Ya tenemos a la TT Marie, y si se cumplen los pronósticos, sufrirá un Proceso de Rápida Intensificación para convertirse en huracán hoy mismo. Puede ser otro coloso.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220834
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone
was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the
center.  Since that time, the convective pattern has become
significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system
is now a 40-kt tropical storm.  Earlier microwave data indicated
that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a
precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are
favorable.  With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of
atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it
appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a
hurricane in about 24 hours.  Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the
forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant
deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches
cooler waters.  The statistical-dynamical models are also
incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category
4 hurricane in 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is roughly
between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the
guidance.  This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now
explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the
forecast period.

Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt.  A mid-level high is centered
near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending
westward into northern Mexico.  The ridge is expected to build
westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this
pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of
the forecast period.  The model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this
advisory to follow the overall model trend.

It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a
large cyclone in a few days.  The forecast wind radii have been
expanded, but additional increases may be required in future
advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Bien, como se esperaba, MARIE ha ejecutado un proceso de Rápida Intensificación, y en la última actualización del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida ya aparece como Huracán Mayor de categoría 4... :</O :</O :</O :</O

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240841
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie continues to rapidly intensify.  The eye of the hurricane has
become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold
cloud tops surround the center.  The inner core convective pattern
is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the
south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a
category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of
T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and
warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening
during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with
major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due
to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not
easily forecast.  The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a
couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture
and sea surface temperatures gradually lower.  A more rapid
weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when
Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26
degrees Celsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar
trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge.  The track
forecast is fairly straight forward.  A west-northwest to northwest
motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north
of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism.  The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has
expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.  Although Marie is expected to remain well off the
coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect
southwestern Mexico through tomorrow.  These swells, which are
likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to
spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Sencillamente, una mala bestia... Categoría 5, y desde 2010 no había otro en el EPAC...

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242031
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid
area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10
n mi wide eye.  Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt
from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the
initial intensity.  This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane
in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010.

Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection
surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not
likely.  The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the
next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from
persistence and not the environment itself.  Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU
pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making
it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next
day or so.  Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in
the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a
major hurricane through 48 hours.  After that time, the hurricane
will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to
a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical
by day 5.  This scenario is not really different from the previous
forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48
hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short
term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is
270/12 kt.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered and
insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even
northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours.  That general
trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning
north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of
the subtropical ridge.  As in the previous forecast, no significant
changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 16.0N 112.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.6N 113.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.9N 115.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 19.5N 117.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 20.7N 119.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 26.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 29.5N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

Fuerte olejae azotando las costas de Baja California Sur, Baja California y California, entre México y EEUU.... a ver si llegan videos...

Hoy desde la ISS:

Otro vídeo más, imprescindible...