Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Parungo en Julio 12, 2008, 12:39:29 pm
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Quinta Tormenta Tropical de la temporada sobre el NE del Pacífico.
1005mb, 35knots
ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
...FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 370 MILES...
600 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...12.5 N...96.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
(http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/3026/083113wsmmf4.gif)
(http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/8202/atwvsd0.jpg)
(http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2069/avnlec4.jpg)
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Sobre la discusión nº 2 que hace el NHC, la verdad que es bastante confusa y
lo deja a uno "perplejo".
Ciertamente los modelos ven una intensificación significativa
que conducirá a ELIDA a convertirse en Huracán en las próximas 48-72
hrs.
Posteriormente la presencia de aguas más frías y el aumento de la
cizalladura por el SurEste iniciarán una tendencia a su debilitamiento.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT
35 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING. BOTH
DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN
48 HOURS. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 12.5N 96.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.3N 98.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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wow!
podria decir que elida fue una sorpresa, pero en realidad es que ayer por la noche el QuickSCAT ya mostraba que desarrollaba vientos de 35 kts aunque muy en el centro.
El modelo GFDL decia que se intensificaria a Tormenta Tropical y me alegra que lo haya hecho, respecto a lo del huracan se tendra que ver, segun veia Eliuda puede soltar algunas rachas sobre el pacfico mexicano...
POR CIERTO QUE YO VOY AL GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC POR LA NOCHE A VER UQE NOS DEPARA ELIDA....
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Se ve un poco rasgada por la cizalladura. Sin emvargo, mantiene los 40 kts ;D
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40kts - 1002mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1926668114.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1926668114.html)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/3954/dlm1elidanj7.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/3954/dlm1elidanj7.df71b31d27.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=152&i=dlm1elidanj7.gif)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/179/intensityearly1elidafd8.png) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/179/intensityearly1elidafd8.77b83cf0c8.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=152&i=intensityearly1elidafd8.png)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/4584/trackearly1elidato1.png) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/4584/trackearly1elidato1.f4624e6b3a.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=152&i=trackearly1elidato1.png)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/8887/trackgfs1elidatq7.png) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/8887/trackgfs1elidatq7.081c334886.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=329&i=trackgfs1elidatq7.png)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/1226/splitwelidaui5.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/1226/splitwelidaui5.205ef334e8.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=329&i=splitwelidaui5.jpg)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/6230/wg9shrelidary7.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/6230/wg9shrelidary7.74c93eb8fd.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=329&i=wg9shrelidary7.gif)
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55 KT para ELIDA, que en la imagen de microondas ya empieza a mostrar una estructura a modo de ojo...
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Era cuestión de horas...............
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 140846
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
...ELIDA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES
...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...108.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
Parece, viendo los pronósticos, que su vida será corta........... No más allá de 4-5 días.................
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Parece que se está formando el ojo pero que se encuentra cubierto
debajo de la densa masa nubosa...
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED
TO 4.0 AND A RECENT AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED
BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
(http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/1313/avnyw1.jpg)
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Sera que se igual de persistente que boris? desafiara los pronosticos? Por cierto, ya lleva 70 kts de vientos sostenidos! Ojala y llegue a la categoria 2 (:O*)
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75kts-981mb
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Ya muestra ojo. Tardara unos 2 dias como huracan para luego empezar a morir.
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Ahí sigue nuestra amiga.................... :P
Dando vueltas en medio del océano...
Vida según el archivo de Wunderground:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
05 GMT 07/12/08 12.3N 96.3W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 07/12/08 12.5N 96.7W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/12/08 13.2N 98.5W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/12/08 13.5N 100.4W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/13/08 14.4N 101.5W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/13/08 14.8N 103.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/13/08 15.2N 104.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/13/08 15.6N 105.3W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/14/08 15.5N 106.8W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/14/08 16.2N 108.2W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 07/14/08 15.9N 109.1W 80 984 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/14/08 15.8N 109.7W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 07/15/08 16.0N 110.6W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 07/15/08 16.2N 111.3W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 07/15/08 16.4N 112.3W 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
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:O*
(http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/7286/sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/7286/sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.ad27515280.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=254&i=sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.jpg)
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(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/temporada%20atl%202008/elidamultisensor.jpg)
Ya se puede poner farruco el NHC, que ELIDA sigue al pie del cañón ;D
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ELIDA categoría 2??????????
El Navy cifra vientos de 90kt :-X :-X
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/temporada%20atl%202008/elidavisible-1.jpg)
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Mmmmm, ELIDA anular?
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/temporada%20atl%202008/elidaanular.jpg)
Pintejas de anular está adquirendo ::)
P.D.: Q cohones pasa hoy en los trópicos?Alguien ha pulsado el botón del superturbo y yo no me enteré o que.... ;D
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Mmmmm, ELIDA anular?
Pintejas de anular está adquirendo ::)
Si es que no lo ha sido ya, y Gale que se le ha pasado:
:O*
(http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/7286/sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/7286/sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.ad27515280.jpg) (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=254&i=sm200807161730goes11xvitf4.jpg)
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Pongo este enlace para ver el huracan ELIDA en movimiento no estoy muy ducho en estos temas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html)
SALUDOS
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Vida en el archivo de Wunderground:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
05 GMT 07/12/08 12.3N 96.3W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 07/12/08 12.5N 96.7W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/12/08 13.2N 98.5W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/12/08 13.5N 100.4W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/13/08 14.4N 101.5W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/13/08 14.8N 103.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/13/08 15.2N 104.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/13/08 15.6N 105.3W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/14/08 15.5N 106.8W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/14/08 16.2N 108.2W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 07/14/08 15.9N 109.1W 80 984 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/14/08 15.8N 109.7W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 07/15/08 16.0N 110.6W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 07/15/08 16.2N 111.3W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 07/15/08 16.4N 112.3W 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/15/08 16.5N 113.3W 75 986 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 07/16/08 16.4N 114.2W 75 986 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 07/16/08 16.5N 115.5W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 07/16/08 16.7N 116.8W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/16/08 17.0N 117.8W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 07/17/08 17.3N 119.0W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 07/17/08 17.5N 120.7W 100 974 Category 2 Hurricane
(http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/2844/elidacat2fr2.jpg)
No sé yo si la categoría 2 no es excesiva para este ciclón......................
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Yo si le veo intesidad de categoria 2, ayer presentaba un ojo claron y un muy bien marcado giro ciclonico :D1
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Ya es tormenta Tropical. Parece que llegara a las Islas Hawai como Depresion Tropical :DDD Sinceramente no creo que llegue, ya vieron que paso con Boris, estaba relativamente cerca de Hawai como Huracan. Despues solo recorrio unos pocos kilometros y se desintegro rapidamente. Asi que tendremos que esperar a ver que pasa