THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
39.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS THAT ARE CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND A
182254Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS, WITH A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 48, ADDING ADDITIONAL
VWS AND AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ACCELERATE THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM UNREASONABLY STATIONARY DESPITE THE PASSING TROUGH. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 180121Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 180130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//