Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Octubre 16, 2009, 14:55:57 pm
-
Nace Rick en pacífico. Tiene vientos de 55kts y 994MB de presión.
Dirección calcada a LUPIT. RICK lleva dirección WNW
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7820/ep200920sat.jpg)
-
RICK es huracan cat 1 :o
Tracking Info For Hurricane Rick
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/09 12.1N 97.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/09 12.4N 97.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/09 12.5N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/09 12.7N 99.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
-
parece que tendremos otro huracan mayor rondando california aunque mucho mas alejado que jimena.
PD: me corrigo. ahora mismo es huracan categoria 3!!!! :o :o :o y veremos haber si no llega a categoria 5.
(http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/7382/rblo.jpg) (http://img245.imageshack.us/i/rblo.jpg/)
-
RICK ya se convierte en HURACÁN categoría 4 :o :o
Tiene 948MB de presión central y lleva consigo vientos de 213Km/h con rachas más fuertes.
Tiene ambiente favorable para convertirse en huracán de categoría 5.
Misma trayectoria de ayer: WNW. ALgunos modelos lo llevan a Baja california.
(http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/9307/101114psm.gif)
(http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/5383/101114w5nlsm.gif)
(http://img2.imageshack.us/img2/2630/rbln.jpg)
8) 8)
-
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 13:57:55 N Lon : 102:18:01 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 943.3mb/122.2kt
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2009_20E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif)
-
Como dije, RICK tiene ambiente favorable para que se convierta en HURACÁN CATEGORÍA 5 esta noche.
EL NHC emite un parte especial, lo han adelantado.
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 171011
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
...RICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
AT 315 AM PDT...1015 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES
...410 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND RICK
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. 8)
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 315 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 102.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
-
ADT
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 14:02:59 N Lon : 102:36:00 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 938.1mb/127.0kt
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1015Z 14.0N 102.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W 80 KT
-
Me había pasado completamente desapercibido este bicho :o :o :o :o :o
-
120kts-942mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1491606719.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1491606719.html)
Tracking Info For Hurricane Rick
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/09 12.1N 97.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/09 12.4N 97.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/09 12.5N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/09 12.7N 99.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/16/09 13.0N 100.0W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/17/09 13.3N 101.0W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/17/09 13.9N 102.0W 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane
10 GMT 10/17/09 14.0N 102.3W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/17/09 14.2N 103.0W 145 938 Category 4 Hurricane
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1728522508.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1728522508.html)
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1812188147.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1812188147.html)
(http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/1073/200920ericci.png) (http://img376.imageshack.us/i/200920ericci.png/)
-
Las imágenes infrarrojas muestra topes más fríos en el tifón LUPIT que en el gran huracán RICK............ ¿Habrá perdido fuerza? Yo diría que sí a tenor de esas diferencias entre dos ciclones que se suponen de la misma intensidad... Adjunto una bellísima imagen visible de RICK, la última :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X
(http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/8200/rickvis171009.gif)
-
Está el pacifico que echa humo, vaya bestias hay en el este y oeste, Rick parece que seguirá la senda del anterior gran huracan, que no recuerdo el nombre, hacia baja california... :-X
-
Está el pacifico que echa humo, vaya bestias hay en el este y oeste, Rick parece que seguirá la senda del anterior gran huracan, que no recuerdo el nombre, hacia baja california... :-X
¿JIMENA? :P ;D
-
Ahora parece que su ojo se ha extendido algunos kilometros ::) ::) ::) Auguran que llegara a categoria 5
-
000
WTPZ65 KNHC 172208
TCUEP5
HURRICANE RICK TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
310 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
...RICK BECOMES A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260 KM/HR.
:o
-
La imagen visible de estas horas es una absoluta pasada!!! Qué pena no estar en casa para poderla postear... Es de una belleza increíble!!! Ojo perfecto y un anillo de convección extensísimo y de una simetría perfecta! Menudo monstruo!
-
...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...
NHC
:o :o :o
-
La última discusión del CNH lo dice absolutamente todo........ Para enmarcar :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY
VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE
COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
LINDA IN 1997.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL
FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS
VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR
SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM
MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS
NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD
MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS
RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND
AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND
-
De los ciclones más bestias que he visto nunca.................... Ahí van dos imágenes... Una me la he guardado en el Iphone de fondo de pantalla 8)
(http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/3412/rickcat5b.gif)
(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/9522/rickcat5.gif)
-
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/09 12.1N 97.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/09 12.4N 97.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/09 12.5N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/09 12.7N 99.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/16/09 13.0N 100.0W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/17/09 13.3N 101.0W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/17/09 13.9N 102.0W 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane
10 GMT 10/17/09 14.0N 102.3W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/17/09 14.2N 103.0W 145 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/17/09 14.8N 104.5W 150 934 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/18/09 15.0N 105.9W 180 906 Category 5 Hurricane
-
Que Hermoso es este huracan, es Perfecto!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yo lo pondre en el fondo de mi computadora!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;D
-
En la imagen de Pedro,es brutal....salvo un defectillo en el noroeste por el frentecillo ese, sería casi anular.
Por lo que veo ahora....ES ANULAR, eso significa quesi se ordena más, puede intensificar aun un poco :o :o.
Fuente:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g7pQM8C72q8UvpJsiPjJeaJOQkUQ (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g7pQM8C72q8UvpJsiPjJeaJOQkUQ)
Agencia:AFP
A las 3h00 GMT de este domingo, Rick se ubicaba 975 km al sur-sureste de la localidad costera de Cabo San Lucas y se desplaza con rumbo oeste-noroeste a 22 km/h, en paralelo a las costas del sur de México, señaló el CNH. Se ubica además a 475 km al sur-suroeste de Manzanillo, uno de los mayores puertos de la región.
El CNH estima que el "extremadamente peligroso" huracán permanecerá frente a las costas mexicanas del sur del Pacífico durante el fin de semana. Se espera que el Rick pase cerca de la península mexicana de Baja California el miércoles y toque tierra al noroeste de México el jueves.
El centro de control estadounidense advirtió de que los residentes de esas zonas deben seguir con atención el avance del huracán. Rick es el séptimo huracán de la temporada en el Pacífico, que este año registra una fuerte actividad ciclónica, a diferencia del Atlántico, por la presencia del fenómeno climático El Niño, que genera una calentamiento de las aguas.
(http://smn.cna.gob.mx/satelite/goesE/h2ox4/goesEc.jpg)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP2009W5_NL_sm2+gif/083814W5_NL_sm.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP2009T_sm2+gif/083814P_sm.gif)
-
Jue ya es categoria 5 ;D ;D ;D
Como se me habia podido pasar, ni me habia enteradoooooooooooooooooooo
(http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6562/rick1o.jpg)
-
Simplemente, increíble.
Es Huracán CATEGORÍA 5 con vientos de 155kts y 906MB de presión.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
-- Current Analysis --
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 081500 UTC
Lat : 15:18:00 N Lon : 107:06:06 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.5mb/158.0kt
Sigue con trayectoria WNW
(http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/4527/image2or.gif)
-
De los ciclones más bestias que he visto nunca.................... Ahí van dos imágenes... Una me la he guardado en el Iphone de fondo de pantalla 8)
(http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/3412/rickcat5b.gif)
(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/9522/rickcat5.gif)
Joder!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! son de una belleza que asustan.
-
WOW... digo... GUAU... qué terrorífica belleza que nos ofrece la naturaleza... lástima que estas últimas semanas no haya podido dedicarme a seguimientos...
La verdad es que pocos ciclones tan perfectos hemos visto en el foro. Gracias por esas imágenes Pedro.
(http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/9357/200910181507f16xcomposi.jpg)
Rick retocado en Lightroom:
(http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/7443/ricka20092902020250m2k.jpg)
-
Es magnifico este superHuracan :o y parece que va directo a CAbo San Lucas y seria el 2º huracan en llegar esta temporada :o
Ha perdido un pelin de fuerza.
Tracking Info For Hurricane Rick
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/09 12.1N 97.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/09 12.4N 97.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/09 12.5N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/09 12.7N 99.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/16/09 13.0N 100.0W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/17/09 13.3N 101.0W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/17/09 13.9N 102.0W 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane
10 GMT 10/17/09 14.0N 102.3W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/17/09 14.2N 103.0W 145 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/17/09 14.8N 104.5W 150 934 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/18/09 15.0N 105.9W 180 906 Category 5 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/18/09 15.3N 107.2W 180 906 Category 5 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/18/09 15.8N 108.3W 175 914 Category 5 Hurricane
Impresionantes imágenes amigos.
-
a las 16h45..155kts-906mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1946362821.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1946362821.html)
-
Impresionante este huracán, la verdad es que va a batir records... :D1 :D1, yo tampoco me había enterado.
Toda una preciosidad!!!
-
Imagen de NOAA de ayer sabado a las 11pm (hora de ellos)... 8)
(http://www.chippewa.com/content/articles/2009/10/18/ap/headlines/tropical_weather.jpg)
Un video de su formacion vista a traves de distintos canales...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFg8hgwlt_0[/youtube]
Y otro con una aproximacion al ojo del modis y algunas animaciones mas...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2D71cx5EHo[/youtube]
-
El segundo vídeo es la leche :o :o :o
-
es simplemente perfecto en su belleza ;)
-
Fantasticos esos videos ! por cierto, el amigo Jeff ya habla de Rick como el 2º huracan mas poderoso en el pacifico Este desde que se tienen mediciones y recuentos de estos fenomenos:
Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure.
Huracán Rick intensificado de manera dramática ayer en el segundo huracán más potente jamás registrado en el Pacífico Oriental. Realmente se merece el título de "Super huracán", Rick se convirtió en una monstruosa tormenta de categoría 5 con vientos de 180 mph y una presión central de 906 mb esta mañana temprano. El huracán del Pacífico Oriental que ha sido el más fuerte fue el huracán Linda de 1997, que llevaba vientos de 185 mph y una presión de 902 mb.
Todo el post del amigo Jeff:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1353
Asistimos pues a uno de los mas poderosos huracanes medidos hasta la fecha en el pacifico este :o
-
Esta madrugada flipé desde el curro, en la hora del bocata, cuando descargué con el Iphone la última imagen del canal visible de RICK....................... Una belleza increíble!! Con el efecto estadio destapado por completo :o :o :o :o :o :o
Está perdiendo fuelle.
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RICK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AROUND
THE EYE...AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DECREASED.
ALSO...THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS THINNED...WITH A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ABOUT 100
MILES FROM THE CENTER. CONSISTENT WITH THESE TRENDS...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED. DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
WERE 6.5/7.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RICK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT STILL LIES
ABOVE THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND RICK WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL. RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. RICK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 135W AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE RICK TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE HOW QUICKLY RICK WILL MOVE AS IT
RECURVES. BY 72 HOURS...THE ECMWF...GFDL AND GFDN ARE CONSIDERABLY
FASTER...WHILE THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER.
THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW
RICK INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST...RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
TWO OR THREE DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
BAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.4N 109.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
-
Imagen de alta resolución de ayer, 18............ :o :o :o :o :o
(http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/7622/rick181009.jpg)
-
Aunque parece que se ve bastante tocado por su lado oeste.... ahora mismo es un huracan de fuerza 4... esta espectaular
(http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/4660/rick2.jpg)
-
ya es huracan categoria 3 y a perdido su ojo. podria estar haciendo un emplazamiento del ojo
(http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/3984/wvl.jpg) (http://img137.imageshack.us/i/wvl.jpg/)
-
Todo queda recogido en el primer párrafo del boletín de discusión del CNH: está penetrando aire seco en la estructura del ciclón, la cizalladura está aumentando (del SW), y el flujo de salida de niveles altos también está quedando más apartado............ En definitiva y afortunadamente para los habitantes de California, RICK está perdiendo fuelle de forma progresiva y definitiva...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE. EVEN
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO
WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO. RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH. THEN...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. THE ENVELOPE
OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST.
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Es increíble cómo la cizalladura interviene en la estructura de un ciclón tropical.......... RICK aparece a estas horas sufriendo un colapso de su estructura, que se está desmoronando precisamente por esa cizalladura del SW.
-
Es increíble cómo la cizalladura interviene en la estructura de un ciclón tropical.......... RICK aparece a estas horas sufriendo un colapso de su estructura, que se está desmoronando precisamente por esa cizalladura del SW.
Fijaros que bien se ve esto que comentaba en el modo multisensor........ Se ve la estructura destruída y toda la convección al E del centro... Si mantiene vientos de 100 KT será por la ley de conservación del movimiento y su inercia, más que por su estructura...
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/4936/rickmulti.jpg)
-
Se ve como una Tormenta Tropical. Asi como se desarrollo se esta desintegrando :'(
-
El que fuera un coloso, ha sucumbido al ambiente hostil, y RICK es actualmente una tormenta tropical, en su proceso de debilitamiento gradual...
-
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210856
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK RESUMES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.8N 108.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
-
todavia con 50kts-990mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1468621021.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1468621021.html)
-
;)
(http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/1659/gifsby12hr08rick.gif) (http://img12.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr08rick.gif/)