo 3 casos más, además de OMAR. También un ciclón raro por el movimiento que ha seguido hacia el NE aunque, tal como dice, para raro raro, el Gran Huracán LENNY de 1999, que surgió en el Caribe y se movió de Oeste a Este, por la misma zona que OMAR.

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Hurricane_Lenny.jpg)

(http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1999_charts/at199912.gif) (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199912.asp)

Clicando en el mapa de trayectoria, se accede al archivo de datos para el ciclón en Wunderground. LENNY fue el ciclón tropical número 12, y el último de aquella estación de huracanes de 1999.
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 15:36:10 pm: En otro orden de cosas, aunque la cizalladura mantiene a OMAR descompensado y roto estructuralmente, la convección ha ganado mucha potencia respecto de ayer... Basta con mirar la última imagen del satélite en modo visible...

(http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/7977/2008al151kmsrvis2008101nq6.gif)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 15:51:37 pm: Ya se ve en las imágenes más generales... Ésta, de Dundee, de las 12 UTC :D

(http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/6743/omarrrom9.jpg)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 18:42:11 pm: Está claro que OMAR se resiste a morir, y se ha reintensificado, rozando de nuevo la fuerza de huracán :D1

(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/2491/2008al151kmsrvis2008101uh5.gif)

000
WTNT45 KNHC 171505
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY
CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT
ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60
KT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.

OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND...LIKELY CAUSING
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH
MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS
OF THESE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...AND THE FASTER
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY...OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF...BUT FASTER THAN...
THE SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE
OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
LOW TROPOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER
...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 28.9N 55.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 31.4N 53.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 49.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 36.6N 47.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 42.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 36.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 17, 2008, 20:26:51 pm: Ahora parece que vuelve a perder en organizacion :'(
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 17, 2008, 20:46:40 pm: No estoy tan seguro...................... Aún muestra una estructura similar a la de un huracán, con una característica central en forma de ojo poco definido...

(http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/6366/vislomarhr8.jpg)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 18, 2008, 14:27:40 pm: Ahí sigue nuestro OMAR, como tormenta tropical, aunque con los topes nubosos cada vez más calientes. A pesar de todo, aún conserva una cierta forma y los meteorólogos del CNH del Florida tampoco quieren dar por concluído el seguimiento del ciclón, pues conserva cierto poder de regeneración... Seguramente por una cizalladura más relajada, aspecto que se ve fácilmente por la expansión de la nubosidad. No veo tan fácil que lo que queda de OMAR sea absorbido por ningún frente, vaguada o borrasca ondulatoria común...

(http://img388.imageshack.us/img388/7937/vislomar2un4.jpg)
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 18, 2008, 17:10:29 pm: Último aviso sobre OMAR... Los meteorólogos del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida consideran que no hay suficiente actividad convectiva como para seguir considerando a OMAR como ciclón tropical, por lo que ya no se van a emitir más boletines sobre esta perturbación. Nosotros seguiremos esos remanentes, que siempre es interesante.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 181433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

OMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS
OVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA
FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW .

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT
OMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 33.4N 50.7W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 19/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 19/1200Z 36.5N 46.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/0000Z 37.5N 43.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1200Z 39.0N 38.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z 41.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: Gale en Octubre 19, 2008, 20:03:28 pm: OMAR aún existe..........................
Título: Re: Gran Huracán OMAR 15L - categoría 3 - (Atlántico - Mar Caribe)
Publicado por: carlosz22 en Octubre 19, 2008, 22:16:31 pm: Parece muy debilitado.

Pienso que en caso de aguantar llegará a España como una borrasquilla más :(