WTPA45 PHFO 152055
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014
 
ANA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1435 AND 1744 UTC SHOWED THAT THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WAS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHEAR IMPINGING
ON THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW
AN EXPANDING AND MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS EASING AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM
PHFO AND JTWC...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.
CONSIDERING THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ANA MAY BE
CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS 270/8KT WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANA
TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE
BECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE CONSENSUS
TRACK HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED. THUS...THE CURRENT TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A VERY
SMALL INCREASE IN SPEED. THE TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ANA JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THEN NORTHWEST NEAR KAUAI AND
OAHU. THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SCHEDULED
TO BEGIN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ANA LATER TODAY. THE DATA
FROM THESE FLIGHTS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
DESPITE THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANA...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANA...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER PACKAGES. HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHILE SHIPS INDICATES ANA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
TO 36 HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...THE FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION AND
CALLS FOR ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A PEAK
INTENSITY FORECAST OF 80 KT IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SHIPS CALLS FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO
START WEAKENING ANA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 14.3N 147.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 14.6N 148.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 15.1N 150.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 15.9N 152.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.0N 153.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 19.4N 156.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 21.0N 158.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 22.5N 159.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/13/14  12.8N 143.2W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/14/14  12.9N 142.5W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/14/14  13.2N 142.9W     45       1003     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/14/14  13.4N 143.3W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/14/14  14.0N 144.2W     65        997     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/15/14  13.9N 145.2W     65        996     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/15/14  14.1N 146.1W     70        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/15/14  14.3N 146.5W     70        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/15/14  14.3N 147.4W     70        994     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/16/14  14.1N 148.4W     65        998     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/14  14.1N 149.3W     60       1000     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/14  14.1N 150.3W     60       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/16/14  14.3N 150.9W     60       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/17/14  14.6N 151.9W     60       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/17/14  15.2N 153.0W     65        998     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/17/14  15.7N 154.2W     70        992     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/17/14  16.4N 155.2W     75        990     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/18/14  17.0N 156.6W     80        986     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/18/14  17.8N 157.4W     85        985     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/18/14  18.5N 158.1W     80        986     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/18/14  19.3N 158.9W     80        988     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/19/14  19.9N 159.2W     80        987     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/19/14  20.3N 159.5W     80        989     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/19/14  20.6N 159.7W     80        989     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/19/14  20.7N 160.6W     75        992     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/20/14  20.8N 161.3W     70        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/20/14  20.7N 162.2W     70        995     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/20/14  20.6N 163.3W     70        995     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/20/14  20.9N 164.0W     65        996     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/21/14  20.6N 164.4W     60        997     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/21/14  21.0N 164.7W     50        999     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/21/14  20.9N 165.9W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/21/14  21.2N 165.7W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/22/14  21.9N 166.4W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/22/14  22.4N 167.1W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/22/14  22.8N 167.4W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/22/14  23.8N 167.4W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/23/14  24.8N 167.9W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/23/14  25.5N 168.4W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/23/14  26.6N 168.9W     50        998     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/23/14  27.1N 169.7W     50        999     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/24/14  27.2N 170.2W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/24/14  27.9N 170.1W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/24/14  28.6N 169.8W     60        999     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/24/14  29.7N 169.3W     65        996     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/25/14  31.0N 167.8W     75        988     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/25/14  32.4N 165.8W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/25/14  34.3N 163.4W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane