Pues eso... Ya tenemos a Humberto
000
WTNT44 KNHC 090851
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVING RECENTLY
FORMED VERY NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 34-KT ADT ESTIMATE. AS A
RESULT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HUMBERTO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME MODEST
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING AT 280/10 KT...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...T
HE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERODING THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SOUTHEASTWARD TO
WESTERN AFRICA. THIS RADICAL CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 96
HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN HUMBERTO WESTWARD OVER HIGHER LATITUDES AND
COOLER WATER. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS
SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.
Tema: Huracán HUMBERTO 09L, Cabo Verde, sep13 (Leído 3142 veces)