Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Octubre 16, 2014, 05:10:15 am
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WTPA45 PHFO 152055
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014
ANA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1435 AND 1744 UTC SHOWED THAT THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WAS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHEAR IMPINGING
ON THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW
AN EXPANDING AND MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS EASING AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM
PHFO AND JTWC...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.
CONSIDERING THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ANA MAY BE
CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS 270/8KT WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANA
TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE
BECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE CONSENSUS
TRACK HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED. THUS...THE CURRENT TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A VERY
SMALL INCREASE IN SPEED. THE TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ANA JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THEN NORTHWEST NEAR KAUAI AND
OAHU. THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SCHEDULED
TO BEGIN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ANA LATER TODAY. THE DATA
FROM THESE FLIGHTS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
DESPITE THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANA...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANA...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER PACKAGES. HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHILE SHIPS INDICATES ANA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
TO 36 HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...THE FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION AND
CALLS FOR ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A PEAK
INTENSITY FORECAST OF 80 KT IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SHIPS CALLS FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO
START WEAKENING ANA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 14.3N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 15.9N 152.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.0N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.4N 156.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 21.0N 158.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 22.5N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-b6S2eexroI0/VD82L_DmudI/AAAAAAAAB9k/0x7f2EMmea0/w720-h480/ana.gif)
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Al sur de isla Grande...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0Mr0p7CMAEQ62B.png:large)
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Interesante vídeo...
Tan solo 12 ciclones tropicales han afectado a las Hawai desde 1959...
Hurricane Ana to miss Hawaii (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6Vq1VYEJhE#ws)
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Animaciones interesantes, vía CIMSS... Ana sigue viva, aunque cizallada ;D
GOES-15 Visible Imagery, Tropical Cyclone Ana 15-21 October 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7ajUHpmeXs#)
Tropical Cyclone Ana, GOES-15 10.7 Infrared RSO Animation, 15-21 October 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQHuqCn7YjU#)
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Larga vida la de ANA... que anoche recuperó el estatus de huracán, tras rozar las Hawai... y apuntando a la costa oeste de Canadá...
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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21 GMT 10/13/14 12.8N 143.2W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/14/14 12.9N 142.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/14/14 13.2N 142.9W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/14/14 13.4N 143.3W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/14/14 14.0N 144.2W 65 997 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/15/14 13.9N 145.2W 65 996 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/15/14 14.1N 146.1W 70 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/15/14 14.3N 146.5W 70 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/15/14 14.3N 147.4W 70 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 148.4W 65 998 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 149.3W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 150.3W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/16/14 14.3N 150.9W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/17/14 14.6N 151.9W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/17/14 15.2N 153.0W 65 998 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/17/14 15.7N 154.2W 70 992 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/17/14 16.4N 155.2W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/18/14 17.0N 156.6W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/18/14 17.8N 157.4W 85 985 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/18/14 18.5N 158.1W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/18/14 19.3N 158.9W 80 988 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/19/14 19.9N 159.2W 80 987 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/19/14 20.3N 159.5W 80 989 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/19/14 20.6N 159.7W 80 989 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/19/14 20.7N 160.6W 75 992 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/20/14 20.8N 161.3W 70 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/20/14 20.7N 162.2W 70 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/20/14 20.6N 163.3W 70 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/20/14 20.9N 164.0W 65 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/21/14 20.6N 164.4W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/21/14 21.0N 164.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/21/14 20.9N 165.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/21/14 21.2N 165.7W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/22/14 21.9N 166.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/22/14 22.4N 167.1W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/22/14 22.8N 167.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/22/14 23.8N 167.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/23/14 24.8N 167.9W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/23/14 25.5N 168.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/23/14 26.6N 168.9W 50 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/23/14 27.1N 169.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/24/14 27.2N 170.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/24/14 27.9N 170.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/24/14 28.6N 169.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/24/14 29.7N 169.3W 65 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/25/14 31.0N 167.8W 75 988 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/25/14 32.4N 165.8W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/25/14 34.3N 163.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-ana-02c-pacifico-central-islas-hawai-octubre-2014/?action=dlattach;attach=28134;image)
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-ana-02c-pacifico-central-islas-hawai-octubre-2014/?action=dlattach;attach=28132;image)
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Y un twit de anoche...
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather · 14 h Hace 14 horas
Ana intensifies into a cat 1 hurricane N of Hawaii again winds 75 mph. Is one of 8 hurricanes in the E-pac above 30N.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0w-8xZIIAACdwB.png:large)