Graves inundaciones, en la costa del Pacífico mexicano, por culpa de HENRIETTE.


Fuente:  Antena 3 TV

03 GMT 09/01/07  17.1N 102.1W     50        997     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/01/07  17.4N 103.2W     50        997     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/01/07  17.8N 104.3W     50        997     Tropical Storm

Está cerquita de ser un huracán de categoría 1.................... G:

Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 08/30/07  14.3N 97.3W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/31/07  14.7N 98.0W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/31/07  15.3N 99.3W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/31/07  15.7N 100.1W     40       1001     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/31/07  16.2N 101.0W     45       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/01/07  17.1N 102.1W     50        997     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/01/07  17.4N 103.2W     50        997     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/01/07  17.8N 104.3W     50        997     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/01/07  18.2N 105.4W     65        994     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/02/07  18.4N 106.1W     70        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/02/07  18.5N 107.0W     70        994     Tropical Storm


Fuente: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

Pues sigue intensificándose......... En la próxima actualización de datos del Centro Nacional de Huracanes seguro que ya catalogan a HENRIETTE como huracán... Cito la discusión nº12 del NHC:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS
FORMING TO THE NORTH.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE.  HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.   

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS.  ADDITIONALLY...
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM.  THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED
UPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...
COOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN WEAKENING.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6.  THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN
TURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST
YEAR.   IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL
MODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY
PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO
THE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W    85 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
120HR VT     07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME[/quote]

Imagen en modo visible de las 17UTC. Fuente: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

03 GMT 09/03/07  18.9N 107.0W     70        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/03/07  19.4N 107.7W     65        995     Tropical Storm

ha perdido fuerza   

09 GMT 09/03/07  19.4N 107.7W     65        995     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/03/07  19.9N 108.5W     70        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/03/07  20.1N 108.5W     70        981     Tropical Storm

va a por cat. 1 

HENRIETTE ya es un huracán de categoría 1 >

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040901
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
HAVE SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF
HENRIETTE.  BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS CLEARLY SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING HENRIETTE THE
THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. 

HENRIETTE APPEARS TO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH...
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
12 HOURS OR SO.  THE UKMET MODEL IS THE FURTHEST TO THE EAST AND
KEEPS HENRIETTE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A HAIR
TO THE EAST AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.  ONCE HENRIETTE IS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FINAL LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND IN STRENGTH...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER BAJA.  THE WATERS ARE
PLENTY WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...SO IT IS POSSIBLY THAT
HENRIETTE COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.  LITTLE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS
A RESULT OF THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THE CENTER WILL BE OVER BAJA.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN THE
CYCLONE MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

BASED ON A 0150 UTC PASS FROM QUIKSCAT...THE WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0900Z 21.4N 109.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 24.5N 110.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.4N 110.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N 110.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Fuente de la imagen: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

y sigue ganando fuerza

09 GMT 09/04/07  21.4N 109.1W     75        978     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/04/07  22.2N 109.4W     85        972     Category 1 Hurricane