Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 21, 2011, 08:43:45 am
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Pero parece que se va a encontrar, una vez más, con condiciones atmosféricas hostiles... La tónica general esta temporada en el Atlántico Tropical.
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 210258
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL162011
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM EDT 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2011
...SE FORMA NUEVA TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO
CENTRAL TROPICAL...
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.2 NORTE 40.1 OESTE
COMO A 1585 MILLAS...2555 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 270 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS
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Pocos cambios en este segundo aviso.
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 41.8W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Si acaso un pequeño fortalecimiento en las próximas horas
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
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Pues ahora los modelos han cambiado mucho y solo la llevan fuera del Mar Caribe. EL GFDL mas o menos la mete, y al final de la carrera la saca, con rumbo a Haití y Puerto Rico. Veremos si gira, como lo han hecho los sistemas que han nacido por esa zona, o se convierte en el primer sistema en recorrer el Caribe. Aunque espero lo primero.
No se ve nada mal a estas horas, quizás con un poco más de fuerza ::)
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(http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/9213/opheliar.jpg)
Su aspecto esta mañana.
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Preciosas imagen nos está deleitando el Sat actual!
En la imagen vemos claramente como nos está entrando por las islas Canarias en capas altas de la atmósfera nubosidad de tipo alto y medio proveniente de la tormenta tropical OPHELIA.
(http://i55.tinypic.com/1qlkk0.jpg)
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Se está fortaleciendo... 3er boletín de aviso:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011
...OPHELIA BECOMES STRONGER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 43.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Aunque parece ser que se podría volver a debilitar en las próximas horas
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
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Por fin tenemos algo con que entretenernos ;D
Ophelia parece que sera como Maria. No pasara de TT según las previsiones en los próximos días ;) Ademas el recorrido parece ser muy parecido a Maria, aunque esta ultima paso mas al sur de donde parece que pasara Ophelia ;)
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Ayer todos los modelos lo metían directamente al caribe, y ahora ningún lo mete, alguien podría explicarme porque ?
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Hora local de Caracas 16:30pm
Sumario de las 5pm AST del CNH
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.6 NORTE 44.7 OESTE
COMO A 1165 MILLAS...1875 KILOMETROS AL ESTE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MILLAS POR HORA...95 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MILLAS POR
HORA...26 KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS
Imágenes visibles recientes:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/d-3.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-3.jpg)
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No perderemos de vista a OPHELIA porque, a medio-largo plazo puede convertirse en el 4º huracán de la temporada. Además los anticiclones en el Atlántico norte tienden a comportarse de una forma extraña en ese periodo, y no sería de extrañar un recurve temprano del ciclón, en plan GORDON 2006... Estaremos atentos :P
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Hora local de Caracas 16:30pm
Ophelia entrando en penumbra, dejando ver el vórtice por la fuerte cizalladura
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/d-4.jpg)
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:o :o
(http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/3308/sinttulolzx.png)
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Hora local de Caracas 15:30pm
Resurge posiblemente como TT nuevamente. Reubicada en los 17,5ºN y 60,3ºO. Se mueve muy lentamente al Oeste:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/avn-l-2.jpg)
FTP desde las 06Z
AL, 16, 2011092706, , BEST, 0, 173N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ,
AL, 16, 2011092712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 599W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ,
AL, 16, 2011092718, , BEST, 0, 175N, 603W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ,
Un cazahuracanes sobrevuela el sistema, a esperar boletín
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Es oficial. Depresión Tropical OPHELIA, se espera que llegue a ser Huracán. Se está moviendo al Oeste Noroeste a 5 mph ::)
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OPHELIA se revitaliza y recupera el estatus de tormenta tropical ;)
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT OPHELIA HAS
REGAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE
52 KT AND THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE
40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
45 KT. THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING AS MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT GUIDANCE.
FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN
WOBBLING...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/03. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR TO THE FORECAST ITSELF. OPHELIA SHOULD
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...A
LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 18.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.9N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.5N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 28.5N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Después de casi un mes ausente por motivos personales y profesionales, a ver si puedo retomar los seguimientos desde la letra "P" :P
Un saludo a todos!
(http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/8812/goes15152011272txti3u.jpg)
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Ophelia próxima a alcanzar la cat. de huracán.
60kts-991mb
(http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/8812/goes15152011272txti3u.jpg)
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Efectivamente, está a puntito de convertirse en huracán...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY.
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Le falta el ultimo empujoncito para ser huracán ;D Tiene muy buena pinta y en la imagen de color se ve claramente que esta intentando formar un ojo ::) ::)
(http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/3066/opheliaa.jpg)
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Muy buena esa imagen, Tormentones :D1 Ahí se observa perfectamente!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 291446
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
...OPHELIA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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Hora local de Caracas 17:25pm
Ophelia es un huracán CAT1:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000010-6.jpg)
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.4 NORTE 62.3 OESTE
COMO A 770 MILLAS...1235 KILOMETROS AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MILLAS POR HORA...120 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS
En la siguiente foto junto a Philippe, habrá fujiwhara ??? ??? :O* :O*
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/410688144.jpg)
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Wow........ Sí que están próximos entre sí! Cambiado el título del hilo ;)
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Tenemos Cat. 2 :D1 :D1 :D1
Se ha intensificado mas de lo previsto. Tiene vientos sostenidos de 105 mph, con rachas maximas de 125 mph.
Y en la imagen visible se le ve con una pinta excelente, con un ojo bien formado :o :D ¿Tendremos un mayor? ::) ::)
(http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5958/huracanj.jpg)
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Excelente animación del satélite MIMIC, donde se ve perfectamente el desarrollo del ojo de Ophelia.
Destacar que en las ultimas horas ha cerrado la pared ojo por todos sus flancos, después de que estuviera expuesto el flanco suroeste, como se ve en la animación ;)
(http://i54.tinypic.com/142a7ph.gif)
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Wow...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT ON BOTH INFRARED AND
NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEVELOPED AND CLOSED DEEP-LAYER EYE...ALBEIT TILTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB...T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE
ADT OF T4.7/82 KT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 85-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. OPHELIA IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS...AND WILL ACT TO
ACCELERATE AND LIFT OPHELIA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY
DAYS 3-4...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A STRONG POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL TURN EASTWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE TRACKS AFTER 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE NEW ECMWF RUN BARELY
TAKES OPHELIA AS FAR NORTH AS 45N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...BUT
NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK.
THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE AS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACH ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH FURTHER RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS A POSSIBILITY...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
THE SHIPS MODEL TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE EYE TILTED AT TIMES AND LIKELY
DISRUPT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL OPHELIA REACHES 22C AND
COLDER SSTS SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH AN EXPECTED SHARP INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL AFTER THAT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW HOLDING ON TO OPHELIA AS A ROBUST EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEYOND 96 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 22.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.2N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 27.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 30.1N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 34.6N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 44.3N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 51.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Hora local de Caracas 11:25am
Contra todo pronóstico Ophelia alcanza la CAT3 y creo que dará para un CAT4. Es un pequeño sistema pero con una organización expectacular.
La estructura del eyewall está en sus mejores momentos, si mantiene estructura y dinámica alcanzará CAT4:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-4.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-4.gif)
Visible y detale del ojo: Magistral
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/d-5.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-7.gif)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST..1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.5 NORTE 62.8 OESTE
COMO A 620 MILLAS...1000 KILOMETROS AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS
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Que barbaridad, se le ve muy compacto y las paredes tremendas, precioso .... tocara tierra en el caribe o va a pasar sin afectar poblaciones por mitad del atlantico.
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Esa última imagen del visible es, sencillamente, ESPECTACULAR :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
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Qué buen seguimiento. ¡Cómo ha crecido en tan poco tiempo!
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Aja!! acerté diciendo que posiblemente tuviéramos un mayor :D1 :D1 La verdad es que nadie se esperaba que fuera tan poderoso este sistema.
Se mantiene con unos vientos de 120 mph y rachas de 150 mph :o
Tiene una pinta espectacular :o :o
(http://i53.tinypic.com/15z4369.gif)
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Las bandas exteriores de OPHELIA están alcanzando ya la isla de Bermuda ::) y parte de su eyewall ya se ve en sus imágenes de radar... Adjunto con el attach la última. También un enlace a su webcam: http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html
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Hora local de Caracas 14pm
Efectivamente Pedro, colocaré textualmente desde mi foro
Se mantiene como CAT3:
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Visible actual en perspectiva con la Isla de Bermuda
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1-35.jpg)
Ultima traza del doppler actual
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000006-24.jpg)
animación en el siguiente link http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp (http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp)
Webcam en vivo
http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html (http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 16:45pm
Se mantiene con pocos cambios a esta hora, eso sí avanzando muy rápido al Norte:
Doppler:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000007-12.jpg)
Detalle del ojo:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000008-9.gif)
Panorámica visible satelital:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000009-7.jpg)
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hora local de Caracas 20:45pm
Segundo gran huracán con esta CAT4 del Atlántico. Radiografía para archivos:
Microondas
Aqui era CAT3 a las 18:30 UTC:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000010-8.jpg)
Actualmente como CAT4:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000011-2.jpg)
Bajo el Radar de Bermuda:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000008-10.jpg)
La representación de vientos no esta actualizada aún, sin embargo es posible que ese semicirculo correspondiente al Eyewall se haya cerrado por completo:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000009-8.jpg)
En la infraroja aparece ovalado, interesante estructura:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1-36.jpg)
Sumario del CNH:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
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Brutal, Eric :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o Contra pronóstico, el bicho ha seguido intensificándose hasta la categoría 4 :-X
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020254
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
DURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND
HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION. MORE
RECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH
CIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23. A
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL
LIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT
TIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 33.8N 62.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Adjunto imagen con el attach de OPHELIA, una imagen impresionante, en que se observa cómo el coloso tiene un denso eyewall que parece protegerle de la cizalladura.
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Ya ha sido rebajada a cat.3 y a partir de ahora ira poco a poco perdiendo intensidad conforme se dirija al sur de Terranova y despues a mitad del Atlántico ;)
Ahora mismo tiene vientos sostenidos de 125 mph y rachas máximas de 155 mph ;)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:25am
Excelente observación Pedro. Tomare tu imagen para mi foro, no estaba de turno a esa hora (durmiendo) ;D ;D
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Última imagen de Ophelia en el visible, a la altura de Terranova como perturbación extratropical
(http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/796/ophelliavisible.jpg)
Y último boletín del NHC...
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
(...)
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH...
59 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...
465 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
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Pone rumbo a Reino Unido (http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/temas-de-meteorologa-general/ophelia-tambien-pone-rumbo-al-reino-unido/).... ::)