Siguen las sorpresas... Huracanes antinaturales  evil

Discusión del National Hurricane Center, del NOAA:

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH
LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY
INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT
EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY...
ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD
OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON
MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW. 

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 34.5N  43.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 34.5N  41.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 34.5N  38.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 34.5N  36.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N  33.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  34.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

Podrias traducir algo Pedro?

En pocas palabras...que esta en un entorno no favorable. Por los vientos de la zona y la temperatura del agua

Pero resiste.. que año mas anormal de verdad

Más madera de epsilon y algo de zeta..........
Imagen de epsilon con 987 mb.


Un comentario que he leido por esos blogs del mundo 

Epsilon has been upgraded to a 75-mph hurricane, only the 6th December hurricane ever recorded. Epsilon joins the ranks of Hurricane Nichole (1998), Hurricane Lili (1984), Hurricane Alice (1954), an unnamed 1925 storm, and an unnamed hurricane from 1887 as the only December hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic. Epsilon's location is the second farthest north and east of any December hurricane (next to Nicole of 1998), and marks the record 14th hurricane to form in the Atlantic this year. The previous record was 12 hurricanes, set in 1969.

Epsilon is apparently traversing a very narrow ribbon of relatively warm ocean waters of 75 - 77 F (22-23C), which has allowed its intensification. Water temperatures across the entire North Atlantic are still unusually high, averaging about 2 F higher than normal. Very cool waters of about 70 F (21 C) lie just 200 miles from Epsilon, so its intensification to hurricane status is likely short-lived. By Saturday night, cold waters and increasing wind shear should put an end to Epsilon's life--and perhaps the Hurricane Season of 2005.

Long range computer models are forecasting somewhat favorable conditions for tropical storm formation to return next week to the Caribbean Sea, and last through mid-December. I expect there is at least a 40% chance that Tropical Storm Zeta will appear in the Caribbean by the middle of the month.

Si zeta aparece para mediados de mes, juas juas 
Jur jur, se le entiende todo, si alguien no lo entiende que pregunte , pero es muy interesante este texto 

Discusión #21 del National Hurricane Center del NOAA. Por lo que describen en ella, el profesional que confecciona la discusión sigue "flipando" con el desarrollo de los acontecimientos respecto de la evolución de EPSILON. Fijaros en lo que resalto en negrilla:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 041440
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 34.3N  39.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 34.3N  37.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  35.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  33.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  39.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N  44.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

Después, supone que el debilitamiento deberá producirse, por ubicarse en aguas más frías (no lo creo si se mueve hacia el S y luego SW), con mayor cizalladura del viento y aire más seco

Vaya camino que va a tomar epsilon??? 


Por cierto que se ha profundizado rapidamente, de nuevo es huracan categoria 1 y sus vientos han subido bastante de fuerza..
Name: Hurricane EPSILON
Date: 12-04-05
Updated: 09:42:19 AM
Next Update: 4:00 PM

             Wind                     Central
Advisory                           (in MPH)   Direction of    Pressure
Number   Date/Time  Position     Speed  Gust  Movement (MPH)  (in mb)   Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1        29/1500Z   31.6N/50.4W    45   60      W      8        993     TropSt
2        29/2100Z   31.4N/51.2W    50   65      W      8        993     TropSt
3        30/0300Z   31.4N/51.9W    50   65      W      8        993     TropSt
4        30/0900Z   31.2N/52.5W    50   65      W      7        993     TropSt
5        30/1500Z   30.7N/53.9W    65   70      W      9        993     TropSt
6        30/2100Z   29.8N/54.2W    70   85      S      7        990     TropSt
7        01/0300Z   29.6N/53.4W    70   85      SE     6        990     TropSt
8        01/0900Z   30.2N/52.1W    65   75      ENE    12       994     TropSt
9        01/1500Z   31.2N/51.6W    65   75      NE     10       994     TropSt
10       01/2100Z   31.7N/51.0W    70   85      NE     10       991     TropSt
11       02/0300Z   32.2N/50.2W    65   75      NE     9        992     TropSt
12       02/0900Z   32.8N/49.4W    65   75      NE     10       992     TropSt
13       02/1500Z   33.7N/48.2W    75   90      NE     14       987     Hrricn
14       02/2100Z   34.2N/47.4W    75   90      NE     12       987     Hrricn
15       03/0300Z   34.5N/46.6W    75   90      NE     10       987     Hrricn
16       03/0900Z   34.6N/45.7W    75   90      ENE    9        987     Hrricn
17       03/1500Z   34.5N/44.4W    75   90      E      12       987     Hrricn
18       03/2100Z   34.5N/43.1W    80   100     E      12       985     Hrricn
19       04/0300Z   34.3N/41.6W    75   90      E      13       987     Hrricn
20       04/0900Z   34.3N/40.4W    70   85      E      13       990     TropSt
21       04/1500Z   34.3N/39.2W    85   105     E      15       979     Hrricn

Lo flipo! vientos sostenidos de 137 km/h y rachas de 170 km/h , casi categoria 2

Ta bonito a que si, por eso...

Que espectacular... sorprendente casi categoria 2 ... una pena ese giro de casi 180 º