Parece que la mayoría de las áreas de lluvias fuertes no tocarán tierra, tal vez el centro de circulación se forme un poco más al E, ahora todos los modelos lo dan atravesando la isla de Cuba en algún punto y Jeff Master lo ubica también cerca de Jamaica y el este de Cuba el domingo o lunes. De cualquier manera no pienso que llegue a convertirse en un huracán, tal vez no rebase de ser un TTropical.

Gracias por avisar, Meteomaníaco

Adjunto el primer boletín de discusión emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida

000
WTNT43 KNHC 052102
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
FOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1004 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDED
APPEARANCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL
AND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
CUBA.  IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR
THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE
TIME BEING.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ABRUPT WEAKENING.

A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4.  A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  A DEEP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.  LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  WE'RE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 14.0N  81.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N  82.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.8N  82.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N  82.9W    50 KT
48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N  83.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  82.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N  80.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N  75.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Según lo comentado en este boletín, el futuro RENE tiene campo abonado para convertirse en huracán, al menos de categoría 1, aunque después la cizalladura sufriría un aumento radical que lo destruiría en un abrir y cerrar de ojos. Sea como sea, es muy probable que tengamos un nuevo huracán en 48 horas...

de nada!!!

seguramente aqui en Quintana Roo emitiran alguna alerta, pero seria la futura PALOMA no???

Upsssssss! Es verdad, que la 16L no consiguió pasar de depresión tropical Corregido.

Los vientos en altura vuelven a ser MUY favorables para una rápida intensificación del sistema, parece que este año la madre natura no nos va a dejar tranquilos, pienso que debe pasar por el centro - oriente de la isla y desde ya me preocupo, no tanto por las pérdidas de vidas humanas sino por la economía que ya ha sido golpeada dos veces duramente este año.

Qué piensan ustedes sobre los modelos de pronósticos?

Muchas gracias por tu forecast Meteomaniaco, yo pienso similar a usted aunque en esto solo soy un aficionado menor, nos ha llevado recio la naturaleza pero no se preocupen que estamos preparados y saldremos de este embate. Por lo pronto seguiré aquí con ustedes.

CMC es el que mas acerca a 17L de la peninsula de yucatan!

Ya la tenemos aquí. Adjunto boletín de discusión del CNH de Florida, y previsión de trayectoria..........

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060858
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.

UP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL.  AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6.  PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THIS FLOW SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS.  FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS.  SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

IF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS.  HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THE
STORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  82.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N  82.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.5N  83.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  82.8W    75 KT
72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N  81.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  78.0W    65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Muy interesante este boletín pues, además de confirmarse el rumbo hacia Cuba, los modelos indican una fuerte intensificación dentro de las próximas 72 horas, pudiendo convertirse PALOMA en un categoría 2 de huracán.......... Antes de que la cizalladura comience a destruirlo.