000WTNT41 KNHC 300847TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continuedto improve this early morning with the development of a small CDOfeature and a tightly curved band in the western and southernquadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image furtherindicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around aprimitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, andthis intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/Ssatellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantictropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database.The initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to theprevious forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to movenorthwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape VerdeIslands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospherictrough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by theglobal and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36hours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fredon a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. Thelatest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previousforecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just anupdate of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCAconsensus model solutions.Fred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanicconditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical windshear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70percent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The maininhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cycloneafter 24 hours. However, there should still be enough availableinstability to support deep convection that will allow at leaststeady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could stillreach hurricane status before or while it moves through the CapeVerde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterlyvertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone whileFred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditionsshould combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHCintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCNintensity consensus model.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/0900Z 12.4N 18.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 13.4N 20.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 14.6N 22.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 23.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.0N 25.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.5N 29.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 19.2N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH120H 04/0600Z 19.8N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH$$Forecaster Stewart
Brenden MosesTropical Storm Fred has formed incredibly close to the African coastline, something that very rarely happens in the Atlantic basin. But just how unusual is it? I took a run through HURDAT and put together a list of storms that formed east of 20W. I have not included tropical depressions that did not reach gale strength at some point in their life, as the non-developing database is subject to a lot of error and misrepresented systems (i.e. depressions that were really just waves). For argument's sake, I've included when systems became both a TD and a TS.From what I've found, Fred is tied as the second-easternmost tropical storm on record, alongside unnamed storms in 1900 and 1988 (18.5W). The easternmost tropical storm on record was Ginger in 1967, reaching 18.1W. The easternmost tropical depression (that later became a tropical storm) was Christine in 1973, forming overland at 14.0W. This will likely be removed from the database once the reanalysis reaches this storm as it goes against the definition of a tropical cyclone (though it may very well have had a closed low over land).Keep in mind that prior to the satellite era (which started in the 1960s), records out over the open Atlantic and near Africa are very questionable.2015: Tropical Storm Fred (TD at 17.7W, TS at 18.5W)2000: Hurricane Alberto (TD at 18.0W, TS at 20.1W)1999: Hurricane Cindy (TD at 18.9W, TS at 26.6W)1998: Hurricane Jeanne (TD at 17.4W, TS at 19.4W)1988: Unnamed Tropical Storm (TD at 17.5W, TS at 18.5W)1987: Tropical Storm Dennis (TD at 18.4W, TS at 25.0W)1980: Hurricane Frances (TD at 19.0W, TS at 21.8W)1973: Tropical Storm Christine (TD at 14.0W, TS at 30.0W)1967: Tropical Storm Ginger (TD at 18.3W, TS at 18.1W)1964: Hurricane Dora (tentative reanalysis by myself: TD at 17.0W, TS at 41.9W)1964: Tropical Storm Florence (tentative reanalysis by myself: TD at 18.0W, TS at 22.4W)1962: Tropical Storm Becky (TD at 18.8W, TS at 23.3W)1961: Hurricane Debbie (tentative reanalysis by Sandy: TD at 17.7W, TS at 22.0W)1952: Hurricane Able (TD at 19.0W, TS at 55.8W)1938: Great New England hurricane (TD at 19.4W, TS at 23.0W)1928: Okeechobee/San Felipe Segundo hurricane (TD at 17.0W, TS at 20.0W)1923: Unnamed Tropical Storm 3 (TD at 19.4W, TS at 20.0W)1900: Unnamed Hurricane 3 (TS at 18.5W)1892: Unnamed Hurricane 5 (TS at 19.5W)
000WTNT41 KNHC 301450TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620151100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associatedwith the tropical cyclone continues to organize. A curved band ofconvection now wraps almost completely around the center and recentimages show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlierWindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based onthese the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengtheningduring the next 24 to 36 hours. During that time, there willbe sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remainlow, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperaturesof 27 to 28C. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated andthe SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within24 hours. Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWFmodels, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves throughthe Cape Verde Islands. After 36 hours, lower sea surfacetemperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stableenvironment should cause weakening.Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm isforecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropicalridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands. In a couple of days,the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred toturn west-northwestward. As Fred weakens and become a more shallowcyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestwardmotion is expected. The NHC track is near the consensus of theECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours. Later in the period, the NHCforecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this trackis along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement withthe ECMWF.Based on this track and intensity forecast, the MeteorologicalService of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warningfor those islands.Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generatedproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for theCape Verde Islands.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH$$Forecaster Brown
Eric Blake@EricBlake12#Fred has prompted a #hurricane warning for the #CapeVerde Islands-- believe it is the 1st on record there!
Vamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero.
Cita de: GranCanario345 en Agosto 30, 2015, 18:29:37 pmVamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. nubosidad alta garantizada y media tal vez...
Cita de: maquina80 en Agosto 30, 2015, 18:35:41 pmCita de: GranCanario345 en Agosto 30, 2015, 18:29:37 pmVamos a ver si Fred nos envía aunque sea algo de nubosidad a las islas y poder ver algo, pero. nubosidad alta garantizada y media tal vez...Algo más que eso.
000WTNT41 KNHC 302035TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A new burst ofdeep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becomingmore symmetric. Late afternoon visible satellite pictures alsoreveal increased banding in all quadrants. AMSR-2 and GCOMmicrowave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continuesto exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring inthe 37 GHz imagery. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 fromTAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterizedby very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficientmid-level moisture during the next day or so. Therefore, additionalstrengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred tobecome a hurricane tonight or early Monday. This is supported bythe statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred tohurricane status. In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclonewill be moving into a more hostile environment of increasingsouthwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a morestable air mass. This should result in weakening throughout theremainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakensFred to a tropical depression by 120 h.Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initialmotion estimate is 310/14 kt. The forecast track philosophy remainsunchanged from before. The cyclone should move northwestward towarda break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so. In acouple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridgerebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern andcentral Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast is a little northof the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreementwith the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generatedproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for theCape Verde Islands.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.6N 22.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.2N 26.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.2N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.6N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 21.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH120H 04/1800Z 22.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH$$Forecaster Brown