Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 23, 2014, 10:37:57 am
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Hilo preparado para el seguimiento de Cristobal, si consigue nacer a partir de la 96L actual.
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Hora local de Caracas 5:15pm
Consolida el LLC sobre Great Inagua Island , Bahamas pero la convección se mantiene pobre:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/h_zps301fef6b.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/h_zps301fef6b.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/g_zpsddcfdedf.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/g_zpsddcfdedf.jpg.html)
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.8N 72.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Avisos de tormenta tropical para Bahamas Islas del centro-Sur y Turcas y Caicos
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Le ha costado nacer, por falta de Centro de Circulación de Niveles Bajos o LLCC en su acrónimo en inglés, pero ya le tenemos aquí. Se debe vigilar con atención porque será Cristobal y con probabilidad alta llegará a ser huracán...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 232048
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.
The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-iY4pDTRnaLk/U_kLVxgo8lI/AAAAAAAABJM/tLge_xttkqk/w720-h480-no/cristo.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:40pm
Continúa sumando isóbaras cerradas, indicios de que la presión continúa bajando y por ende la velocidad en los vientos sostenidos va en incremento. Cristobal en puerta:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zps432cc5bc.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zps432cc5bc.jpg.html)
La convección intenta formarse alrededor del vórtice:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zps6eca5b9b.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zps6eca5b9b.gif.html)
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Cristobal nacerá a lo largo del día de hoy... El aumento de convección resulta evidente en la animación de imágenes infrarrojas.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
200 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.6N 73.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NUTZwbItDz0/U_mWn7Q04MI/AAAAAAAABJ0/ii0bPVjsJDg/w720-h480-no/criss.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:45am
Cristobal continúa organizándose
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/y_zps70dba81d.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/y_zps70dba81d.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zpsab562c02.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zpsab562c02.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...23.6 NORTE 73.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 140 MI...205 KM AL ESTE DE LA ISLA LONG ISLAND
CERCA DE 170 MI...275 KM AL ESTE DE LA ISLA DE GREAT EXUMA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARES...29.56 PULGADAS
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS
RAGGED...AL IGUAL QUE LAS ISLAS DE TURKS Y CAICOS
* LAS ISLAS DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL...INCLUYENDO CAT ISLAND...LOS
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...Y SAN SALVADOR
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Hora local de Caracas 2:25pm
Esta siendo afectada por la cizalladura desde el N-NO, afectando la convección central y dejando al descubierto el vórtice:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpse5c21e86.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpse5c21e86.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zps1d78dd37.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zps1d78dd37.gif.html)
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Creía que el título del hilo estaba cambiado ??? ??? ??? ???
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Hora local de Caracas 9:20pm
Y te toca volverlo a cambiar Pedro ;D ;D
Alcanza la categoría de huracán CAT1, pero luciendo para la hora asimétrico por la cizalladura desde el Norte:
8:20 PM EDT Mon Aug 25
Location: 25.0°N 71.9°W
Moving: E at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/d_zps8fe0fbac.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/d_zps8fe0fbac.jpg.html)
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No podría ser un huracán más atípico ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-QGfprhtXXIk/U_xc-rm5LuI/AAAAAAAABME/jFsPqg0h1OY/w720-h480-no/cristoo.gif)
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Hora local 3pm
Se mantiene como CAT1. Esta siendo asediado por el aire seco desde el cuadrante Oeste pero mantiene convección acoplada con el vórtice, de momento:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zps3d9dd3cf.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zps3d9dd3cf.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpsc7e35cf0.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpsc7e35cf0.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:15pm
Se mantiene como CAT1 inclusive fortaleciéndose un poco, vientos de 130 km/h. No permite que el aire seco entre al vórtice, se mantiene hermético. Extiende larga vaguada al Caribe Occidental que alcanza centroamérica:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zps0c00b473.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zps0c00b473.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/y_zpsa4af0367.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/y_zpsa4af0367.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 1pm
Se mantiene como cAT1. lidiando con el aire seco
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...31.8N 72.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/4_zpsf46e3864.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/4_zpsf46e3864.jpg.html)
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Impresionante la evolución de Cristobal durante la tarde de hoy, en que ha conseguido generar un anillo convectivo muy sólido, con un ojo relativamente pequeño y limpio de nubosidad. Seguramente en esos momentos ha alcanzado su pico de intensidad.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rJ-pwymQvpE/U_96gcDdEhI/AAAAAAAABOw/kGtk6yCXHi0/w720-h480-no/cristloop.gif)
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A vista del satélite AQUA (sensor MODIS).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwKEUizIYAArEFj.jpg:large)
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Transición extratropical completa, y que se observa de forma magnífica en la animación del visible 8) 8) 8)
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-3KefZ1puPVk/VACu9L-0ifI/AAAAAAAABPc/U1hc9UlmnYw/w720-h480-no/cristote.gif)
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Ex Cristobal, ya como ciclón extratropical, y sin combinarse aún con el otro ciclón groenlandés...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwSAVzKCUAENkyf.jpg:large)