Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Agosto 01, 2012, 22:31:05 pm
-
AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD
(http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/9854/goes20152012214vghkzy.jpg)
(http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/4766/storm99.gif)
-
Trayectoria del NHC, lo ve como huracán justo al sur de Jamaica. Preocupante y sorprendente viendo la nula confianza de los modelos en que sobreviviera al Caribe oriental.
--Edito-- GFS lo intensifica a huracán en el Caribe occidental en su salida de las 12z, no lo había visto :-X
Así pues el NHC se decanta por la solución propuesta por GFS frente a ECMWF que lo disipa en el Caribe oriental -----
(http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/225/203638w5nlsm.gif)
-
000
WTNT35 KNHC 012036
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
La idea de un huracán cruzando el Caribe Occidental es preocupante, viendo los niveles altos de TCHP de la zona.
(http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2012212ca.jpg)
-
Pronóstico de cizalladura de SHIPS, no es malo para 05L.
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 13 16 13 10 6 15 9 15 11
-
La discusión del nhc lo dice todo... han decidido tirar por la solución del GFS pero no tienen ni idea de lo que pasara en aguas caribeñas.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 012044
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012
DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.
-
Eso va pa Puerto Rico pero como una baja presion.
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:45pm
El aspecto de la DT 05AL es pésimo en comparación con lo que mostraba en horas vespertinas, y es que esta siendo afectada por una pluma de cizalladura por el Norte que desintegra la convección profunda en torno al LLC, posiblemente asociada a una vaguada en altura que se ha desprendido de una baja presión en niveles altos ubicada lejos al NE de la perturbación:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000014-55.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000015-43.jpg)
Esta situación puede ser transitoria y durante las próximas podría retomar su desarrollo, prácticamente desde cero :? :? . Asi luce a ésta hora:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/avn-2.jpg)
Los modelos tropicales adelantan la llegada al viernes en la noche a aguas caribeñas. El modelo GFS baja la intensidad del sistema una vez dentro del Caribe, posiblemente como DT solamente:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000016-32.jpg)
Mientras que el modelo CMC apuesta por una tormenta tropical un poco más al Norte:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000017-17.jpg)
El modelo NOGAPS de la US NAVY lo manda fuera del Caribe al Norte de las Antillas menores como un ciclón muy pobre o debilitado:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000018-11.jpg)
Mientras que el modelo ECMWF sencillamente no apuesta nada por éste sistema.
Estimo que dada la inesperada transición que ha tenido la depresión durante las últimas horas todas las proyecciones van a cambiar, así que la incertidumbre en cuanto a magnitud y trayectoria se incrementa.
Sigue el monitoreo
-
Curioso, pero ahora mismo la convección ha hecho PLUF! y ha desaparecido ;D :-X Esto queda reflejado en el boletín de discusión del CNH:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 020240
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION
TO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES...
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
FORECAST MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 12.6N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 15.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 16.8N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
EL NHC se muestra mas pesimista respecto al desarrollo de 05L
000
WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
-
Parece que el aire seco es el causante de esa pérdida de convección.
(http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/8686/imagezf.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11:30am
Luego de presentar un "bajón" convectivo, la DT 05AL retoma su reorganización durante la mañana de hoy (hora local) y la nubosidad convectiva inicia a formarse alrededor del vórtice:
Visible
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/a-37.jpg)
infarrrojo
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/b-25.jpg)
Tal como mencioné anoche, la cizalladura en contra iba a ser transitoria y ya sale de la pluma de corte que le afectó. Ahora parece que afectó también su trayectoria, ya que se espera se desplaze totalmente al Oeste durante los próximos 3 días, luego tomaría un giro ONO frente a las costas centroorientales. Atentos con esta proyección
Las proyección del CNH de Miami sugiere que alcance la categoría de Tormenta Tropical frente a las costas orientales de Venezuela, adquiriendo el nombre de Ernesto. Ha ganado velocidad, por lo que las estimaciones indican que entra al Caribe mañana en la mañana:
INIT 02/1500Z 13.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.1N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.7N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.7N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
Satélite infrarrojo actual
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/c-16.jpg)
Sumario y advertencia vigentes
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 54.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 450 MILLAS...725 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MILLAS POR HORA...55 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 20 MILLAS POR HORA...32
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS...SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS...Y DOMINICA
* SANTA LUCIA
* MARTINICA Y GUADALUPE
INTERESESADOS EN EL RESTO DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR
EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
-
En las animaciones de RGB se aprecia el aire seco interfiriendo en su cuadrante NW y cómo parece que recibe un aporte extra de humedad desde Sudamérica por el cuadrante SW.
-
Tras la visita de recon sube a Tormenta Tropical.
BEST TRACK: AL05, 128N 556W, 40kts, 1008mb, TS ERNESTO
-
(http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/6425/goes20152012215wmlf2h.jpg)
(http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/6606/goes201520122153fgsq7.jpg)
-
NHC actualiza y recupera la categoría de huracán para Ernesto en el Caribe occidental.
Muchos cambios y rectificaciones veremos durante los próximos días.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0512W5_NL+gif/203651W5_NL_sm.gif)
-
Expectante por ver las salidas de los modelos de las 00z ahora que pueden inicializar como Tormenta Tropical.
-
Increíble Fox cuando parecía que el sistema se moría , surge el quinto nombre de la temporada ciclónica de este año , de todas forma tiene un camino duro en las próximas 36h ya que el Caribe Oriental nunca ha sido favorable para los sistemas debíles como este ..... la pista mas allá de Jamaica dependerá cuan bien este el sistema y de cuanto se pueda fortalecer de ahí en adelante ............... y de también de la debilidad que encuentre en ese momento en la máxima que pueda tener a su Norte......Saludos a los demás foreros pues hacía tiempo que no compartía nada con ustedes........ :D1
-
Hora local de Caracas 10pm
Radar de Barbados
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000030-2.jpg)
-
Sube a tormenta tropical, pero tampoco tengo muy claro por qué, aunque supongo que el recon encontraría vientos en el vuelo que les hayan llevado a esta subida de estatus.
Sin embargo, la presentación satelital se me antoja pobrísima ??? ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4415/rb0_lalo030812_dhy9.jpg)
-
La verdad es que lleva dos días luchando contra condiciones bastante adversas... A ver como llega al Caribe oriental
-
Ernesto captado por el satélite GOES-13. Imagen coloreada resaltando las zonas más frías de la nubosidad en tonos anaranjados:
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-XwMk4wZXoAY/UBuNAfNxdBI/AAAAAAAABvw/613ovY5bu1M/s950/ernesto-tormenta-tropical.jpg)
Foto satelital del 2 de agosto a las 20.45 hora local.
-
Bonita imagen esa.
En cuanto a la intensidad, hummmm, casi todos coinciden en su intensificación en aguas caribeñas.
(http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/6633/al052012inten.png)
-
000
WTNT45 KNHC 030852
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
APART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS
GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND
45 KT.
THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND
THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED
RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER
WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER
GFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL
MOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.9N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 20.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
-
Loop reciente.
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/3152/zzt1rgbloop.gif)
-
Muy guapo............ 8)
-
Según el recon la presión sigue cayendo a 1002 mb y en los últimos visibles se aprecian más bandas espirales.
Así que parece que de momento aguanta razonablemente bien.
(http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/9656/vis0lalo.jpg)
-
Zoom...
(http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/7462/2012al051kmsrvis2012080.gif)
-
Jeff Masters comenta que el recon informó hace horas de un intento de Erenesto por construir un eyewall.
Y viendo el microondas 37H de la Navy sí que parece intuirse algo al respecto.
(http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4173/201208031030coriolisxco.jpg)
-
AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 131N, 555W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ,
AL, 05, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 133N, 574W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ,
AL, 05, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 137N, 598W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ,
AL, 05, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 136N, 615W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ,
Desde luego la presión sigue bajando :O*
-
según esta trayectoria directo a Cozumel
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0512W5_NL_sm2+gif/144731W5_NL_sm.gif)
-
Un seguimiento de cine, Santi :o :o :o :o Ahora bien, creo que nuestro ERNESTO las está pasando canutas de nuevo... Fijáos en esta imagen:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9301/GOES154520122166mKLV5_wuo2.jpg)
Se observan numerosos outflows procedentes de las tormentas que está generando, menos organizadas que antes, y más salpicadas... Esto estoy seguro que responde a la ingesta de aire seco por parte de ERNESTO, que inhibe los desarrollos convectivos y hace que los existentes se desinflen en forma de corrientes descendentes más intensas, de ahí los outflows...
-
Enésimo intento de Ernesto de consolidar convección en torno a su centro. ¿Lo conseguirá por fin o se quedará a medias como todas las veces anteriores?
(http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/784/zztemp.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 2:45pm
Nuestro radar de Carúpano (NE de Venezuela) captando el centro de la TT Ernesto, coordenadas recientes del ftp del CNH 13.8ºN 63.3ºO
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-37.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-16.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-29.gif)
Evidente conexión de bandas de lluvia indirectas con la tormenta en gran parte del oriente de Venezuela. Aqui lo llamamos (coletazos ;D ;D)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11pm
Parece haber bajado la velocidad de traslación durante las últimas horas.
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-17.gif)
-
Ernesto aguanta razonablemente bien. Shear pronosticado muy favorable por el CIMSS.
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F VF VF
Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable
-
(http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/1695/avnlx.jpg)
-
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4752/2012AL05_1KMSRVIS_201208041245_lsn1.GIF)
Está cogiendo fuelle... y al loro por las aguas que va a pasar...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040852
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
CORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
-
Desde más lejos... :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7013/vis0_laloeners_hfx8.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas
Otra Visible. Aqui en Venezuela dejó lluvias intensas indirectas hacia el NE del país por sus bandas traseras. Esperamos aqui en la capital "coletazos", ya se aprecian tormentas en los radares locales:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000018-3.jpg)
-
Se le ve un tanto debilitado, supongo que por la entrada de aire seco en capas medias.
Avila nos regala una de sus boletines marca de la casa.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6483/rgb0lalo.jpg)
-
Loop.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/k/KEEPEROFTHEGATE/1867.gif?r=1344092108)
-
Impresionante la calidad y detalle de la imagen satelital captada por el satélite Suomi este 3 de agosto a las 05:12 hora local.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vE0TZfd2xcY/UB1Ay2gSU-I/AAAAAAAABwM/DygMKOzoesA/s950/ernesto-tormenta-tropical-bis.jpg)
Para verla ampliada clicar aquí (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/20120803-Ernesto-VIIRS-nolabels.png).
-
GUAU! Menuda calidad tiene este Suomi, es impresionante.
Ernesto vuelve a recuperar los 50 kts tras su debilitamiento de esta tarde.
AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS
AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS
AL, 05, 2012080418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 693W, 50, 1003, TS
AL, 05, 2012080418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 693W, 50, 1003, TS
-
Bestial la imagen, Jose :D1 8) Como bestial este seguimiento siempre con la inestimable ayuda de Santi ;D
-
La página del CIMSS hace horas que no se actuliza, ni la de http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/)
-
No hay buena convergencia en niveles bajos, por lo tanto no hay intensificación. Claro que eso es viendo mapas de hace 5 horas, a ver si actualizan ya los de CIMSS >:(
-
Hora local de Caracas 4:45pm
La visible muestra una pelota convectiva justo en el centro del sistema:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000024-3.jpg)
-
Es la TT con mejor aspecto que he visto nunca
(http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2012%20Hurricane%20Season/grearth2012-08-0417-09-57-66.png)
-
Pues ERNESTO anda perezoso... Ha bajado algo de intensidad incluso, y no se sabe muy bien por qué ???
000
WTNT45 KNHC 050247
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STRONG CONVECTION...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1007 MB. SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT YET FULLY
SAMPLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
FOUND EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. HOWEVER...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH A SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED OF OVER 20 KT. A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 285/19...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
ADVISORY. THE REASON FOR THIS TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RESUME A
WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WHILE SOME SPREAD REMAINS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
REDUCED FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HR...MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO BETWEEN 72-96 HR AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 24 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME TO LIE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO
WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THE TRENDS DURING THE PAST 24 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH
ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48 HR. GIVE THE DIVERGENT
GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.3N 81.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 17.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
-
Ojito a la Península del Yucatán, que está en su punto de mira ahora mismo... ::)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11:45pm
Infrarrojo actual:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/K.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/l.jpg)
...AVION CAZAHURACANES REPORTA QUE ERNESTO HA PERDIDO ALGO DE
ORGANIZACION...
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...15.4 NORTE 72.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 285 MILLAS...455 KILOMETROS AL SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO
REPUBLICA DOMINICANA
CERCA DE 325 MILLAS...525 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE KINGSTON
JAMAICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 285 GRADOS A 22 MPH...35
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* JAMAICA
-
Se ha quedado muy debilitada... la convergencia en niveles bajos es casi inexistente, incluso el centro de cieculacion casi casi se ha abierto ???
Parece que esta totalmente desacoplada, en superficie corre demasiado ahora (20 mph) y en niveles medios a unos 10 mph
Una tormenta desconcertante, con todo a favor ha sido incapaz de intensificarse lo mas mínimo
-
En esta imagen de micrrondas se ve muy bien ese desacoplamiento entre las capas medias y bajas. El centro de circulación está desplazado al WNW de la masa convectiva principal. Se parecia también nuevos borbotones convectivos (en rojo) comenzando a surgir sobre el nuevo centro de circulación.
(http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/2646/rgb0lalow.jpg)
-
Puffff, esta totalmente desorganizada. El centro esta descubierto por completo ya, totalmente expuesto. Hay algunos borbotones convectivos a su alrededor, pero tiene un aspecto pobrisimo :-\
(http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/9290/ernesto.jpg)
-
¿Game Over? Problabemente. Por algo llaman al Caribe oriental el "cementerio de huracanes" :P
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:40pm
Fox el mejor aspecto lo presento en el Caribe oriental, justo frente a las costas de Venezuela. Ya sobre el Caribe Central es donde está presentando problemas.
Creo que al alta velocidad de traslación del vórtice afecta la verticalidad. Y pensar que hace días lo daban como un HU CAT1 en la zona actual ??? ???
-
Muchos saludos a todos en el foro desde Cancun !!!
Parece que se debila enormente Ernesto. :-\
Pero si tenemos huracan por aca esperen las fotos y videos !!!! 8)
:D1
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:45pm
Ernesto intenta organizarse nuevamente. Un avión de reconocimiento (RECON) viaja a la tormenta actualmente, veremos que transmite:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-30.jpg)
-
Ernesto ha frenado su velocidad de desplazamiento y parece que ha finalmente se ha acoplado verticalmente, o casi.
De momento se ha intensificado notablemente y por primera vez baja de los 1000 mb
Time: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/9656/vis0lalo.jpg)
-
Excepcional seguimiento el que habéis estado realizando desde ayer... Yo he estado un poco desconectado atendiendo a asuntos familiares y personales, a parte del terrible resfriado que me he enganchado, seguro que por culpa del aire acondicionado :(
Evidentemente, ERNESTO ha cambiado mucho desde ayer... Ha mejorado y ha conseguido reestructurar sus centros en la vertical, a la vez que la actividad convectiva... Esto se pone de manifiesto en la imagen de microondas. Viendo la cizalladura, creo que las posibilidades de que alcance el estaus d ehuracán antes del roce con el norte de Honduras son altas...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8106/ernest_ppx4.jpg)
-
Último visible con gran borbotón convectivo sobre ¿su centro?
Se rumorea que los recon han encontrado un ojo en formación, esperamos confirmarlo y veremos cómo afecta esta intensificación a su trayectoria a corto plazo, si es que afecta en algo.
(http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1194/201208061315goes13xvis1.jpg)
-
Se rumorea que los recon han encontrado un ojo en formación, esperamos confirmarlo y veremos cómo afecta esta intensificación a su trayectoria a corto plazo, si es que afecta en algo.
Look at this:
-
Pues sí Pedro, se confirma ese ojo que al parecer es muy pequeño en diámetro; se habla incluso de un pinhole eye, característico de huracanes en fase de rápida intensificación. Esa disminución de velocidad de desplazamiento de 24mph a 12 mph es todo lo que necesitaba para mostrar de lo que es capaz.
Va a estar interesante la tarde... :O*
-
Veo esto de la web del NOAA, como datos obtenidos por la dropsonde del avión cazahuracanes... Pero no sé interprearlos.
000
UZNT13 KNHC 061329
XXAA 56138 99157 70802 04550 99994 26825 11512 00552 ///// /////
92637 24850 06506 85377 21656 03013 88999 77999
31313 09608 81317
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1574N08018W 1319 MBL WND 10512 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07
508 994845 WL150 11513 083 REL 1574N08018W 131720 SPG 1574N08018W
131909 =
XXBB 56138 99157 70802 04550 00994 26825 11960 24420 22921 24856
33850 21656 44845 /////
21212 00994 11512 11967 11514 22957 10510 33946 08511 44919 06505
55876 05004 66865 01010 77856 02012 88845 04014
31313 09608 81317
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1574N08018W 1319 MBL WND 10512 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07
508 994845 WL150 11513 083 REL 1574N08018W 131720 SPG 1574N08018W
131909 =
;
-
Y del Vortex Data Message me llama la atención esto:
000
URNT12 KNHC 061344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/13:17:00Z
B. 15 deg 43 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 40 kt
E. 137 deg 3 nm
F. 235 deg 54 kt
G. 137 deg 3 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1538 m
J. 21 C / 1400 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;
-
Vale, ya lo tengo :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall :<<O :<<O :<<O
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind
-
AJAJÁ!!!! Bien pillado Pedro, tenemos ojo... es cuestión de poco tiempo que alcance la cat.1.
Ahora a ver si podemos confirmar esa RI (rápida intensificación)
-
AJAJÁ!!!! Bien pillado Pedro, tenemos ojo... es cuestión de poco tiempo que alcance la cat.1.
Ahora a ver si podemos confirmar esa RI (rápida intensificación)
No leí lo que hay justo debajo, ojo de 8 millas náuticas, que son 14,8 km... poquísimo! :o :o :o :o :o :o
-
AJAJÁ!!!! Bien pillado Pedro, tenemos ojo... es cuestión de poco tiempo que alcance la cat.1.
Ahora a ver si podemos confirmar esa RI (rápida intensificación)
No leí lo que hay justo debajo, ojo de 8 millas náuticas, que son 14,8 km... poquísimo! :o :o :o :o :o :o
Pues sí que es pequeño sí... no creo que sea un pinhole eye (Wilma por ej. tenía un ojo de 4 km) pero sin duda es síntoma de RI!!!
(http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/7875/reconusafmslpfltwnd.png)
-
Forzando mucho la imagen del visible última que hay de ERNESTO, creo que la disipación de nubes en el ojo se comienza a hacer visible:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1064/ern_sue4.jpg)
-
Bien pillado Pedro, estoy de acuerdo, pronto será visible ese pequeño ojo!
Mira esto:
Time: 14:31:30Z
Coordinates: 15.8667N 80.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,487 meters (~ 4,879 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.6 mb (~ 29.49 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 34° at 41 knots (From the NNE/NE at ~ 47.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (~ 60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr (~ 0.55 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
-
Un miniojo en el microondas, pero no parece muy consistente de momento.
Según el CIMSS la convergencia en superficie es muy pobre, con lo que no se yo si esto no será otro de esos arrebatos pasajeros de Ernesto. ::)
(http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/2313/21087920.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11:45am
ahorita no tengo instalado un editor de GIF por formateo reciente de laptops, pero pude "cortar" la última traza de la microonda MIMIC, donde se aprecia el anillo asociado a un posible eyewall
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000011-48.jpg)
-
LA consecuencia de todo lo comentado... que se espera que ERNESTO sea un huracán esta noche... ::) Curioso el hecho de que el avión cazahuracanes ha encontrado al centro del ciclón al noreste de la última posición dada, siendo incierto por qué ha ocurrido esto ;D
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061456
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.
WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Según el CIMSS la convergencia en superficie es muy pobre, con lo que no se yo si esto no será otro de esos arrebatos pasajeros de Ernesto. ::)
Pues diste en el clavo, porque ahora mirando las imágenes del sat, el CDO que había desarrollado esta tarde está haciendo ¡PLUF! y se está deshaciendo en una corona de cirros y poca convección :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7211/ft0_laloer_wgk6.jpg)
-
Lógico.......................
000
WTNT45 KNHC 062040
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...THE LAST COUPLE OF CENTER PENETRATIONS BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS INDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS STOPPED FALLING...FOR NOW...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
CORE CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHTNING DATA...HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SFMR
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ERNESTO IS IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
AFTER THE EARLIER REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS NOW 295/10.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE NORTH OF A RATHER WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE VERY FAR NORTH OVER THE GULF.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 81.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.7N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 19.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
¿Puede deberse esa falta de convergencia a la entrada de aire relativamente seco y caliente por su cuadrante SW?
(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8038/zzlatest72hrs.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 8:45pm
A pesar de la poca convección, presenta un aspecto interesante a los infrarrojos, con amplias bandas espiraladas:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-39.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000014-20.jpg)
Veremos que indica el RECON que lo evalua actualmente
-
Efectivamente, el aire seco en niveles medios... Las condiciones desfavorables parecen estar siendo la tónica general este año, lo cual se observa en la gráfica de inestabilidad vertical (ver abajo del todo de este post).
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070252
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO
HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100
NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS
OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS
FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT
THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 30
HOURS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
TIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT
FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR
THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS
ABOUT 1C WARMER AND INTO EVEN A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT
18-24 HOURS...THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND ERNESTO COULD STILL BECOME
A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AFTER THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 86.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.9N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 19.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 19.4N 97.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 19.2N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
Lo curioso es que en los mapas no se aprecia ese aire seco interfiriendo con Ernesto...
(http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/8586/wvlv.jpg)
-
Tengo a la respuesta a los misterioros desvanecimientos de Ernesto...
¡CHEMTRAILS!
:DDD :DDD :DDD
-
Pues veremos... porque los meteorólogos del CNH apuestan por una intensificación progresiva durante el día de hoy, ya que se conoce que ERNESTO está resolviendo sus problemas con el aire seco :DDD evil
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070851
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AROUND
THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE
CYCLONE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO REPORTED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 63 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH
ERNESTO STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DRY AIR...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND
BRINGS ERNESTO TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING WHEN THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 17.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 85.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.8N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 19.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 19.4N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 19.3N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-
Cachondeo a parte, es cierto que ERNESTO está haciendo algo parecido a ayer... Es decir, parece que esos procesos de intensificación - desinflado se han hecho cíclicos, y que los de intensificación coinciden con el amanecer del día en el área que ocupa. Así, desde que le eché un vistazo esta mañana a primera hora (las 7:30), ha mejorado mucho: el borbotón convectivo adherido al LLCC ha crecido, consolidado, y expandido, tal como recoge la discusión del CNH. Pero además, las bandas exteriores también han mejorado haciéndose más evidentes y con una convección mucho más intensa.
Vamos, que se nota que ERNESTO de nuevo está cogiendo carrerilla para pegar un nuevo petardazo hoy. Veremos se logra escupir todo el aire seco de su estructura.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2491/rb0_laloern_dni5.jpg)
-
Como diría un americano: Ernesto, GO BIG OR GO HOME!
-
Ernesto sigue teniendo un núcleo pobrísimo, sin apenas calentamiento en capas altas.
En una tormenta en proceso de intensificación las anomalías deberían ser mucho más pronunciadas, por encima de 2.5
(http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/8650/201205l08070657xsect.gif)
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.46
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.18
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.03
-
Primer visible del día, no pinta tan mal.
(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/9656/vis0lalo.jpg)
-
Borbotón convectivo sobre su centro y bandas de lluvia consolidándose en el cuadrante N y E
Vamos Ernestito que tú puedes... :D1
(http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/2425/goes13102012220e9gkwo.jpg)
-
Loop de Ernesto en el dia de hoy ;)
(http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2396/sel50201208071225goes13.gif)
-
Hora de recoger tumbonas y pistas de volley de la playa en Playa del Carmen (Riviera Maya)
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/2425/goes13102012220e9gkwo.jpg)
http://webcamsdemexico.net/playacar1/live.jpg?d=1329083099501 (http://webcamsdemexico.net/playacar1/live.jpg?d=1329083099501)
-
Loop de Ernesto en el dia de hoy ;)
http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2396/sel50201208071225goes13.gif (http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2396/sel50201208071225goes13.gif)
Ufff!!!! Espectacular imagen tío!!!! :-X :-X
Justo en el centro de la tormenta se produce una potente explosión convectiva bastante profunda. Sin duda una imagen para guardar.
-
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7439/erbv_gfz3.jpg)
ERNESTO ha vuelto a pegar un buen petardazo esta tarde... Pero sin embargo, no ha conseguido ganar la organización interna que consiguió ayer, cuando formó un ojo que se veía a través de las imágenes de microondas. Por su apariencia, se atisba la presencia de outflows importantes en algunas zonas al menos exteriores del ciclón, que vienen a informar de que todavía existen parcelas de aire seco que están interfiriendo de algún modo con la organización de la convección.
Adjunto el último informe del avión cazahuracanes:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 15:18:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°15'N 85°06'W (18.25N 85.1W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the E (95°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,321m (4,334ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 43kts (From the NNW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available :'(
M. Eye Shape: Not Available :'(
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the east quadrant at 15:24:40Z
-
Radares mexicanos: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84 (http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84)
EMAS de Quintana Roo: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/ (http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/)
Buenos enlaces para seguir el impacto de ERNESTO esta noche :o>
-
Cat.1 según el recon, a ver si el NHC lo confirma.
Hurricane Ernesto- Vortex message:
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
Confirmado.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 071800
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
AND TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 18.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Cambiado el titulín ;)
-
Grandioso y precioso outflow de Ernesto.
(http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7392/178dm.jpg)
-
bueno bueno.gracias pedro por esos dos enlaces ;)me vendrán de perilla para seguir ese bicho esta noche y mañana, aunque para mi gusto no parece que vaya a tenér una organización como dios manda para ser huracán pero bueno ya veremos. :D1
-
Maravillosa vista del ojo de ERNESTO en el radar de Belize :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/24/latest_400kmpic_lqo1.gif)
-
Según el mapa de Quintana Roo, ERNESTO hará impacto por una zona próxima a la Bahía del Espíritu Santo...
-
Playa del Carmen, ahora mismo.
(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/2425/goes13102012220e9gkwo.jpg)
-
Vaya maravilla de foto,que emocion y subida de adrenalina encontrarse ahí viendo venir, ese huracán. :D1todo un lujo¡¡
-
Precioso Ernesto ahora mismo.
(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/5879/zzvisanimated.gif)
-
Pues yo tengo a la novia en Cancun ... viviendo... y no me hace ni P....Gracia....
-
Pues yo tengo a la novia en Cancun ... viviendo... y no me hace ni P....Gracia....
Tranquilo, un categoria 1, si no sale de casa, no le va a pasar nada. Tranquilizate hombre ;)
-
Ernesto se ha convertido en un huracán de tamaño monstruoso.
Hace 7 horas.
(http://i315.photobucket.com/albums/ll442/Slamguitar/Erniebefore.jpg)
Ahora.
(http://i315.photobucket.com/albums/ll442/Slamguitar/Ernieafter.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 7:25pm
Ernesto parece estar girando al SO segun traza de radar :o :o
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-32.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-40.jpg)
:O*
-
Drástico giro al OSO, estimación de trayectoria y salida al GOM se cae???
Radar a 250Km
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/j.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 10pm
El radar está mostrando un posible ERC. Algunos meteorólogos americanos indican via twitter que el sistema lo experimenta, apreciándose lo que aparenta ser el colapso del ojo:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/latest_250kmloop.gif)
El huracán aun no toca tierra a pesar que ya el cuadrante delantero está dentro de la península. Infrarroja actual:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/m-1.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11pm
tocando tierra
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/latest_250kmloop-1.gif)
-
¿Y su aspecto actual, que aún muestra ojo? :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4298/rb0_laloernf_nir8.jpg)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5123/latest_400kmpic_sor7.gif)
-
Ernesto, se supone que debes debilitarte...
(https://orfkyq.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pdNf-7wtmvu-5dtbAB0mXOa8FOuH70n-P-HlRX-YIfXkO4_NLLwx9-UmobdAZRKbxV_sZppQ-4_X_ju60d2LiQL7herN5VBWh/Ernesto%2008-08-2012.gif?psid=1)
-
Se adentra aún más en tierra y sale el visible
(http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4773/vis0.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/191/vis0.jpg/)
El nuevo aviso de NHC comenta que ERNESTO se debilita mientras se mueve por México pero siguen las fuertes lluvias
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081200
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...
-
(http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/9620/situacion.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/109/situacion.png/)
-
Hora local de Caracas 12m
Extraordinaria tormenta sobre tierra
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/vis-animated.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 12m
Extraordinaria tormenta sobre tierra
Sin duda, mantiene una estructura increíble pese a haber cruzado toda el Yucatán. El relieve plano de la zona ayuda bastante... ¿Alcanzará la cat.2 en la Bahía de Campeche?
-
Hora local de Caracas 12m
Extraordinaria tormenta sobre tierra
Sin duda, mantiene una estructura increíble pese a haber cruzado toda el Yucatán. El relieve plano de la zona ayuda bastante... ¿Alcanzará la cat.2 en la Bahía de Campeche?
Vete a saber........ El CNH es bastante conservador, aunque de su discusión se desprende la posibilidad de que se regenere con fuerza cuando toque las aguas del GOM, cosa que ya está empezando a hacer...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
ERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR
THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT. RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT
OF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE
STAYS OVER THE WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER
WATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.
AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION. THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN. THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 18.9N 93.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 10/0600Z 18.2N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 18.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Hora local de Caracas 6pm
Saliendo al GOM
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/vis-animated-1.gif)
-
hora local de Caracas 10pm
Ernesto bajo el doppler
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/rad-saba.gif)
-
Está subiendo como la espuma... pero no va a tener mucho más tiempo para reintensificarse. Quizá antes de impactar en tierra de nuevo consiga ser huracán otra vez ::)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 090848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...AROUND 0600 UTC...MEASURED
A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS..BASED ON
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 55-59 KT AND A STANDARD REDUCED MEAN BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OF 58 KT FROM A DROPWINDSONDE...THAT THESE WINDS WERE
NOT BEING EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. ERNESTO APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OR SO OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN WHICH TO
INTENSIFY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...
ERNESTO SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF MEXICO.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS
ACCELERATED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270 AT 14 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME DECELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
BEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 18.7N 93.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 17.7N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-
ERNESTO hizo su segundo landfall, iniciando una vía de debilitamiento a partir de ahí, y volviendo a dejar lluvias torrenciales en México... Merece la pena seguir su evolución mientras emerge en aguas del Pacífico, ya que la baja residual puede servir de germen para un nuevo ciclón en el EPAC :O*
000
WTNT45 KNHC 092035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL
ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND
1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...
ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT
WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.
ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Increíble su aspecto actual :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7682/vis0_lalo090812_sms3.jpg)
Aviso especial 13hr. Tormenta tropical Ernesto (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heCyuV5cCCE#ws)
-
Su aspecto es todavía impresionante... Aunque ya ha sido degradado a depresión tropical.......... Parece haberse quedado "anclada" a la orografía de México. Si tarda mucho en emerger al Pacífico, no conseguirá regenerarse en la nueva cuenca oceánica... Las lluvias torrenciales siguen sobre el país.
10/agosto/2012 Pronóstico del Tiempo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsQRcQQikaQ#ws)
-
Tenemos a ex-ERNESTO en el EPAC y con serias probabilidades de que recobre intensidad y un nuevo nombre que sería el de HECTOR... Realmente interesante :O* :O* :O* :O*
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ERNESTO...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
-
Una pequeña broma......... ;D
Soy Hector (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDXyT0kNIfw#)
¿Se convertirá HECTOR en una mala bestia?
-
Menuda convección está generando..... :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2919/rb0_lalohector_oxn7.jpg)
-
Los restos de ERNESTO han dado lugar a la depresión tropical 08E, aunque afectada por una potente cizalladura del este... Parece asegurado su intensificación para tomar el nombre de HECTOR ;)
-
HECTOR ya está aquí desde hace horas, pero influenciado por la cizalladura, por lo que no va a tener tiempo de recuperar el estatus de huracán, según los pronósticos del CNH.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120833
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME ILL-DEFINED. USING A BLEND
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT. THE RATHER SHARP EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS
IS HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS
MODEL DIAGNOSES THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENING...RESULTING IN A
REDUCTION OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME... HOWEVER...
HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.
WITH INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER VERY
PRECISELY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/10.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
AND A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS HECTOR APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH
A BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OR A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN...AND THE
MOTION SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 18.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.7N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 18.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.4N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.5N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH