Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: bretema en Septiembre 21, 2011, 18:44:16 pm
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Aquí tenemos a HILLARY
TROPICAL STORM HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY SOUTH OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.6N 96.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
Aquí está su trayectoria prevista a día de hoy...
(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6264/tshilaryeastpacific.gif)
Una imágen de satélite de hace apenas una hora:
(http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/7250/tshilaryvisible.jpg)
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HILARY se muestra más fuerte esta mañana:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
...HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.5N 97.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Parece que rápidamenteserá un Categoría 1.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY.
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Se acaba de publicar la actualización del NHC; HILARY a punto de convertirse en huracán.
...HILARY QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.7N 98.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Y atención, que se puede convertir en algo grande en un par de días:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HILARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
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En el aviso intermedio figura a puntito de convertirse en Huracán... en el siguiente, tenemos huracán seguro :D1
...HILARY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.0N 98.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
De aspecto no está nada mal:
(http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/5431/tshilary.jpg)
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Madre mía, esto va -nunca mejor dicho- viento en popa. Ya es un Categoría 1, y la expectativa es que se convierta en un major el viernes noche (hora local)
LOCATION...15.1N 98.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
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Empiezan a llegar las imágenes del visible de la zona...
(http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/849/huracanhilaryvisible.jpg)
(http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/8169/huracanhilaryvisible2.jpg)
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La bola convectiva que se ve a su izquierda parece que lo está alimentando. Además, está en una zona de aguas bien calentitas, por encima de los 30º...
(http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/6945/ssthilary.jpg)
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No me había dado cuenta de que tenemos a HILARY por esta zona del Pacífico.
09E.HILARY.65kts.994mb.14.9N.98.6W
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/7476/visq.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/visq.jpg/)
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3086/avnv.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/199/avnv.jpg/)
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Trayectoria
(http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/2628/201109e.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/155/201109e.png/)
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En hora y media ha mejorado sensiblemente su ya nada mal aspecto..
(http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/5109/huracanhilaryvisible3.jpg)
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Ya es cat. 2 8)
09E.HILARY.90kts.973mb.15.4N.99.4W
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6182/avnc.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/42/avnc.jpg/)
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Se puede convertir en un major en horas...cambio el título del hilo.
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Hora local de Caracas 22:40pm
Poderoso huracán CAT4 al Sur de las costas mexicanas. Este sistema se ha destacado por tener dos áreas de convección muy activas, por allí consegui un reportaje donde se han presentado sistemas tropicales multi-vortice, en este caso Este huracán presenta 2, tratare de investigar algo mas al respecto. Impresiona su aspecto pero por ese "clon",un posible Sistema Convectivo Mesoescalar afectando seriamente el estado de Michoacán:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000006-17.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000007-7.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
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El último aviso lo dibuja como un potente Categoría 4
...HILARY A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
Parece que hacia el sábado podría iniciar su debilitamiento..
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...235
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
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:o :o impresionante bicho
(http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hifloat3_None_anim.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 8pm
Este sistema tropical es un poderoso huracán CAT4 con vientos sostenidos de 215 Km/h , sin embargo proyecciones no sugieren alcance la CAT5. Por si acaso no tenemos uno de ese del lado del Atlántico vale la pena hacerle una radiográfia.
Vortice:
El análisis satélital en superficie de vientos determina y proporciona la estructura anillada de vientos en espiral. Se observa una doble isobara de 95Kt, corresponde al eyewall o pared del ojo, donde se concentran los vientos mas intensos, de alli tanto hacia afuera como hacia adentro los vientos disminuyen en proporción directa a la distancia de la pared. De la pared del ojo hacia adentro el gradiente es brutal para lograr un vacio absoluto o calma del ojo en un espacio tan reducido:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000007-10.jpg)
Importante la estructura del pared del ojo o eyewall, determina la estabilidad del huracán. La imágen infraroja mejorada muestra un anillo concentrico justo alrededor del vórtice ( verde ) rodeada de imponentes sistemas de topes frios ( amarillo ), indicando las tormentas mas violentas:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/3-10.gif)
Y por su puesto un sistema con estas características presenta una simetría adecuada a la estabilidad. La imágen ADT proporciona la verticalidad de un sistema tropical:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/2-10.jpg)
Ya un sistema CAT4 rumbo al CAT5 o viceversa los cambos son muy detallados, por lo que se emplea las imágenes de microondas que nos proporciona la estructura extremadamente detallada de las paredes del ojo. Hilary tuvo su mejor momento ayer, vean la primera imágen donde se observa posiblemente un sistema rozando la CAT5:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000010-4.jpg)
Y ahora la comparamos con la microonda actual, a pesar que mantiene la misma categoria se ve el retroceso de la estructura central, a simpe vista no se ve pero esto indica que Hilary está lejos de alcanzar la CAT5 y posiblemente no lo logre:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000012-4.jpg)
En el siguiente link pueden ver la animada de microondas de las últimas 24 horas de este sistema, donde pueden ver la evolución del ojo bajo la técnica MIMIC
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09E/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09E/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html)
La siguiente gráfica indica el rápido fortalecimiento de Hilary con una caida de presión de 60mb en poco mas de 12h, duplicando la velocidad de los vientos bruscamente, con un gradiente pronunciado, lo que indica una aceleración de vientos imponente. De CAT2 a CAT 4 en mediodía :shock:
Esta es la última imágen visible de hoy, mostrando un sistema vigoroso e imponente:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1-27.gif)
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¿Tocará tierra en el Suroeste de Estados Unidos?
(http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/4093/ep201109ensmodel.gif)
De momento ha sido rebajado nuevamente a Categoría 3:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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09 GMT 09/21/11 13.4N 96.5W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 96.8W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 14.0N 96.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/22/11 14.4N 97.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/22/11 14.7N 98.1W 70 991 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/22/11 15.1N 98.9W 75 989 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/22/11 15.6N 99.8W 105 973 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/23/11 16.0N 100.8W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/23/11 16.0N 101.9W 145 944 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/23/11 16.1N 102.5W 145 944 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/23/11 16.3N 103.1W 145 942 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/24/11 16.7N 104.0W 145 940 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/24/11 17.1N 105.2W 140 946 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/24/11 16.6N 106.2W 140 946 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/24/11 16.9N 106.8W 135 951 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/25/11 17.1N 107.7W 135 950 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/25/11 17.0N 108.4W 125 953 Category 3 Hurricane
Este es el aspecto que mostraba el 23 de septiembre, gracias a una imagen captada por el satélite GOES West proporcionada por el NOAA:
(http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/2655/hilaryl.jpg)
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Sinceramente no creo que llegue a Estados Unidos. Las temperaturas del mar no soportarían a una Tormenta Tropical como mínimo. Sin embargo, puede ser de serio peligro para la la costa de México (Baja California Norte y Baja California Sur).
Respecto a Hillary, ha sido rebajada a categoría 3. Parece que continuará debilitandose a medida que pasen las horas. :-\
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Se ha fortalecido algo..
LOCATION...16.7N 113.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
Este categoría 3 sigue siendo una preciosidad...
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/3396/huracanhilaryvisible4.jpg)
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Una imagen maravillosa :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
Se ha re-fortalecido de nuevo en las últimas horas, tras completar un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo 8)
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261436
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILARY HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING
AROUND A CONTRACTING EYE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
110 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HILARY MAY HAVE
UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL
EYEWALL CYCLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTSIDE
OF THESE INNER-CORE PROCESSES...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SLOW WEAKENING IS IN ORDER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THAT TREND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING. AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LGEM MODEL
GIVEN THE VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/09...AS HILARY CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED WESTWARD BY THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ITS NORTH. THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A SHARP
NORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS HILARY BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 27N 132W.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION
JUST WEST OF HILARY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE GFS AT DAYS 4 AND
5...AS THAT MODEL SHOWS A WEAKER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THAT TIME. THIS MORE EASTWARD
TRACK PUTS THE GFS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MOST OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THIS LARGE SHIFT...I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE
FULL SUITE OF 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A BIT TO THE
EAST OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF MODEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS
AND RECENT AMSU WIND RADII ANALYSES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.7N 113.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.8N 114.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.9N 115.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 18.1N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.4N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN