La última discusión del CNH lo dice absolutamente todo........ Para enmarcar :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY
VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE
COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
LINDA IN 1997.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL
FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS
VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR
SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM
MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH.  THIS
NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD
MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS
RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND
AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W   155 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W   160 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W   150 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   140 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W   120 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W    40 KT...INLAND

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/09  12.1N 97.0W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/09  12.4N 97.7W     50        999     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/09  12.5N 98.7W     65        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/09  12.7N 99.4W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/16/09  13.0N 100.0W     85        981     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/17/09  13.3N 101.0W    100        975     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/17/09  13.9N 102.0W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
10 GMT 10/17/09  14.0N 102.3W    135        948     Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/17/09  14.2N 103.0W    145        938     Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/17/09  14.8N 104.5W    150        934     Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/18/09  15.0N 105.9W    180        906     Category 5 Hurricane

En la imagen de Pedro,es brutal....salvo un defectillo en el noroeste  por el frentecillo ese, sería casi anular.
Por lo que veo ahora....ES ANULAR, eso significa quesi se ordena más, puede intensificar aun un poco .

Fuente:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g7pQM8C72q8UvpJsiPjJeaJOQkUQ
Agencia:AFP

A las 3h00 GMT de este domingo, Rick se ubicaba 975 km al sur-sureste de la localidad costera de Cabo San Lucas y se desplaza con rumbo oeste-noroeste a 22 km/h, en paralelo a las costas del sur de México, señaló el CNH. Se ubica además a 475 km al sur-suroeste de Manzanillo, uno de los mayores puertos de la región.

El CNH estima que el "extremadamente peligroso" huracán permanecerá frente a las costas mexicanas del sur del Pacífico durante el fin de semana. Se espera que el Rick pase cerca de la península mexicana de Baja California el miércoles y toque tierra al noroeste de México el jueves.

El centro de control estadounidense advirtió de que los residentes de esas zonas deben seguir con atención el avance del huracán. Rick es el séptimo huracán de la temporada en el Pacífico, que este año registra una fuerte actividad ciclónica, a diferencia del Atlántico, por la presencia del fenómeno climático El Niño, que genera una calentamiento de las aguas.

WOW... digo... GUAU... qué terrorífica belleza que nos ofrece la naturaleza... lástima que estas últimas semanas no haya podido dedicarme a seguimientos...
La verdad es que pocos ciclones tan perfectos hemos visto en el foro. Gracias por esas imágenes Pedro.



Rick retocado en Lightroom:

a las 16h45..155kts-906mb

Imagen de NOAA de ayer sabado a las 11pm (hora de ellos)...




Un video de su formacion vista a traves de distintos canales...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFg8hgwlt_0[/youtube]


Y otro con una aproximacion al ojo del modis y algunas animaciones mas...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2D71cx5EHo[/youtube]