000
WTNT43 KNHC 160835
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. GORDON SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALMOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM CLOSE TO OR BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 72
HRS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM 48-72
HR...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
GORDON APPEARS TO HAVE RECURVED AND IS MOVING ABOUT 015/12 KT. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON SHOULD INTERACT MORE WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A TROUGH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE HAS
BEEN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
WHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT
TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 32.2N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 33.5N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 34.4N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 35.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 36.8N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 39.5N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
La línea que interesa es la blanca :PPlenamente de acuerdo.... ;)
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201208_sat_anim.gif)
Si si, tiene muy buena pinta, aqui lo vemos en el momento que empieza a girar a NNE.
:O* :O*
:D1 :D1 :D1
(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/ATL/08L.EIGHT/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20120816.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.08LEIGHT.30kts-1013mb-291N-550W.100pc.jpg)
:D1 :D1 :D1
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/ATL/08L.EIGHT/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20120816.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.08LEIGHT.30kts-1013mb-291N-550W.100pc.jpg (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/ATL/08L.EIGHT/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20120816.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.08LEIGHT.30kts-1013mb-291N-550W.100pc.jpg)
Buenas! Me podrias pasarl el link de la web de donde extraes estas imagenes? Muchas gracias ;) Esque aun me estoy iniciando en el tema de Meteo tropical ;)
Hola amig@s!Ese es el problema, que el agua de la costa de Portugal está bastante más fría que más hacia las Azores debido a la corriente del norte. Por esos días, y después de la ola de calor, las del Golfo de Cádiz se habrán calentado un poco, se podría pasear hacia allí ;D
Desde luego que Gordon, parece que curiosamente va a revivir al Gordon de 2006.
Parece que la temperatura del agua en el Atlántico lo puede mantener muy bien alimentado hasta las Islas Azores, por lo que es probable que llegase al menos como Cat. 1 o Tormenta Tropical. Cerca de la Península el agua está bastante más fría, por lo que es probable que en esos 1600km se desgaste y no llegue más que como una borrasca, pero si con el paso de los días y con el calor, el agua en las costas de Portugal aumenta unos graditos más, podría llegarno con algo más de fuerza.
Noticia en portada y trendtopic: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2847-nace-gordon-en-el-atlantico-central-rumbo-a-las-azores-como-probable-huracan.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2847-nace-gordon-en-el-atlantico-central-rumbo-a-las-azores-como-probable-huracan.html)
BUENÍSIMAS ANIMACIONES JAVIER! de verdad, son la caña.
Y al final lo dicho, al tocar el agua fría muere como un Gremli
De todos modos, apunto que algo de lluvia nos dejará
000
WTNT43 KNHC 161433
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE FORMED AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH INDICATES
THAT GORDON IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T3.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5 FROM SAB...AND T2.7 ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN
THE MID-LEVEL BANDED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A 16/1143 UTC SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 45-KT TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
GORDON IS RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
045/14 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 27C LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. BY 48
HOURS...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
SHARPLY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PUT A BRAKE ON THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS. AS GORDON APPROACHES THE AZORES IN 4 DAYS...
THE SYSTEM COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...IV15.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 33.3N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 34.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 34.9N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 34.9N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 34.8N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 35.6N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 40.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Pues cada vez se pone la cosa mas interesante ;D ;D:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/at201208_ensmodel.gif
¿como lo veis? ::) ::)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 162040
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
GORDON HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY COILED CONVECTIVE CLOUD
BANDS SPIRALING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T3.0/45 KT
FROM SAB...AND T2.7/39 KT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. AN 1143 UTC SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND A 1311 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS REVEALED 39-KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WHEN ADJUSTED FOR THE
KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA YIELDS ABOUT 44 KT. GIVEN
THE MUCH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE SINCE THOSE MICROWAVE DATA WERE
ACQUIRED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
GORDON IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 055/15 KT...AND
IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. GORDON
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BETWEEN DAYS 3
AND 4. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MANAGED THUS FAR TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
INNER CORE REGION. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH SSTS GREATER
THAN 27C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. AS GORDON
NEARS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS CLOSE
TO IV15 INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 34.2N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.7N 49.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 34.9N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 34.7N 42.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 34.7N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 36.1N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 38.8N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 41.2N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Lo que sí parece claro es que estos días, con la ola de calor, los vientos del norte en la costa portuguesa se debilitan, en el Golfo de Cádiz pasará lo mismo, y la corriente del norte que enfría las aguas del Golfo se hará más débil, lo que conlleva a un calentamiento de la superficie del mar en el Golfo (consecuencia también del efecto de la ola de calor con viento bastante débil y tª alta). Creo no equivocarme. Si nos rozara un poquito nuestro amigo...El agua marina es ciertamente independiente de la atmosfera con respecto a una reaccion inmediata, no creo que un debilitamiento del viento en un momento concreto no afecta a las corrientes marinas.
Estoy de acuerdo, la reacción de la tª del agua del mar al cambio de la tª atmosférica es mucho más lenta. Sin embargo, las corrientes sí influyen mucho. En el Golfo de Cádiz cambia mucho la tª dependiendo de las corrientes. Cuando sopla NO con bastante intensidad, la corriente fría que desciende pegada a las costas portuguesas y gira el Cabo de San Vicente enfría el Golfo. Sin embargo, cuando entra levante, esa corriente de agua fría no alimenta el Golfo y éste permanece más cálido. La diferencia de grados en pocos días es notoria. En la costa por supuesto mucho más, cuando sopla NO el agua está muy fría en Huelva, sin embargo, tras 2 ó 3 días de levante, la tª sube considerablemente (de menos de 18º puede subir a más de 22º-23º). En el Golfo la variación es más rápida que en el Mediterráneo, donde apenas existe variación. Al menos esto es lo que conozco del comportamiento del Golfo de Cádiz.Lo que sí parece claro es que estos días, con la ola de calor, los vientos del norte en la costa portuguesa se debilitan, en el Golfo de Cádiz pasará lo mismo, y la corriente del norte que enfría las aguas del Golfo se hará más débil, lo que conlleva a un calentamiento de la superficie del mar en el Golfo (consecuencia también del efecto de la ola de calor con viento bastante débil y tª alta). Creo no equivocarme. Si nos rozara un poquito nuestro amigo...El agua marina es ciertamente independiente de la atmosfera con respecto a una reaccion inmediata, no creo que un debilitamiento del viento en un momento concreto no afecta a las corrientes marinas.
Por lo que en ese lapso concreto no creo que se caliente la superficie. Y el hecho de que aumente la T en superficie no calienta un volumen de agua bien extenso.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170841
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GORDON HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC. MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. A SMALL TROUGH SEEN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF GORDON IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES COULD HAVE HELPED CAUSED
THE RECENT INCREASE IN SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH WEAKENING...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AGAIN.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE STILL PREDICT GORDON WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THOUGH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SOLUTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
STILL SHOWS GORDON BRIEFLY AS A HURRICANE. THE NEW FORECAST IS
GENERALLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SHADED TOWARD THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE.
GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT. THE STORM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE A
LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...GORDON WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WHILE GORDON IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...A COMBINATION OF
COLD WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND A NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
PROMOTE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR OR BEFORE IT
REACHES THOSE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 34.5N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 34.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 34.2N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 34.7N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z 39.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z 40.0N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Una curiosidad que estoy teniendo estos días... ¿Como que han repetido el nombre del que hubo en el 2006? ???
Una curiosidad que estoy teniendo estos días... ¿Como que han repetido el nombre del que hubo en el 2006? ???
Porque a excepción de los nombres que son retirados por pertenecer a ciclones muy dañinos, las listas se repiten cada 6 años... Es decir, al año que viene se usará la lista de 2007, y así sucesivamente :P
Por ejemplo, de la temporada del año pasado, se retiró el nombre de IRENE, y se ha colocado en su lugar a IRMA: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2590-temporada-atlantica-de-huracanes-adios-irene-hola-irma.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2590-temporada-atlantica-de-huracanes-adios-irene-hola-irma.html)
:O*
http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1193/visanimated.gif (http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1193/visanimated.gif)
Hay gente que me está preguntando qué es lo que veo en la imagen para deducir que está pasando por dificultades; es muy fácil:
Si os fijáis en la nubosidad convectiva, es muy uniforme; no se observan overshootings, y esto no es porque haya dos grandes mazacotes convectivos muy poderosos, sino porque la convección actual es madura y no se observan nuevas células convectivas que vayan a reemplazar a las maduras, en proceso de degradación... Esto claramente se traduce en un impasse del ciclón. A ver cómo se recupera esta tarde, y si logra vomitar esos problemas actuales.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7658/2012AL08_16KMGWVP_201208171145_amk7.GIF (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7658/2012AL08_16KMGWVP_201208171145_amk7.GIF)
Esa imagen revela la presencia de una intrusión de aire seco por el flanco sur del ciclón... GORDON, delicada flor, comienza a ser terreno de paso de una manada de elefantes... Veremos si es capaz de superar estos primeros obstáculos...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 171440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GORDON REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DISPLACED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW AROUND 15 KT OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHILE MET-9 AIRMASS
IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON AN
OBSERVATION OF 999 MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY THAT THE CENTER PASSED
JUST NORTH OF AROUND 1000 UTC.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW GORDON TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES
SUB-26C WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE PEAKING AT 60 KT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST...095/16.
GORDON WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO
THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. BY 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST AND INDUCE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. A SLOW EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1250 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 34.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 34.2N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 34.1N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 34.4N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 35.2N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 38.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 39.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 39.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Por momentos se vuelve a reactivar la convección! :D :D
http://oi46.tinypic.com/256uz2r.jpg (http://oi46.tinypic.com/256uz2r.jpg)
Uy, uy, uy............... Se avecinan problemas para GORDON
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/639/gordi_xbj1.jpg)
Si la Península Ibérica se está viendo sometida a la enésima advección de polvo sahariano de este año, la circulación de GORDON también está favoreciendo que una lengua de polvo también ascienda por su flanco sureste, tal como aparece descrito gráficamente en la imagen en color natural y RGB de esta tarde a las 18 UTC.
Cuando ese aire seco y pulvirulento entre en la estructura de GORDON, lo va a machacar vivo... No sé yo si los modelos están contemplando los efectos de esta advección de SAL...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 44.0W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GORDON WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES
ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZORES BY LATE SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
000
WTNT43 KNHC 180233
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
A SERIES OF SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM THE NAVY/NRL TC PAGE
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF GORDON. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE
TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND TWO EARLIER CIRA AMSU-A
ESTIMATES OF 62 AND 70 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
60 KT.
THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...GORDON COULD STILL BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE STRENGTHENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE
72 HOUR PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAM. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND REFLECTS DISSIPATION AT DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 090/16 KT...WITHIN THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD AT A RAPID CLIP THROUGH DAY 3 AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
THE UNITED KINGDOM. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BE A WEAK POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 34.2N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.1N 39.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 34.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 35.2N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 36.4N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 39.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 39.0N 16.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Here comes!! GORDON ES HURACÁN DE FORMA OFICIAL 8)
Hurricane GORDON
...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES...
5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 18
Location: 34.0°N 40.7°W
Moving: E at 18 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
¿Existe alguna posibilidad que Gordon afecte a Canarias?. Saludos ???Cero patatero
Las previsiones han fallado respecto a la evolución de GORDON y este ha llegado a huracán categoría 1.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 181436
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND IS QUITE DISTINCT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR GORDON
TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASED SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/16...AS GORDON IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES GORDON AND THE LARGER DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW
NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
GIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AZORES AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 34.1N 38.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 34.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 35.0N 31.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 36.1N 27.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 37.4N 24.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 38.5N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 38.5N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Mantiene la intensidad...
https://qr6lwq.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pE_N0tOQP_daVDfsMVMqmxmpTGPyY9Bb9a6WnQ92D6RPiF9S6AJLBzdKRKow4Gan0xk9DzQI6IZHyl_XZ6i6qZtGVikIyOdo6/Gordon_2.gif?psid=1
La isla de Sao Miguel en primera zona de riesgo y encima con una topografía nada favorable.
Estaba ojeando dónde y cómo están construidas la ciudades de la isla y para iros preparando, muchas de ellas están en la salida de torrentes o al pie de las laderas de los volcanes. Tal y como lo veo, en caso de llegar con lluvias de 100 litros, no sería para nada extraño ver salir el agua por lo alto de las azoteas o metiendo coladas de barro y roca.
Sinceramente, ante situaciones así en zonas como está... ojalá no haya que lamentar víctimas
Buenas
Soy nuevo en el foro y os felicito por la información que aportais a la gente que nos gusta esto.
Como hay mucha información vía satélite, os dejo la direccion de las camaras web de las Azores por donde va a pasar Gordon. Parece que tienen muy buena resolución.
Un saludo.
http://www.azores.gov.pt/Portal/pt/entidades/srp/livres/Webcams+dos+A%C3%A7ores.htm (http://www.azores.gov.pt/Portal/pt/entidades/srp/livres/Webcams+dos+A%C3%A7ores.htm)
¿Categoría 2?
Me parece a mi que no...
Aunque podría serlo.
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE T5.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE STRONGER
INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN 36
TO 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS IF
NOT A LITTLE SOONER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AS THE DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
50N/20W STEERS GORDON QUICKLY EASTWARD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TUG GORDON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES...A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
FASTER...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF MODEL THROUGH DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 34.1N 36.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 34.4N 33.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 35.4N 29.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 36.8N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 22.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 39.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif)
podría aún dar un último impulso e intesificarse! muy atentos a las próximas 12h porque son vitales
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif)
podría aún dar un último impulso e intesificarse! muy atentos a las próximas 12h porque son vitales
Me podrias pasar el enlace de donde extraes la imagen?Llevo buscando tiempo imagenes de las "Ondas tropicales". Gracias de antemano ;)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif)
podría aún dar un último impulso e intesificarse! muy atentos a las próximas 12h porque son vitales
Me podrias pasar el enlace de donde extraes la imagen?Llevo buscando tiempo imagenes de las "Ondas tropicales". Gracias de antemano ;)
lo he sacado de twitter así.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 182341
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY...BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190846
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
GORDON REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
VALUES LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE AND A THINNING OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE HAS NOW MOVED OVER
SUB-26C WATERS AND CURRENTLY LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
FURTHER ON THE EXPECTED TRACK AND BECAUSE GORDON IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...WHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY DECOUPLED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 4...FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 40N/40W IS SWINGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING GORDON VERY NEAR SANTA
MARIA AND SAO MIGUEL ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN AZORES IN 18 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER PASSING THE AZORES...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURN BACK TO THE EAST
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 34.9N 31.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 35.7N 28.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 37.2N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 22.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 39.4N 19.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 39.7N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
aqui un enlace de las estaciones meteorológicas de las Azores:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=azores (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=azores)
buen seguimiento
El ultimo aviso del IMP...
O furacão Gordon encontra-se atualmente sobre a zona marítima dos Açores como categoria II, seguindo uma trajetória muito próxima da prevista e devendo enfraquecer progressivamente durante a sua aproximação as ilhas do Grupo Oriental. O centro do furacão deverá estar localizado muito próximo da ilha de S. Maria pelas 06h TUC de segunda-feira 20.
Nestas condições mantém-se, de uma forma gera, as previsões do último comunicado:
Para a ilha de S. Miguel, ventos médios de 90 km/h, com rajadas entre 120 e 130 km/h.
Para a ilha de S. Maria, ventos médios até 130 km/h, com rajadas até 160 km/h.
Está prevista precipitação intensa, trovoada e agitação marítima forte com ondas entre 14 e 16 m.
http://www.cadenaser.com/espana/articulo/preocupacion-cercania-huracan-gordon-canarias/csrcsrpor/20120818csrcsrnac_14/Tes (http://www.cadenaser.com/espana/articulo/preocupacion-cercania-huracan-gordon-canarias/csrcsrpor/20120818csrcsrnac_14/Tes)
parece ser que el Gobierno de Canarias espera que llegue a las islas. Se nota que siguen bien los modelos y predicciones
http://www.cadenaser.com/espana/articulo/preocupacion-cercania-huracan-gordon-canarias/csrcsrpor/20120818csrcsrnac_14/Tes (http://www.cadenaser.com/espana/articulo/preocupacion-cercania-huracan-gordon-canarias/csrcsrpor/20120818csrcsrnac_14/Tes)
parece ser que el Gobierno de Canarias espera que llegue a las islas. Se nota que siguen bien los modelos y predicciones
Pues es una buena pregunta; desde mi ignorancia, agradecería muchísimo que los foreros más versados explicasen si puede darse o no esa situación y por qué.
Mil gracias de antemano!
Justo iba a hacer la misma consulta de Turifero. Soy novato en esto, por lo que igual es decir una auténtica burrada... Pero no estaría mal... :P
Tengo una duda: supongamos que Gordon consiguiera llegar a la zona del estrecho con cierta estructura tropical, aunque fuera como tormenta o depresión, si pasara al mediterráneo con la temperatura del mar que hay ahora mismo, ¿podría reactivarse?.eso es lo que todos en este foro deseamos,
Pues es una buena pregunta; desde mi ignorancia, agradecería muchísimo que los foreros más versados explicasen si puede darse o no esa situación y por qué.
Mil gracias de antemano!Justo iba a hacer la misma consulta de Turifero. Soy novato en esto, por lo que igual es decir una auténtica burrada... Pero no estaría mal... :PTengo una duda: supongamos que Gordon consiguiera llegar a la zona del estrecho con cierta estructura tropical, aunque fuera como tormenta o depresión, si pasara al mediterráneo con la temperatura del mar que hay ahora mismo, ¿podría reactivarse?.eso es lo que todos en este foro deseamos,
a ver que dicen los expertos en estos temas,
saludos
Pues es una buena pregunta; desde mi ignorancia, agradecería muchísimo que los foreros más versados explicasen si puede darse o no esa situación y por qué.
Mil gracias de antemano!Justo iba a hacer la misma consulta de Turifero. Soy novato en esto, por lo que igual es decir una auténtica burrada... Pero no estaría mal... :PTengo una duda: supongamos que Gordon consiguiera llegar a la zona del estrecho con cierta estructura tropical, aunque fuera como tormenta o depresión, si pasara al mediterráneo con la temperatura del mar que hay ahora mismo, ¿podría reactivarse?.eso es lo que todos en este foro deseamos,
a ver que dicen los expertos en estos temas,
saludos
Buenas tardes yo tambien me uno a vuestra pregunta sobre que pasaria en ese caso.
P.D. A los nuevos aficionados por favor poner en vuestro perfil del foro desde donde dais los datos meteorologicos para que el resto de la peña lo sepamos.
Saludos de Rafa ;)
Un saludo a todos, creo que os estáis equivocando con la trayectoria del Huracán Gordon, por la trayectoria que parece llevar parece que va en dirección Galicia, nunca al Mediterráneo, al estrecho ni nada parecido.Incluso hace unos minutos en las noticias del tiempo en la 1 han dicho que llegaría a Galicia como Tormenta Tropical y la verdad no han hecho gran mención al Huracán, lo han comentado más bien de pasada, no cómo nada serio a tener en cuenta.
Un saludo.
Un saludo a todos, creo que os estáis equivocando con la trayectoria del Huracán Gordon, por la trayectoria que parece llevar parece que va en dirección Galicia, nunca al Mediterráneo, al estrecho ni nada parecido.Incluso hace unos minutos en las noticias del tiempo en la 1 han dicho que llegaría a Galicia como Tormenta Tropicalenta Tropical y la verdad no han hecho gran mención al Huracán, l serio a tener en cuenta.
Un saludo.
alguien sabe si ha perdido la categoria de Huracan 2? No veo los boletines gracias
000
WTNT43 KNHC 191438
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
THE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE
SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...
LIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY
UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF
GORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE
NHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 35.5N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 36.5N 26.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 38.0N 23.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.2N 20.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 39.5N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Pase lo que pase este huracan esta haciendo las delicias de los que somos aficionados a la meteorologia....y de paso animando un verano muy aburrido al respecto.
No me referia a la temporada de huracanes...si no al tiempo meteorologico en España...al menos en mi zona el verano es de los mas tranquilos que he visto...y el resto del pais...tampoco hay grandes eventosPase lo que pase este huracan esta haciendo las delicias de los que somos aficionados a la meteorologia....y de paso animando un verano muy aburrido al respecto.
Muy aburrido?! A mi me está pareciendo una temporada espectacular; aún no ha habido un major, pero es que estamos prácticamente en el inicio de la temporada, y se está convirtiendo en normal tener 2/3 sistemas en marcha en el Atlántico. ¿Has visto como está la zona de Cabo Verde últimamente?
No me referia a la temporada de huracanes...si no al tiempo meteorologico en España...al menos en mi zona el verano es de los mas tranquilos que he visto...y el resto del pais...tampoco hay grandes eventosPase lo que pase este huracan esta haciendo las delicias de los que somos aficionados a la meteorologia....y de paso animando un verano muy aburrido al respecto.
Muy aburrido?! A mi me está pareciendo una temporada espectacular; aún no ha habido un major, pero es que estamos prácticamente en el inicio de la temporada, y se está convirtiendo en normal tener 2/3 sistemas en marcha en el Atlántico. ¿Has visto como está la zona de Cabo Verde últimamente?
gale me puedes decir que son aguas sin OHC? gracias
Pase lo que pase este huracan esta haciendo las delicias de los que somos aficionados a la meteorologia....y de paso animando un verano muy aburrido al respecto.
Muy aburrido?! A mi me está pareciendo una temporada espectacular; aún no ha habido un major, pero es que estamos prácticamente en el inicio de la temporada, y se está convirtiendo en normal tener 2/3 sistemas en marcha en el Atlántico. ¿Has visto como está la zona de Cabo Verde últimamente?
No me referia a la temporada de huracanes...si no al tiempo meteorologico en España...al menos en mi zona el verano es de los mas tranquilos que he visto...y el resto del pais...tampoco hay grandes eventos
No desviemos el tema.. estamos hablando de Gordon, no del tiempo en España.. sigamos la tematica y las normas del foro, estos tipos de mensaje serán borrados.
Adri, deja que la gente especule... nos gusta esto y todos querríamos que llegase al Mediterráneo y se ponga otra vez Gordoncio, aunque sabemos que no puede ser. Cuando alguien escribe una burada para una persona que sabe, hay que explicarles la realidad, sin más.
Bienvenido a los nuevos y a disfrutar de este hilo que de estos hay muy pocos por desgracia.
Gordon ya ha perdido la cat. 2, vientos sostenidos de 90 mph.
Wow... Excelente info, Javi :o :o :o :o;) ;) ;)
Que probabilidad hay de que nos llegue algo? la verdad lo veo tan cerquita que se me hace la boca agua .je,je,je
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200243
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
OVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CLOUD MASS...BUT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL QUITE STRONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT IS
BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLOW WEAKENING RATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING. GORDON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 72
HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT...BUT IS IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THAT MODEL SHOW GORDON LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
MONDAY.
NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MORE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/17...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GORDON IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GORDON OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED
MAINLY BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE A CONSIDERABLE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT FASTER
THAN THE LATEST GFS TRACK.
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
TIMELY ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 36.7N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 37.8N 23.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.8N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 39.2N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 39.3N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Nuestro amigo ya enfila la península Ibérica,veremos a que distancia de ella muere.
http://i1068.photobucket.com/albums/u452/fobitos/7f6d5bc5.gif (http://i1068.photobucket.com/albums/u452/fobitos/7f6d5bc5.gif)
Nuestro amigo ya enfila la península Ibérica,veremos a que distancia de ella muere.
http://i1068.photobucket.com/albums/u452/fobitos/7f6d5bc5.gif (http://i1068.photobucket.com/albums/u452/fobitos/7f6d5bc5.gif)
Es preciosa esta animación... Muestra la poderosa y vigorosa circulación de GORDON en superficie, y cómo la pelota convectiva sigue adherida a esa circulación y resistiéndose a verse definitivamente desmembrada respecto de ella como resultado de la agresiva cizalladura del viento que está azotando al ciclón... :o :o :o :o
Una pregunta,ya que vosotros sois expertos en la materia,no es malo imaginar y e pensado,que si Gordon en menos de un dia,pasode cat 1 a cat 2,que hubiera pasado si su recorrido hubiese sido mas favorable?hubiese llegado a ser un gran huracan?gracias.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 201441
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012
THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE AZORES PROVIDED A REPORT OF A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES AS GORDON PASSED OVER THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE WIND OF 53 KT WITH A GUST TO 70 KT WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA
MARIA AIRPORT. SINCE PASSING THE EASTERN AZORES...GORDON HAS
CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND THE CENTER IS INCREASINGLY
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...
AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 38.3N 22.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 39.0N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1200Z 39.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 39.2N 17.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 39.0N 16.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Fijáos en los efectos en una piscina... Día antes, y efectos de GORDON...
Vía @Danonebokeron
Fijáos en los efectos en una piscina... Día antes, y efectos de GORDON...
Vía @Danonebokeron
Fijáos en los efectos en una piscina... Día antes, y efectos de GORDON...
Vía @Danonebokeron
¿Estás seguro de que no es un montaje?
Fijáos en los efectos en una piscina... Día antes, y efectos de GORDON...Parece un montaje, esas personas no pueden estar ahí tan tranquilas con esas olas...
Vía @Danonebokeron
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4503/A0v7Q53CQAIZDk5_ztu5.jpg)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 202035
TCDAT3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A
TOLL ON GORDON. DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY GONE...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY BAROCLINIC REDEVELOPMENT. THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI
WEST OF PORTUGAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060
DEGREES AT 14 KT TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN EASTWARD TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 18.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 39.3N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 38.7N 16.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Alerta en las playas de la provincia por la fuerte resaca de la marea
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz los servicios de salvamento realizaron 27 intervenciones desde las 17 horas, cifras similares a las registradas en El Palmar o la Barrosa[/b]
(Diario de Cádiz)
La fuerte resaca de la marea a lo largo de la tarde provocó numerosas intervenciones en diferentes playas de la provincia. Algunas, como la de La Barrosa en Chiclana o la de Conil, fueron cerradas al baño y en otras como en otras localidades como Cádiz o Rota las intervenciones de los efectivos de salvamento se multiplicaron para rescatar a las personas que no eran capaces de alcanzar la orilla tras ser arrastradas por el oleaje.
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz, los Servicios Municipales de Socorrismo y Salvamento ampliaron su turno hasta las 21 horas ante la fuerte resaca de marea que se ha percibido a partir de las 17 horas, según ha informado el teniente de alcaldesa de Seguridad Ciudadana, Juan Antonio Guerrero, quien ha mantenido en la misma zona una reunión de urgencia con los técnicos responsables.
Guerrero ha informado que durante la tarde ha ondeado la bandera amarilla en la playa de la Victoria y se ha informado por megafonía sobre la conveniencia de no alejarse de la orilla a los bañistas. A las 19 horas, una vez tomada la decisión de prolongar durante una hora los servicios de Socorrismo y Salvamento, se empezó a informar sobre esta decisión a los usuarios de la playa. A las 21 horas finaliza el Servicio de Salvamento y Socorrismo y se recomienda a los usuarios que no se bañen ante el peligro que supone la resaca de la marea que se está observando, sobre todo, en la zona que va de los Delfines a Cortadura.
Desde las 17 horas y hasta el momento se han realizado 27 servicios de salvamento a bañistas que se han visto arrastrados por la resaca hacia el interior del agua. Ninguno de los bañistas rescatados han necesitado atención médica, sin que pasara la situación del lógico estado de nerviosismo.
La escena se ha repetido en otras playas del litoral gaditano. Así, en Conil y la Barrosa ondeó la bandera roja después de realizar más de una treintena de intervenciones. Se registraron cifras similares en El Palmar o Rota, así hasta alcanzar más de un centenar de intervenciones en toda la provincia.
http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html (http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html)
¿Hay alguna posibilidad de un suceso así, Gale?