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Autor Tema: Intense Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)  (Leído 2563 veces)

Desconectado Crostorm

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Intense Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)
« en: Febrero 06, 2009, 13:31:30 pm »




347
WTIO30 FMEE 060638
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 53.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 300   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 250
50 KT       NE: 050   SE: 070   SO: 070   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.2S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

72H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 26.1S/53.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-

GAEL SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN WITH STILL A RAGGED EYE OVER THE LAST EIR
IMAGERY.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.

MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 270/8KT

ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
 DIVERGENCE IS LIMITED.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
 IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
 HIGH LEVEL RIDGE (DUE TO A MID LAT TROUGH) SHOULD RECURVE THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING: BETTER TRADES INFLOW,
HIGH SST, PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TROUGH.

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A LONG
 TIME.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOLER SST SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND.

« Última modificación: Febrero 07, 2009, 10:55:36 am por Crostorm »

Desconectado Crostorm

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Re: Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)
« Respuesta #1 en: Febrero 06, 2009, 13:49:31 pm »
657
WTIO30 FMEE 061246

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 52.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 /D  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM


6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 300   SE: 300   SO: 300   NO: 280
50 KT       NE: 070   SE: 070   SO: 090   NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 27.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-

GAEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR GIVE AN AVERAGE
T-NUMBER OF 5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS

MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 250/6KT

ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE
NEXT
 24 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN
THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH  TOMORROW, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A
LONG
 TIME.=

Desconectado Crostorm

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Re: Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)
« Respuesta #2 en: Febrero 06, 2009, 22:09:23 pm »
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  06 FEB 2009    Time :   200000 UTC
      Lat :   19:12:33 S     Lon :   52:01:10 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.4 / 945.1mb/ 99.6kt


     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                5.4     5.9     6.9

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +1.5mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

 Center Temp :  +4.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN       
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

****************************************************

Desconectado Crostorm

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  • Mensajes: 9
Re: Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)
« Respuesta #3 en: Febrero 06, 2009, 22:14:05 pm »

Desconectado Crostorm

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  • Mensajes: 9
Re: Intense Ciclón Tropical Gael- O. Índico (Madagascar)
« Respuesta #4 en: Febrero 07, 2009, 10:57:59 am »





 



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