Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 30, 2015, 10:54:10 am
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Pues recién salido del horno el primer aviso sobre FRED... Cruzará las Cabo Verde. En teoría, no deberá ser un ciclón muy duradero, ni se espera oficialmente pronto recurve...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve this early morning with the development of a small CDO
feature and a tightly curved band in the western and southern
quadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image further
indicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around a
primitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to
35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and
this intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/S
satellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic
tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database.
The initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to move
northwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape Verde
Islands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospheric
trough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by the
global and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36
hours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fred
on a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. The
latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous
forecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCA
consensus model solutions.
Fred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanic
conditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical wind
shear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70
percent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The main
inhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone
after 24 hours. However, there should still be enough available
instability to support deep convection that will allow at least
steady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could still
reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape
Verde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterly
vertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone while
Fred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditions
should combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 12.4N 18.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.4N 20.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 14.6N 22.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 23.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.0N 25.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 18.5N 29.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 19.2N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.8N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29183;image)
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Tal como están indicando en las RRSS, es muy raro que una tormenta tropical se forme tan cerca de las costas africanas, aunque no es un hecho excepcional ni mucho menos.
Brenden Moses
Tropical Storm Fred has formed incredibly close to the African coastline, something that very rarely happens in the Atlantic basin. But just how unusual is it? I took a run through HURDAT and put together a list of storms that formed east of 20W. I have not included tropical depressions that did not reach gale strength at some point in their life, as the non-developing database is subject to a lot of error and misrepresented systems (i.e. depressions that were really just waves). For argument's sake, I've included when systems became both a TD and a TS.
From what I've found, Fred is tied as the second-easternmost tropical storm on record, alongside unnamed storms in 1900 and 1988 (18.5W). The easternmost tropical storm on record was Ginger in 1967, reaching 18.1W. The easternmost tropical depression (that later became a tropical storm) was Christine in 1973, forming overland at 14.0W. This will likely be removed from the database once the reanalysis reaches this storm as it goes against the definition of a tropical cyclone (though it may very well have had a closed low over land).
Keep in mind that prior to the satellite era (which started in the 1960s), records out over the open Atlantic and near Africa are very questionable.
2015: Tropical Storm Fred (TD at 17.7W, TS at 18.5W)
2000: Hurricane Alberto (TD at 18.0W, TS at 20.1W)
1999: Hurricane Cindy (TD at 18.9W, TS at 26.6W)
1998: Hurricane Jeanne (TD at 17.4W, TS at 19.4W)
1988: Unnamed Tropical Storm (TD at 17.5W, TS at 18.5W)
1987: Tropical Storm Dennis (TD at 18.4W, TS at 25.0W)
1980: Hurricane Frances (TD at 19.0W, TS at 21.8W)
1973: Tropical Storm Christine (TD at 14.0W, TS at 30.0W)
1967: Tropical Storm Ginger (TD at 18.3W, TS at 18.1W)
1964: Hurricane Dora (tentative reanalysis by myself: TD at 17.0W, TS at 41.9W)
1964: Tropical Storm Florence (tentative reanalysis by myself: TD at 18.0W, TS at 22.4W)
1962: Tropical Storm Becky (TD at 18.8W, TS at 23.3W)
1961: Hurricane Debbie (tentative reanalysis by Sandy: TD at 17.7W, TS at 22.0W)
1952: Hurricane Able (TD at 19.0W, TS at 55.8W)
1938: Great New England hurricane (TD at 19.4W, TS at 23.0W)
1928: Okeechobee/San Felipe Segundo hurricane (TD at 17.0W, TS at 20.0W)
1923: Unnamed Tropical Storm 3 (TD at 19.4W, TS at 20.0W)
1900: Unnamed Hurricane 3 (TS at 18.5W)
1892: Unnamed Hurricane 5 (TS at 19.5W)
(https://scontent-mad1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10690341_10207844575371861_5696753761306646720_n.jpg?oh=00af0b7dc936bae24df829230bb13e09&oe=5682D892)
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Fred sigue fortaleciéndose... tanto que se contempla como posibilidad que se convierta en huracán antes de llegar a Cabo Verde, algo inusual...
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29187;image)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301450
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated
with the tropical cyclone continues to organize. A curved band of
convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent
images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier
WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on
these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.
The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening
during the next 24 to 36 hours. During that time, there will
be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain
low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures
of 27 to 28C. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and
the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within
24 hours. Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through
the Cape Verde Islands. After 36 hours, lower sea surface
temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable
environment should cause weakening.
Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is
forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical
ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands. In a couple of days,
the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to
turn west-northwestward. As Fred weakens and become a more shallow
cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected. The NHC track is near the consensus of the
ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours. Later in the period, the NHC
forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track
is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with
the ECMWF.
Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological
Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
for those islands.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Y la última imagen visible es, sencillamente, impresionante... :o :o :o La organización paulatina que muestra FRED es bestial para estar tan cerca aún de la costa africana...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNqqjZAWoAAnce6.png:large)
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Más datos de interés (flipante, porque estamos en época de El Niño y nada destacable debería de pasar...)...
Eric Blake
@EricBlake12
#Fred has prompted a #hurricane warning for the #CapeVerde Islands-- believe it is the 1st on record there!
Este meteorólogo indica creer que es la primera vez que se activa un aviso de huracán en las Cabo Verde... Evidentemente, desde que se tiene registros ::)
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La evolución de Fred en las útimas horas está siendo ridículamente increíble... Veremos si Cabo Verde no sufrirá en envite de un huracán similar a Danny por pequeño e intenso. Es increíble... Seguimientos de los buenos, de los que apasionan!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNqwKYxWgAAWK9w.png:large)
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si eso atravesara Canarias nos volveríamos todos locos....y menudos destrozos haría....
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Vamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. :-\
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Vamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. :-\
nubosidad alta garantizada y media tal vez...
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según el wunderground será huracán cat1 mañana a mediodía con vientos de 121kmh y 145kmh de racha máxima
(http://i62.tinypic.com/2mea0t5.jpg)
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Vamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. :-\
nubosidad alta garantizada y media tal vez...
Algo más que eso. ;D
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Vamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. :-\
nubosidad alta garantizada y media tal vez...
Algo más que eso. ;D
la verdad es que dudo que nos envie algo....
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Ojito. Según el NHC, Fred se convertirá en huracán SOBRE LAS ISLAS CABO VERDE esta noche, parece que seguirá dirección ONO así que con suerte podríamos tener algo en Canarias (aunque mínimo)
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El CNH refrenda el progresivo fortalecimiento de FRED que podría llegar a ser un huracán durante esta próxima madrugada, lo cual sería le leche, la verdad...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 302035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A new burst of
deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming
more symmetric. Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also
reveal increased banding in all quadrants. AMSR-2 and GCOM
microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues
to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in
the 37 GHz imagery. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,
which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from
TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.
Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized
by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient
mid-level moisture during the next day or so. Therefore, additional
strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to
become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. This is supported by
the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to
hurricane status. In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone
will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing
southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more
stable air mass. This should result in weakening throughout the
remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens
Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h.
Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial
motion estimate is 310/14 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains
unchanged from before. The cyclone should move northwestward toward
a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so. In a
couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge
rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and
central Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast is a little north
of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement
with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.6N 22.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 18.2N 26.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.2N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 20.6N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 21.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 22.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Comentaba en Twitter que hay alguna posibilidad de que los flujos de viento desgarren nubosidad de Fred y que llegue a las Canarias, a modo de evento PRE, pero de momento es eso... posibilidad. A ver qué hace...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNsDNr1WsAAQSUq.png:large)
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Pues ya es huracán y se comenta que es el que más al este se ha formado desde que se tienen registros, aunque no lo tengo nada claro, por el precedente de Debbie de 1961, que casi era huracán estando en tierra...
000
WTNT31 KNHC 310554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
200 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015
...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE EASTERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 310240
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and
microwave data show a well-defined inner core. Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the
past several hours, however. The current intensity estimate is 60
kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from
UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical
cyclone. The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so,
and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that
the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred. Given
these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane overnight. By 36 hours, vertical shear
is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should
be underway by that time. Late in the forecast period, model
guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with
the shear remaining strong. This should result in the cyclone
degenerating to a depression by the end of the period. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is
the same as the previous one.
Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show that Fred
continues on its northwestward trek. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged from the previous package. For the next few days,
a weakening mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic
should result in the tropical cyclone continuing northwestward with
decreasing forward speed. Late in the forecast period, the ridge
builds westward a bit and this, along with the weakening cyclone
responding more to the lower-level flow, is likely to result in a
turn to the left with time. The official track forecast is close to
a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and lies on the southern
side of the guidance suite. This is basically an update of the
previous NHC track prediction.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 15.3N 22.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 16.2N 23.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.5N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 18.8N 27.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 19.6N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 20.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29207;image)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Lo están comentando numerosos meteorólogos, Fred se convierte en el huracán formado más al este desde que se tienen registros...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNud2pnWoAA9paS.png:large)
Por otro lado, espectacular la otra onda tropical que viene por África, en latitudes muy bajas. Quizás alimentada por moverse sobre tierras muy húmedas al ir tan baja de latitud...
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Posibles trayectorias de fred
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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No tengo muy claro el rumbo que seguirá el #HuracanFred. Flujos 700-850 hPa y previsión miembros GFS
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNu7mQCWEAAaF1Q.png:large)
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Mientras tanto, no viene mal echarle un vistazo a la situación meteorológica en Cabo Verde.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/v5yi48.jpg) Aparte del mal oleaje, como podemos apreciar, también llueve. :-X
(http://i58.tinypic.com/mrpens.jpg) ¡Donde ha ido a parar esos barcos, viento fuerte! :o
PD: Que mal lo tendrán que pasar en las próximas horas, a veces nosotros pedimos cosas así, pero después al llegar nos arrepentimos, pues ya hay desaparecidos y también bastante mal tiempo. :-\
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Es muy difícil que un ciclón de las Cabo Verde recurve para irse directo a Canarias... Sería algo excepcional, por lo que es poco probable que ocurra, salvo que el Cambio Climático lo favorezca en años venideros...
Llevo muchos años mirando trayectorias de ciclones tropicales y no he encontrado ni uno que hiciese eso, salvo Delta, y tuvo origen en una baja presión no tropical que transicionó a tropical, como otros cuantos casos que ocurrieron durante aquellos meses de octubre y noviembre de 2005 ;)
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imagen del Terra modis, recién salida del horno :o
(http://i61.tinypic.com/rh36np.jpg)
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A pesar de los logros conseguidos por FRED, no le auguro mucha supervivencia... esa misma imagen delata la presencia de masas de aire estables en su trayectoria con aguas cada vez más frías. Si tuviéramos por delante otras perspectivas atmosféricas, hablaríamos de otra cosa pero la realidad es la que es, jejeje.............. Estos bichos son muy destructivos, pero a su vez, muy delicados y en cuanto les fastidias el manto de algodones, se vienen abajo...
Creo además que hay oportunidades para que se desvíe de lo previsto y recurve antes, según el efecto imán de la vaguada que tiene encima... si no lo desvía pronto, quizás se pierdan oportunidades...
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Aunque no de forma totalmente directa, ya está llegando a Canarias nubosidad que tiene relación con FRED ;)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNwEfvFXAAEKpC4.png:large)
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NortheastWeatherWx
@NEWeatherWx
Waves are pounding Ilha de Sal via #HurricaneFred.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNwJBuIWEAAm6lD.jpg:large)
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Citar picazoeltiempo
Hoy lunes 31 de agosto de 2015, estamos ante un acontecimiento meteorológico que no se ha producido desde que hay registros (1851) climatológicos de los huracanes que han afectado la zona. Si los modelos de predicción no cambian de idea, a lo largo del día, la tormenta tropical Fred, se convertirá en el segundo huracán de la temporada después de Danny, pero en esta ocasión lo hará mientras atraviesa las Islas Cabo Verde con fuertes vientos e intensas precipitaciones. Tan solo en dos ocasiones anteriores se han formado huracanes cerca de las islas. Uno sin nombre en 1892, y el huracán Jeanne que se formo al sur del archipiélago en 1998. Ahora sin embargo, a parte de las condiciones atmosféricas favorables, Fred cuenta con un importante aliado, la temperatura del agua de la superficie del océano, que está 3 a 4 grados por encima de lo habitual ayudando y mucho a que la tormenta se alimente de una gran cantidad de energía rápidamente.
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Como era de esperar, en el momento que se le está cortando el suministro de humedad desde la ZCIT y la entrada de aire seco, está haciendo mella en el ciclón...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 312041
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
Fred likely peaked in intensity this morning. Microwave data
received since the previous advisory shows that the eye has become
open over the southern semicircle, however, the center remains
embedded in an area of cloud top temperatures below -70C. Although
Dvorak T-numbers have changed little since the previous advisory,
the initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt, based on the
degraded inner-core structure. The environment ahead of Fred is
expected to become increasingly hostile with marginal sea surface
temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions. As a result, steady weakening is
predicted. Since Fred is a small tropical cyclone, it is likely to
succumb to the shear faster than indicated by the statistical
guidance, and the NHC forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS/LGEM
models. Despite warmer SSTs along the forecast track at days 4 and
5, the shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Fred to
become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt. The center of Fred
will pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through
early tonight. A turn toward the west-northwestward is expected on
Tuesday as the subtropical ridge to the north of Fred builds
westward. A west-northwestward heading should then continue during
the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models
remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the NHC
forecast is near a consensus of these typically reliable models.
The NHC forecast at the long-range leans a bit closer to the ECMWF,
which shows a weaker Fred moving more westward.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 17.2N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 25.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 19.2N 27.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 20.8N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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zenaida machado @zenaidamz 3 hHace 3 horas
More pictures of the Hurricane #Fred as it hits #CapeVerde islands. (Photos of Edson Oliveira)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNwWNjTWEAIYDge.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNwWNmzWwAAnNs9.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNwWNXcWwAAHumQ.jpg)
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(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ICgACveyHgj_vdOTuE7DEWPD5iJYRc_nnR6Y4DuLtZRj=w1026-h684-no)
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Tal como se esperaba, Fred ya ha dado de sí todo lo que podía dar y desde última hora entró en decadencia... Sigue esa tendencia y en pocos días habrá desaparecido.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 010553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
200 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
...FRED WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 25.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Fred se ha degradado a tormenta tropical y es previsible que siga haciéndolo a medida que suba de latitud pues ademaa de la falta de humedad que comenta gale, hay que sumar la alta cizalladura a la que esta sometido por esa zona y a la temperatura del agua del mar mas baja
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/09/01/85843f36b94e828a9a8464c991db21cf.jpg)
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Se debilita, pero aun mantiene una organización decente...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
After a brief convective hiatus between about 0000-0200 UTC, deep
convection has redeveloped over the center of Fred and also in the
northern semicircle. Several passive microwave satellite images
indicate that Fred's low-level center is a little south of the
previous advisory track, due to southerly vertical wind shear
displacing most of the convection to the north of the center.
However, that same imagery also indicated that Fred still has a
low-level circulation that is quite robust, including a nearly
closed 20 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based
on a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt
from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.
The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt based on microwave fixes.
Fred is expected to move between west-northwest and northwest for
the next 72 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone
gradually builds westward. After that time, a turn toward the
north-northwest and north is forecast due to a deep-layer trough
currently over eastern Canada that is expected to dig southeastward
over the central Atlantic and erode the ridge. The NHC model
guidance is in decent agreement on this developing pattern change.
However, there are significant differences in the model solutions
with the HWRF, GFS, and GFDL models keeping Fred stronger and
making the northward turn sooner, whereas the weaker solution
models like the UKMET and ECMWF take a weaker and more vertically
shallow cyclone farther west before turning it northward.
The official forecast track is a little south of the previous
advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position,
and follows a blend of the weaker UKMET and ECMWF solutions.
Fred is expected to gradually weaken throughout the forecast
period as the cyclone moves into an environment of increasing
southwesterly vertical wind in excess of 20 kt and drier and
more stable air, and over SSTs of near 26 deg C. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, as well as
the consensus model IVCN.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 18.0N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.8N 27.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 19.7N 29.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 20.3N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 21.0N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 22.3N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 26.0N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Pasillo por el que puede escapar de la RDP hacia el Atlántico Central...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN0I_bQWUAA0PTD.png:large)
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Según el NHC en las próximas 48 horas fred se degradara a depresión tropical debido sobre todo a la zona donde se dirige con condiciones muy desvaforables para su desarrollo: alta cizalladura (40 kt), aire seco y una temperatura del agua del mar muy baja. Vamos que va camino de autoliquidarse.
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Una fuerte cizalladura de 40 KT ha provocado que FRED se quede sin convección profunda. De momento todavía soporta una buena circulación en niveles bajos con convección discreta, pero esto hará que se debilite progresivamente...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-lTc7U4U7Zxg/VebdbNjLj4I/AAAAAAAADZY/zlqFfIepvwU/w720-h480-no/fdgn.gif)
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BWS - Bermuda Weather Service
Tropical Storm Fred, once a Hurricane that made a rare impact on the Cape Verde Islands, is now facing an increasingly hostile environment as it continues to move west, then northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. TS Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in the next day or so, and then become post-tropical/remnant low not long after. This is because it is encountering increasingly strong westerly wind shear (20-30 knots), large areas or dry air associated with Saharan dust (aka SAL or the Saharan Air Layer), and decreasing sea surface temperatures. The image from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) below shows an infra-red satellite image with additional layers of Saharan dust in yellow/orange and wind shear speed contours in yellow with associated directional contours in white.
(https://scontent-mad1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/11949385_498516396977926_711647338661315107_n.png?oh=1c3ae25b355b2e7bf385cdb956e270b2&oe=567ACFFD)
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Hora local de Caracas 7:40pm
Ya como tormenta tropical parece oscilar en intensidad, se aprecia borbotón convectivo tratando de acoplarse con el LLC:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/x_1.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/x_1.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/y_1.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/y_1.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.3 NORTE 31.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 590 MI...950 KM AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARES...29.71 PULGADAS
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Pues ahí sigue... como tormenta tropical todavía sorprendentemente! Con su bandera convectiva todavía ondeando. Y por experiencia con otros ciclones tropicales, subtropicales o híbridos de similares características, y si la cizalladura no aumenta, podría sobrevivir en este estado más de lo que anuncian los pronósticos.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN93S7WWwAA-0ws.png:large)
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Fred está luchando como un jabato contra la cizalladura. Así, aunque los casi 50 KT le han arrancado la convección que ha mantenido durante la noche, hoy está consiguiendo regenerarla a borbotones. Así hasta ver si consigue llegar a zonas menos hostiles ;D
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN_p2U0WsAA8-ky.png:large)
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Hora local de Caracas 7:45pm
Fred sigue como TT en el Atlántico subtropical E:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.0 NORTE 35.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 850 MI...1370 KM AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 295 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpsk9u0quvx.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpsk9u0quvx.gif.html)
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Citar Gale
Fred está luchando como un jabato contra la cizalladura. Así, aunque los casi 50 KT le han arrancado la convección que ha mantenido durante la noche, hoy está consiguiendo regenerarla a borbotones. Así hasta ver si consigue llegar a zonas menos hostiles
- Por esta zona, ha vuelto a dar señales de vida, al atardecer, cubriendo el cielo parcialmente de Nubes Altas.
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Sigue vivo, contra pronóstico, gracias a esa bandera convectiva que le sigue proporcionando un cierto sustento. Aunque los pronósticos lo siguen debilitando, podría poner rumbo a Azores como depresión tropical...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COCn2NqWEAAta6F.png:large)
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29241;image)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Todavía es pronto para saber si los remanentes de esta perturbación podría afectarnos y cuanto tiempo seguiría como depresión tropical. Habrá que vigilar
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El envite de la cizalladura, hoy superior a 50 KT según CIMSS, ha terminado por dejar sin convección a FRED, de modo que el CNH la ha degradado a depresión tropical. Sin embargo esperan que las condiciones mejoren en unos días, y algunos modelos contemplan regeneración... Veremos...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041446
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015
Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent
bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over
the cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation
is not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are
gradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt.
The shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so,
resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a
remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global
models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3
days. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is
anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of
regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants
recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies.
The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt,
steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude
trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central
Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to
recurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which
follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is
interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of
runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 22.3N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96H 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
$$
Forecaster Avila
Fred va a seguir dando trabajo evil
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:30pm
Fred es degradada a depresión tropical. En la visible se muestra lo implacable de la cizalladura en complicidad con un poco de aire seco:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/1_zpsstpx6yux.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/1_zpsstpx6yux.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zps4s9z1rwc.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zps4s9z1rwc.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000057_zpsoeul0yzp.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000057_zpsoeul0yzp.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
--------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.3 NORTE 38.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 1275 MI...2050 KM AL SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARES...29.71 PULGADAS
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Hora local de Caracas 9pm
Fred sigue peleando con la cizalladura, pero que va no puede:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zpsp7arpyoz.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zpsp7arpyoz.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zpsrz8ll7el.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zpsrz8ll7el.gif.html)
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Vaya vaya con fred, no solo se resiste a abandonar su categoría como tormenta y acabar como depresion p, si no que en los próximos días y según se vaya acercando a las azores volvera a su categoría de tormenta. A ver luego hacia donde va a tirar: si absorbida por el jet polar va dirigida hacia el norte de Europa o acaba dando sustos hacia él este - sureste. Vamos como para no perderla de vista 👀👀
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/09/05/f9ac9f49f94bd29138abb27567f55451.jpg)
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(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-RVCLaDhaohM/VeqqiYrmEwI/AAAAAAAADbs/sp-ICooTsEM/w720-h480-no/ffred.gif)
Ya sabía yo que Fred iba a dar la campanada........... Es un claro caso de ciclón tropical que, a saber por qué, consigue librarse de los efectos de la cizalladura... De hecho, ayer la degradaron a depresión tropical... y, oh! sorpresa! ya es tormenta tropical otra vez ;D
De hecho, no entiendo muy bien la discusión, porque en ella escriben como si Fred nunca hubiese sido degradada a depresión tropical ¿metedura de pata? ???
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015
Fred continues to produce bursts of convection, although the bursts
are smaller and farther from the center than they were 24 hours
ago. This suggests that the ongoing 35-40 kt of westerly vertical
shear is causing a gradual weakening. The initial intensity remains
35 kt based on a subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB,
as well as objective AMSU and satellite consensus estimates from
CIMSS and CIRA. The central pressure has been lowered a little
based on additional observations from drifting buoy 13519, which
reported a minimum pressure of 1008.4 mb as the center of Fred
passed to the north.
The initial motion is 290/10. Fred is approaching a large break in
the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough and
associated surface low centered several hundred miles east of
Bermuda. The track guidance is in good agreement that this
baroclinic system will move eastward for the next several days, with
Fred recurving to the northeast between it and the subtropical
ridge. After recurvature, there is some spread in the forecast
forward speed, with the new track compromising between the faster
ECMWF/GFS models and the slower UKMET/Canadian models. The new
track is nudged slightly to the north of the previous track from
36-96 hours, and then is nudged a little to the east of the previous
track at 120 hours.
The intensity forecast is low in confidence due to several possible
scenarios. First, although it is not explicitly forecast, Fred
could become a remnant low at any time during the next 24 to 36
hours due to continued shear and dry air entrainment, followed by
regeneration to a tropical cyclone when the shear subsequently
decreases. Second, the dynamical models have two scenarios for Fred
as it interacts with the above-mentioned trough and surface low
after recurvature. One possibility, supported by the GFS and the
ECMWF, is that a relatively weak Fred gets absorbed into the
baroclinic low and dissipates earlier than currently forecast.
Another possibility, supported by the UKMET and Canadian models, is
that Fred stays farther away from the baroclinic low and intensifies
more than is currently forecast. Given the uncertainty, the new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling
for slight weakening early in the forecast period followed by slight
intensification after 36 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 23.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.7N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 24.7N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 26.3N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.2N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 36.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Mas que metedura de pata es un caso raro que no se comprende bien, porque en esas condiciones tan adversas que siga manteniéndose como TS es un misterio. Rarezas de ese tipo no son las primeras
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Mas que metedura de pata es un caso raro que no se comprende bien, porque en esas condiciones tan adversas que siga manteniéndose como TS es un misterio. Rarezas de ese tipo no son las primeras
Eso ya lo sé, compañero...
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El NHC propone varias posibilidades:
La previsión de fred en cuanto a intensidad es poco fiable debido posibles
escenarios. En primer lugar, aunque no se prevé explícitamente, Fred
podría convertirse en una baja remanente en cualquier momento durante las próximos 24 a 36 horas debido a la alta cizalladura y la absorción de aire seco, pudiendo regenerarse de nuevo en ciclón tropical cuando la cizalladura
disminuya. En segundo lugar, los modelos dinámicos tienen dos escenarios para Fred
ya que interactúa con las condiciones ambientales antes mencionadas una vez recurve en su movimiento hacia las azores Una posibilidad, con el apoyo de las EFP y el
ECMWF, es que un relativamente débil Fred sea absorvido por el jet y se disipe antes de lo actualmente previsto.
Otra posibilidad, apoyada por el UKMET y modelos canadienses, es
que Fred se resista al jet y se intensifique.
Dada la incertidumbre, el pronostico mas fiable es que sufra un lijero
Debilitamiento seguido por una leve intensificación después de 36 horas.
-
Los forecasters están hasta las narices de FRED :DDD :DDD :DDD Por otro lado, Avila siempre imprime su particular sello a sus predicciones...
00
WTNT41 KNHC 051444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015
Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.
However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The
initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and
continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection
redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in
intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the
next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as
indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.
Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-
northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should
begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC
forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the
GFS and the ECMWF solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-yAQZB5oYETk/VesDr_R1G9I/AAAAAAAADcc/zOGSFac64J0/w720-h480-no/54y4.gif)
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La cizalladura tan bestial al final ha sido capaz de dejar desnudo a FRED, liquidando toda la convección...
GFS casi lo disipa en las próximas horas, pero después lo regenera. Dependiendo de qué haga al final, aún tiene posibilidades de acercarse a Canarias:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COKcWoHXAAE0deW.png:large)
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Hora local de Caracas 3:30pm
Fred continúa totalmente cizallado, sin embargo la rotación es altamente didáctica al mostrar la circulación cerrada:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/3.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/3.gif.html)
...FRED SE REHUSA A DEBILITARSE...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
--------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.4 NORTE 41.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 1335 MI...2145 KM AL SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 295 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARES...29.74 PULGADAS
-
La han rebajado a depresión tropical de nuevo...
El avión no tripulado de la NASA, el Global Hawk, ha adquirido hoy esta foto de Fred en la que se puede ver cómo la nubosidad que configura su remolino no tiene gran desarrollo...
Gerrit Everson @GerritEverson 4 hhace 4 horas
Images taken by @NASA Global Hawk on approach to TS Fred during @NOAA SHOUT. Fred is still alive in central Atlantic
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COKw3WHUEAAYoec.jpg:large)
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FRED sigue comportándose como ayer, con explosiones convectivas intermitentes, pero hoy el CNH no ha querido devolverle el estatus de tormenta tropical. Ya ha girado al norte, antes de lo esperado. A partir de ahora, a ver cómo se comporta porque hay mucha incertidumbre en cuanto a su comportamiento.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-hgcpKe6IqJ8/VewC7RCnfUI/AAAAAAAADd0/UY8-g1HLMrY/w720-h480-no/degb.gif)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 060837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015
Thunderstorm activity has continued to pulse near the center of
Fred overnight, however, strong northwesterly shear is causing
the cloud tops to be quickly shunted southeastward. The initial
intensity is maintained at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a
Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB. Little overall change in strength
is expected today. In 24 to 36 hours the shear is expected to
diminish, which could allow a brief opportunity for Fred to
restrengthen. After that time, the cyclone is expected to enter an
area of stronger westerly upper-level winds and cooler SSTs, which
should halt further intensification. Late in the period, strong
shear and marginal SSTs should cause weakening. An alternate
scenario shown by the ECMWF is for the shear to cause Fred to
weaken and become a trough of low pressure within the next 12
to 24 hours.
Fred has finally made its much anticipated northward turn. A turn
toward the northeast should occur later today as the cyclone is
steered around the western periphery of a low-level ridge to its
northeast. A turn toward the east and then southeast are forecast
late in the period as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of
the cyclone. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory
and is in best agreement with the 0000 UTC GFS model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 24.9N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.2N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 32.2N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 31.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29253;image)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Mucha dispersión a medio plazo, lo que significa incertidumbre para entonces...
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-fred-06l-atlantico-cabo-verde-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29257;image)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Por ahora, el camino de Fred está muy claro...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COPZwdIWsAA_amR.png:large)
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No lo tengo tan claro. Probablemente siga el camino de condiciones menos hostiles para su desarrollo. Tenemos en torno a 27.5ºC de SST al W de Canarias y con poca cizalladura.
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Hora local de Caracas 3:30pm
Fred como depresión tropical a perdido identidad pese a su convección:
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 43.2W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/a_1.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/a_1.gif.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/1_19.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/1_19.jpg.html)
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REMANENTES DE FRED
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST DOMINGO 06 de septiembre 2015
Las imágenes de satélite visible indica que
la circulación de bajo nivel se alarga y queda mal definida por lo tanto el sistema carece de un centro bien definido. Consecuentemente Fred
ya no es un ciclón tropical.
Los remanentes tomaran dirección norte-noreste en general hasta que pierdan por completo su identidad en un día más o menos.
Información adicional sobre este sistema se encuentra en alta mar
Los pronósticos emitidos por el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional ... bajo AWIPS
encabezado NFDHSFAT1 y la cabecera de la OMM FZNT01 KWBC.
POSICIONES CON PREVISIONES Y VIENTOS MAX
INIT 06 / 2100Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH ... REMANENTES
12H 07 / 0600Z ... DISIPADO
Descanse en paz
-
Pues el CNH lo ha finiquitado... y eso que esta tarde sí que había LLCC...
Bueno, mañana veremos a ver qué queda de FRED... si queda algo...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 062039
TCDAT1
REMNANTS OF FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015
High-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation had become elongated and ill-defined. This
is further reinforced by a 37 GHz GCOM microwave image showing
that the system lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, Fred is
no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued.
The disturbance should continue on a general north-northeastward
heading until it completely loses its identity in a day or so.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
-
Esta mañana aún era perceptible un remolino al suroeste de las Azores, los restos de FRED, embebido en un extenso frente frío... pero en las últimas imágenes del visible, prácticamente ya ha desaparecido...