Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Octubre 04, 2014, 18:29:42 pm
-
Bestial progresión la de este huracán, que muestra a estas horas un pinhole eye... :o :o :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHbBkxIAAA-u_F.png:large)
-
Probablemente ya sea un huracán mayor o gran huracán......... pero el dato oficial es categoría 2 con 90 KT, a 5 tan solo de la categoría 3...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHceUcIQAE0SrU.png:large)
-
Por lo que leo, creo que ya ha alcanzado Categoría 3. 952 mb/115 mph as of 11AM PDT.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHyW5-CEAAgsD_.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHyln4CIAAGHsh.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHyln4CIAAGHsh.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzHGKMAIUAAJ3aY.png)
-
Así es... es lo que reporta el avión cazahuracanes que lo ha investigado! :D1
000
WTPZ64 KNHC 041753
TCUEP4
HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 114.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
-
Impresionante el loop de imágenes del visible :o :o :o :o :o
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-_8W1LETcD9s/VDBQrUu0ESI/AAAAAAAAByk/CKSgzUMAejo/w720-h480-no/simon.gif)
-
Y otra...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIMtvMCEAAy2CI.png:large)
-
La última imagen del canal visible del día de ayer era increíble... Efecto Estadio en un ojo muy pequeño!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzK06RUIUAAOsgm.png:large)
-
Wow... otro categoría 4....
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050232
TCDEP4
HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today,
satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and
surrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective and
objective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on
the Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was
adjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four
Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season.
Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters,
and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so.
Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves
northward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these two
factors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the
next few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is
likely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.
Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or
315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is
forecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon
northward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies,
and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48
hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after
recurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in
accelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite
so fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at
this time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be
indicated in the next forecast.
The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring
another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a
few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzJo3apIIAEIzCx.jpg:large)
-
El secreto del gran huracan Simon, Pacifico noreste, octubre 2014 (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/meteo-didica-topmenu-39-sp-10806/53-aprende-sobre-ciclones-tropicales/4221-el-secreto-del-gran-huracan-simon-pacifico-noreste-octubre-2014)