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Autor Tema: Huracán HUMBERTO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de Mexico).  (Leído 5933 veces)

Desconectado A.D.I.D.A.S

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Huracán HUMBERTO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de Mexico).
« en: Septiembre 09, 2007, 08:44:09 am »






THE GULF OF MEXICO...


THE MAIN AREA OF WEATHER TONIGHT IS IN THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OVER THE S/SE
GULF S OF 28N E OF 89W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED AREA
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N87W. AS OF 09/0300 UTC THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED
ALONG 23N89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL IN THE
ATLC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH
WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4' OR LESS. VERY DRY/STABLE
MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE NE GULF...BEING ADVECTED SW BY NE
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW JUST E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
THE UPPER HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS. THE WEAK SFC TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE...THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TROUGHING.
« Última modificación: Septiembre 13, 2007, 13:04:56 pm por Gale »

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 09, 2007, 15:40:09 pm »
No se le ve buen aspecto....................... Veremos a ver cómo se comporta en días sucesivos...

Desconectado AngelAldair94

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 09, 2007, 16:24:35 pm »
pues aqui en cancun en estos momentos esta lloviznando, hace media hora tronaba, pero ahora hay mucha lluvia ::) ::) ::)
saludos

Desconectado LOVEGIRL

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 09, 2007, 18:20:14 pm »
Jejeje ya decia yo que porque habia bajado la temperatura y estaba lloviendo, no me habia dado cuenta que lo tenemos casi encima  :DDD :DDD  Pues a ver como le va a este, ojala no cambie el rumbo de los pronosticos que ahorita en Veracruz se las estan viendo muyy negras con el desbordamiento de rios.
Amanecer en Cancun

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 09, 2007, 22:02:34 pm »
mientras no se vaya a veracruz todo esta bien ya por esa zona de rios vive mi familia :-X
saludos

Desconectado aso 111

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 10, 2007, 22:21:15 pm »
18 GMT 09/9/07  24.0N  89.0W     20        1011       Invest
00 GMT 09/10/07  24.1N  90.1W     20        1009       Invest
Cazando tormentas des de 2004

buen equipo, buena gente

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 11:31:43 am »
Está alcanzando Texas en forma de intensa actividad tormentosa, pero parece que no va a tener más tiempo para organizarse...

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 15:21:55 pm »
Citar
THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 09Z...THE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N95W 1008
MB...WHICH IS 2 MB LOWER THAN OBSERVED 3 HOURS EARLIER AT 06Z.
IN ACCORDANCE...SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
WITH THE HIGHEST REPORT NEAR 29 KT E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER
...THIS REPORT SEEMS SUSPECT AND UNREPRESENTATIVE WHEN COMPARED
TO THE SURROUNDING 10-20 KT REPORTS. THESE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
REVEAL THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AN ELONGATED N-S TROUGH
AXIS...THOUGH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW
AN IMPROVED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN
ELEMENTS. PROBABLY THE CLEAREST INDICATION OF THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS THE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS STARTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SE TEXAS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #8 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 16:01:53 pm »
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

SATELLITE AND NWS RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. 

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #9 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 16:59:27 pm »
Depresion Tropical 9

15 GMT 09/12/07  28.1N 95.2W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
Cazando tormentas des de 2004

buen equipo, buena gente

Desconectado A.D.I.D.A.S

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #10 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 16:59:34 pm »
Depresion tropical en ultimatum...joder como se lo ha currado este sistema, menos mal que no le va a dar mucho tiempo hacerse chungo..por que esta en una zona que... :O* :O*

Desconectado FJAVICHU

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Re: Sistema 90L > Golfo de Mexico
« Respuesta #11 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 17:10:36 pm »
dos de golpe, la 8 y la 9, ¿cual es la 8 y cual es la 9?
El cielo es mi ser, cuando hay nubes, las tormentas son un gran espectaculo cuando el anticiclón invade mi vida, la astronomía es mi pasión.

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Depresión Tropical 09L (Golfo de Mexico).
« Respuesta #12 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 18:10:18 pm »
Citar
000
WTNT44 KNHC 121447
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND
HOUSTON SHOW A LOOSE BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NOAA BUOY
42019 INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY... TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED. WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT FOR NOW...WITH A BETTER READ ON
THE INTENSITY EXPECTED WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES IN
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A
LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE OVER WATER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
DAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT
COULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 28.1N  95.2W    30 KT
12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.6N  95.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.8N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.4N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.7N  91.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Desconectado Gale

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Re: Depresión Tropical 09L (Golfo de Mexico).
« Respuesta #13 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 18:16:56 pm »
Qué guapo se ha puesto esta depresión tropical :o :o :o Si no llega a alcanzar el status de Tormenta Tropical, se quedará cerca :o :O*

Imagen satelital en modo visible de las 15:45 UTC.

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Re: Tormenta Tropical HUMBERTO (Golfo de Mexico).
« Respuesta #14 en: Septiembre 12, 2007, 20:10:51 pm »
Me lo estaba temiendo, y aquí está.............. la 90L es HUMBERTO :DDD :DDD :DDD

Citar
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121736
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL
REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 



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