Se sigue intensificando... pero es que además cada va más despacio...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012
...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
......
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
Citando al Dr. Jeff Masters si no fuera por el bajo OHC (por fin entiendo la diferencia entre OHC y temperatura del mar!), tendría tiempo para convertirse en un Cat.5
Aún así el NHC ya le da un 12% de posibilidades de que exceda Cat.1
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 9 8 11 20 29
TROP DEPRESSION 4 11 30 16 11 14 24
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 57 59 48 35 37
HURRICANE 6 10 5 18 30 32 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 9 4 15 23 22 7
HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 3 5 7 3
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 3 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 45KT
Tema: Huracán Categoría 1 ISAAC 09L - Golfo de Méjico (Leído 9124 veces)