Probablemente, hoy se convertirá en Arthur

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010314
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
the circulation.  Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission.

The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
days seems to have slowed this evening.  The initial motion
estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
Tuesday.  After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
then northward.  A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate.  The model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
the coast of the southeastern United States.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
guidance.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance.  Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
extratropical by day 5.

Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 27.6N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 27.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 28.8N  79.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 30.1N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 33.0N  78.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 43.0N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Y aquí está!

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Excelente aspecto muestra la actual Tormenta Tropical Arthur en las últimas imágenes. Con bajos valores de cizalladura, así como la SST de buenos valores permitirán el desarrollo gradual de dicha tormenta. Se prevé que alcance la categoría de huracán con el paso de los días.
 

Un avión de reconocimiento de la fuerza aérea Estadounidense se dirige hacia la Tormenta Tropical Arthur. Es probable que encuentre vientos más intensos de los que actualmente se redacta en los avisos emitidos por el NHC.

Tras algunos problemas de shear e intrusiones de aire seco, Arthur está por fin perfectamente alineado en niveles medios y bajos. Debería empezar a ganar intensidad en breve. Debería...

Creo que lo está consiguiendo, pequeña pero matona.
Buena estructura. Sigo pensando que llegará a cat.1