Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Junio 11, 2015, 17:15:34 pm
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Ya la tenemos aquí !!
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111440
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,
with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way
around the system's center. The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt
based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with
consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently
a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer
winds overnight. Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third
tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.
Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
days. At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
substantial intensification. Given that Carlos' track now is
projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
the system. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
lower than that from the previous advisory.
Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. Shortly, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering
pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the
next couple of days. In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge
will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it
northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,
paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast. The official track
prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and
is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Landsea
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CHOouazWMAAxmhJ.png:large)
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Carlos se mantiene estacionario... lo cual puede provocar upwelling de nuevo, y que no progrese con la intensidad esperada...De hecho, la animación de imágenes IR+RGB muestra un debilitamiento de la convección...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-F4mR6Ka-sXg/VXrkqrVgw-I/AAAAAAAACsM/XGYt2ckQSss/w720-h480-no/eba.gif)
De momento se mantienen los pronósticos de que llegue a convertirse en huracán...
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120852
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several
hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate
that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were
unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt.
Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist
for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is
predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when
Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea
surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model
guidance.
The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering
currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the
past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain
weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue
to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is
expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track
parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed
little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Ya tenemos al 3er huracán de la temporada en el EPAC, y de nuevo moviéndose muy poco, y con peligro de que se debilite por culpa del upwelling ;D
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131455
TCDEP3
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.
After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.
Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.
With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mwz3b_epzy4/VXxvo9u-a5I/AAAAAAAACs8/BGr9ERidrfM/w720-h480-no/carli.gif)
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Una vez más, el fenómeno del upwelling o afloramiento de aguas frías por la estaticidad del ciclón sobre la misma área, ha provocado su debilitamiento, a la que que su interacción con las tierras de México...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CHeGtXGW8AAvfpk.png)
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A pesar de todo se espera que se recupere en las próximas horas, para ser huracán de nuevo.
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-carlos-03e-pacifico-noreste-temporada-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=28787;image)
(http://000
WTPZ43 KNHC 141450
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
The convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the
previous advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates
that the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well.
Based on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering
currents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge
should force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just
offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or
so. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours,
the cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and
could move inland. Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of
the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation
of Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global
and regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and
the official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower
than the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus
model TVCN and the FSSE model.
Sea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this
morning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled
beneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion. The
colder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow
and modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the
short term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected
to begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an
environment of light shear later today, restrengthening back
to hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday
morning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall
occurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast
period remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to
which Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and
beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity
model and the previous intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart)
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-1fuPAFPwuy8/VX2r13NH7QI/AAAAAAAACtw/mOwxUBYxNGk/w720-h480-no/dgf.gif)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Quién lo diría con lo pequeño que es... pero Carlos ha recuperado la intensidad de huracán...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-OC3R4uIH9P8/VX8af0gx7_I/AAAAAAAACvM/4wt7ehjl67Y/w720-h480-no/ca.gif)
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151751
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE
STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES