Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Julio 31, 2011, 12:10:51 pm
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Tenemos a la quinta depresión de la cuenca. De aquí puede salir un posible cat.1-2
05E.FIVE.30kts.1006mb.10.6N.99.8W
(http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/3756/201107310915goes13ir05e.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/201107310915goes13ir05e.jpg/)
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Trayectoria
(http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/8469/ep201105model.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/818/ep201105model.gif/)
Modelo de intensidad. GFDL es optimista 8)
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/8413/ep201105modelintensity.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/199/ep201105modelintensity.gif/)
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Tenemos a TS EUGENE 8)
...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
05E.FIVE.35kts.1004mb.10.9N.100.2W
(http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/1047/visn.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/215/visn.jpg/)
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CATEGORÍA 1
Qué belleza la animación de cómo se forma :o
Animación EUGENE (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/main.html)
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05E.EUGENE.75kts-985mb-135N-1076W
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9756/ir4b.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/199/ir4b.jpg/)
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Eugene y Emily ponen en alerta a todo el Caribe
El huracán Eugene, con vientos sostenidos de 120 kilómetros por hora y tendencia a fortalecerse, está a unos 660 kilómetros al suroeste de Zihuatanejo, una localidad turística y pesquera de Guerrero, en México.
Las autoridades mexicanas declararon una alerta preventiva por lluvias para los estados de Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco. Eugene se desplaza en dirección oeste-noroeste, adentrándose aún más en el mar, con una velocidad de 20 kilómetros por hora.
http://america.infobae.com/notas/30497-Eugene-y-Emily-ponen-en-alerta-a-todo-el-Caribe
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Eugene ya es un major... CATEGORÍA 3
WTPZ35 KNHC 030232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
...EUGENE REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.7N 111.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. EUGENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL
REMAIN NO THREAT TO LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EUGENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS EUGENE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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NONE
Ya he cambiado el título del topic :)
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En el aviso número 13 no hay nada nuevo; siguen los mismos vientos sotenidos de 185 km/h por lo que sihue manteniendo la Categoría 3 en la escala Saffir-Simpson. Indica que aún se puede fortalecer un poquito hoy para empezar a debilitarse a partir de esta tarde-noche al entrar en aguas más frías, ya que el movimiento del sistema es WNW. El aviso, en inglés:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011
...EUGENE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.2N 113.0W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. EUGENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL
REMAIN NO THREAT TO LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EUGENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH A
WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS EUGENE MOVES
OVER COLDER WATER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
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Historial de EUGENE. Se mantiene como categoría 3 y menos mal que no está muy cerca de tierra :-X
Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
07/31 9 GMT 10.70 -100.20 35 1006 Tropical Depression
07/31 15 GMT 11.00 -100.50 40 1004 Tropical Storm
07/31 21 GMT 11.00 -101.10 45 1002 Tropical Storm
08/01 3 GMT 11.30 -102.30 45 1002 Tropical Storm
08/01 9 GMT 11.60 -103.20 60 1001 Tropical Storm
08/01 15 GMT 12.30 -103.90 65 997 Tropical Storm
08/01 21 GMT 12.90 -105.20 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
08/02 3 GMT 13.20 -106.80 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
08/02 9 GMT 13.80 -108.30 90 978 Category 1 Hurricane
08/02 15 GMT 14.00 -109.60 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
08/02 21 GMT 14.20 -110.60 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
08/03 3 GMT 14.70 -111.80 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane
(http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/9002/ep201105sat.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/ep201105sat.jpg/)
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Se aleja ‘Eugene’ de costas mexicanas
El huracán “Eugene” siguió alejándose ayer de las costas mexicanas del Pacífico y no constituye una amenaza, aunque todavía ganará fuerza en el mar, informó el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN).
MÉXICO, D.F.- El huracán de categoría 2, con vientos sostenidos de 165 kilómetros por hora y rachas con velocidades más altas, se ubica unos 855 kilómetros al suroeste de Manzanillo y 505 kilómetros al sur de Isla Socorro.
“‘Eugene’ mantendrá su desplazamiento actual durante las próximas 24 a 48 horas alejándose gradualmente del país, al tiempo que podría intensificar la fuerza de sus vientos”, señaló el organismo meteorológico
http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/sealejaeugenedecostasmexicanas-1060255.html
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Eugene desde el espacio. Captada por el satélite GOES. Animación gracias al NOAA. (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/satimg/GOES-West.mp4)
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Aunque EUGENE esté en cat.3, DVORAK da rachas de un cat.4 ::)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2011 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:41:13 N Lon : 114:55:49 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.0mb/122.2kt
Moviéndose en aguas de 29ºC, se irá metiendo en aguas más frías. Winshear algo desfavorable
SST + Windshear
(http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7714/sst.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/838/sst.png/)
8)
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Aunque EUGENE esté en cat.3, DVORAK da rachas de un cat.4 ::)
"Habemus" cat.4 8)
115kts.947mb.15.8N.114.8W
TSR da vientos de 120 kts
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/350/201108032030goes11vis1k.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/201108032030goes11vis1k.jpg/)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHC
...EUGENE REACHES CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. EUGENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EUGENE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
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En alta resolución :D
(http://i54.tinypic.com/23rx0t2.jpg)
Imagen:NOAA (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/satimg/GWRVISIR.JPG)
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EUGENE baja a categoría 3 y se va metiendo en aguas más frías
05E.EUGENE.110kts.954mb.16.5N.117.2W
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/3633/ir4z.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/641/ir4z.jpg/)
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Fijáos qué maravilla de imagen de EUGENE, en alta resolución, por el satélite AQUA. Fijáos en el ojo, albergando dos vórtices diferenciados 8) IMPRESIONANTE.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8164/eugene_iry7.jpg)
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Eugene.A2011215.2110.500m.jpg
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Preciosa 8)
EUGENE se encuentra ya muy desmejorado a estas horas. :P
40kts.1004mb.18.7N.126.5W
(http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/3086/avnv.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/88/avnv.jpg/)
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Menos mal que este no toco tierra porque uno de categoria 4 te la lia parda en nada.