UN AREA BIEN DEFINIDA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA A 350 MILLAS
AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CAPE VERDE DEL SUR. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS ASOCIADOS ACTUALMENTE SE ENCUENTRA ALEJADO
BIEN HACIA EL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO...LAS CONDICIONES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL...Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO
SE MUEVA AL OESTE NOROESTE A 10 MPH. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA
PROBABILIDAD ALTA...60 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y UNA PROBABILIDAD
ALTA...90 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS. INTERESADOS EN LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEBEN
PERMANECER ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA...YA QUE VIGILANCIAS
O AVISOS PODRIAN SER REQUERIDOS. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SI DESARROLLA
UN CICLON TROPICAL...FUERTES LLUVIAS Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SON
POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS DE CAPE VERDE MAS TARDE HOY.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 082042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
FROM AFRICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURPRISINGLY...
THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST
48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS. THE
NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
A MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS. SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS KEPT A BIT LOWER. THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD
WILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Resulta interesante comprobar cómo el ciclón mantiene sus carcaterísticas a pesar de estar moviéndose sobre aguas con casi nulo contenido en energía... OHC.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120250
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013
THE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF HUMBERTO IS EXHIBITING QUITE
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH A SMALL EYE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING. DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT ABOUT
75 KT...WHILE ADT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND CIMSS AMSU SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 75 KT. A DIRECT HIT BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE AT 2250Z PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT
HUMBERTO IS LARGER IN ITS TROPICAL STORM AND 50-KT WIND RADII THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE CDO AND
INDEPENDENT ANALYSES FROM CIRA AMSU SIZE VALUES.
CURRENTLY...HUMBERTO HAS BEEN TRAVERSING OVER WATERS OF 26C AND
THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO MAY BE
AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AS HUMBERTO TRACKS NORTHWARD THEN WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH A STRONG
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT
A DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HOSTILE SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSEST TO THE DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL
THEREAFTER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT
HUMBERTO MAY ATTEMPT A COMEBACK STARTING AROUND DAY 5...BUT IT IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE REMAINING AT
THAT TIME AFTER EXPERIENCING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR NEARLY
FOUR DAYS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT 11 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
STEERING INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST AFRICA TO ITS EAST.
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
AZORES AND FORCE HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE TRACK PREDICTION IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 19.1N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 20.7N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.3N 29.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.5N 31.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 24.2N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 25.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 27.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120849
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HUMBERTO REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE
CYCLONE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT OR EYE. THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED
BANDS...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE
STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC
AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL JUST RECENTLY.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO MAY HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4.5. ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT.
HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD...005/12....AND A
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN BETWEEN A BLOCKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST UNTIL ABOUT DAY 4. BY DAY 5...HUMBERTO SHOULD REACH A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING AND SLOW DOWN WHILE IT TURNS NORTHWARD OR
PERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ADVANCING ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOW FAST AND IN WHAT
DIRECTION THE CYCLONE IS STEERED LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL AT THE MOMENT.
EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO IS ALREADY OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C...
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED THE
CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SOON AS
A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 40 KT IN 2-3 DAYS
WHILE HUMBERTO IS STILL OVER COOL WATERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A RESILIENT HUMBERTO...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
SIZE OF ITS CIRCULATION...SURVIVING TO REACH WARMER WATERS BY DAY
4. SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MIGHT ALLOW
FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE LOWER SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSMBLE OUTPUT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 20.5N 28.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 22.0N 29.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 23.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.5N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 25.1N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 27.3N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
La salida de las 06 UTC del GFS es espectacular :O* :DDD :DDD :DDD :DDD
¿El motivo? porque prevé un importante debilitamiento del Anticiclón de las Azores a partir de +90 horas, a la vez que su desplazamiento hacia el este, produciéndose una nueva ruptura del cinturón anticiclónico Azores - Bermuda, y haciendo que HUMBERTO cambiase de nuevo de rumbo para acercarse a las Azores.
Además, debido a un incremento tanto de las SSTs de las aguas sobre las que se movería, como de la inestabilidad en su entorno, sufriría una importante reintensificación :<<O
Está claro que, todo ciclón que se sale de la RDP a estas altura del año, no se le debe de quitar el ojo de encima: las sorpresas y el seguimiento apasionante está garantizado.
Otra imagen para el recuerdo... MeteoSat 18:00h
(https://sphotos-b-mxp.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1209279_656932417658890_253908849_n.jpg)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 122032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013
...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 29.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.2 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
EL CICLON POST TROPICAL HUMBERTO ESTA LOCALIZADO A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES. EL CICLON CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO ALGUNA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADA...PERO LOS VIENTOS EN
LOS NIVELES ALTOS NO SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE NUEVAMENTE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES PODRIAN TORNARSE MAS FAVORABLES PARA SU REGENERACION DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS AL MOVERSE ESTE SISTEMA AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...70 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL NUEVAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...90 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS.