Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: A.D.I.D.A.S en Septiembre 09, 2007, 08:44:09 am
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(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/ATL/90L.INVEST/pacific/southern_hemisphere/ir/geo/ir/geo/1km_bw/20070909.0500.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.90LINVEST.20kts-1010mb-235N-865W.100pc.jpg)
(http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/1178/vislzp4.jpg)
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN AREA OF WEATHER TONIGHT IS IN THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OVER THE S/SE
GULF S OF 28N E OF 89W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED AREA
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N87W. AS OF 09/0300 UTC THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED
ALONG 23N89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL IN THE
ATLC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH
WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4' OR LESS. VERY DRY/STABLE
MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE NE GULF...BEING ADVECTED SW BY NE
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW JUST E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
THE UPPER HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS. THE WEAK SFC TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE...THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TROUGHING.
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No se le ve buen aspecto....................... Veremos a ver cómo se comporta en días sucesivos...
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pues aqui en cancun en estos momentos esta lloviznando, hace media hora tronaba, pero ahora hay mucha lluvia ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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Jejeje ya decia yo que porque habia bajado la temperatura y estaba lloviendo, no me habia dado cuenta que lo tenemos casi encima :DDD :DDD Pues a ver como le va a este, ojala no cambie el rumbo de los pronosticos que ahorita en Veracruz se las estan viendo muyy negras con el desbordamiento de rios.
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mientras no se vaya a veracruz todo esta bien ya por esa zona de rios vive mi familia :-X
saludos
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18 GMT 09/9/07 24.0N 89.0W 20 1011 Invest
00 GMT 09/10/07 24.1N 90.1W 20 1009 Invest
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Está alcanzando Texas en forma de intensa actividad tormentosa, pero parece que no va a tener más tiempo para organizarse...
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THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 09Z...THE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N95W 1008
MB...WHICH IS 2 MB LOWER THAN OBSERVED 3 HOURS EARLIER AT 06Z.
IN ACCORDANCE...SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
WITH THE HIGHEST REPORT NEAR 29 KT E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER
...THIS REPORT SEEMS SUSPECT AND UNREPRESENTATIVE WHEN COMPARED
TO THE SURROUNDING 10-20 KT REPORTS. THESE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
REVEAL THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AN ELONGATED N-S TROUGH
AXIS...THOUGH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW
AN IMPROVED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN
ELEMENTS. PROBABLY THE CLEAREST INDICATION OF THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS THE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS STARTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SE TEXAS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
SATELLITE AND NWS RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Depresion Tropical 9
15 GMT 09/12/07 28.1N 95.2W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
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Depresion tropical en ultimatum...joder como se lo ha currado este sistema, menos mal que no le va a dar mucho tiempo hacerse chungo..por que esta en una zona que... :O* :O*
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dos de golpe, la 8 y la 9, ¿cual es la 8 y cual es la 9?
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 121447
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND
HOUSTON SHOW A LOOSE BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NOAA BUOY
42019 INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY... TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED. WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT FOR NOW...WITH A BETTER READ ON
THE INTENSITY EXPECTED WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES IN
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A
LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5. THE DEPRESSION IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
DAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT
COULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.1N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.6N 95.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 29.8N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.4N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.7N 91.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
[/size]
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Qué guapo se ha puesto esta depresión tropical :o :o :o Si no llega a alcanzar el status de Tormenta Tropical, se quedará cerca :o :O*
Imagen satelital en modo visible de las 15:45 UTC.
(http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/4000/goes15452007255pooowtfb2.jpg)
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Me lo estaba temiendo, y aquí está.............. la 90L es HUMBERTO :DDD :DDD :DDD
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121736
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL
REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Parece que Humberto dejara inundaciones en Texas y Louisiana ::)
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me gusta el aspecto que tiene, lastima que no vaya a ser huracan ya que tiene una pinta fenomenal!!!!! ;D ;D ;D
saludos
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:o :o :o Le gano el nombre a la 08 ;D ;D se fortalecio rapido a ver que pasa cone ste
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Pues eso, en un tris se hizo Huracan antes de tocar tierra :o :o :o :o :o :o
BOLETIN
HURACAN HUMBERTO ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 4
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT JUEVES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007
...HUMBERTO SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN JUSTO ANTES DE ENTRAR A
TIERRA...
...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN CUBREN UN AREA PEQUENA AL
NORESTE DEL CENTRO...
A LAS 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE
EL ESTE DE HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. EL AVISO DE
HURACAN PARA HUMBERTO SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE
HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS HORAS.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL ESTE DE
SARGENT TEXAS HASTA HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...Y DESDE EL ESTE DE CAMERON
LOUISIANA HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 1215 PM CDT EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HUMBERTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO
CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.4 OESTE O COMO A 20
MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS...Y COMO A 15
MILLAS...20 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
HUMBERTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...
13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE QUE ESTA DIRECCION
GENERAL DE MOVIMIENTO CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA EL CENTRO DE HUMBERTO CRUZARA LA COSTA SUPERIOR DE
TEXAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS.
DATOS DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y EL RADAR
DOPPLER INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO
HASTA CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS
FUERTES...CONFINADOS A UN AREA PEQUENA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO.
HUMBERTO AHORA ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE
ENTRAR A TIERRA.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15
MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60
MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION FUE
DE 992 MILIBARES...29.29 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LA
TRAYECTORIA DE HUMBERTO A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE TEXAS ASI COMO EN EL
OESTE Y CENTRO DE LOUISIANA...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS
AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS.
INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE
DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA.
SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS EN EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EN EL
SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA HASTA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES.
REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1215 AM CDT...29.4 NORTE...94.4 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARES.
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 400 AM CDT.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA
(http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5849/053525wsmvj0.gif)
(http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/7931/at200709satig0.jpg)
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:o :o :o que barbaridad, ayer cuando me fui del trabajo deje una depresesión tropical y cuiando engancho esta mañana veo que ya tenemos un huracán.... qué barbaridad beer beer
Un saludo
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000
WTNT64 KNHC 130714
Humberto ha tocado tierra:
TCUAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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70 kts - 989 mb
(http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/5108/humberzz1.jpg)
Saludos.
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¿Alguien entiende cómo se ha podido formar este huracán tan pegado a tierra? :o :o :o :o
000
WTNT44 KNHC 130856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST
OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE
FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS
REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.9N 94.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.2N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.7N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 32.3N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
(http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/5051/goes101520072565hzvfonp4.jpg)
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Interesantes datos extraídos de la discusión del Atlántico del CNH:
HUMBERTO MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CROSSING THE
TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGHLAND AROUND 07 UTC. AT 13/1200
UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR
30.3N 93.6W OR ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER MOVING TOWARD
THE NE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HUMBERTO HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A
HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA DISPLAYED AN
IMPROVED STRUCTURE UP UNTIL LANDFALL WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AND WELL DEFINED BANDING N OF THE CENTER. SINCE MOVING
INLAND...THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SOME...BUT THE
NRN EYEWALL AND RAINBANDS REMAIN WELL DEFINED. THE STORM CROSSED
VERY NEAR BEAUMONT TEXAS WHICH REPORTED A GUST TO 73 KT WHEN IN
THE NRN EYEWALL. RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60
NM SW SEMICIRCLES.
Otro ciclón que muestra una impresionante CV :P
Animación de imágenes de radar :o :o :o
(http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/9974/radardu9.gif)
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¿Alguien entiende cómo se ha podido formar este huracán tan pegado a tierra? :o :o :o :o
::) ::) ::) ::)yo no para nada estando tan cerca de tocar tierra jamas me imagine que se volveria huracan ??? :o :o ??? ???
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05 GMT 09/13/07 29.4N 94.4W 80 992 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/13/07 29.9N 94.1W 85 986 Category 1 Hurricane
(http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/912/at200709vm4.gif)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200709.html#a_topad
quiere volver al golfo ::)
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 131446
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.6N 93.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 91.7W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN[/size]
Otro ciclón que ha hecho historia ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
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Éste sí que les ha pillado en bragas :DDD
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09 GMT 09/13/07 29.9N 94.1W 85 986 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/13/07 30.6N 93.2W 65 990 Tropical Storm
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si regresa al golfo de mexico seria como el huracan ivan, dando una vuelta sobre estados unidos ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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21 GMT 09/13/07 31.4N 92.6W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
pierde mucha fuerza
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Deja Humberto un muerto y se degrada a tormenta tropical
Humberto, el primer huracán que castiga a la costa estadounidense del Golfo de México en dos años, se estrelló contra el sudeste de Texas con copiosas precipitaciones y vendavales de cerca de 130 kilómetros por hora (km/h), que mataron a una persona, informaron autoridades.
Tras tocar tierra, el sistema se debilitó y se convirtió en una tormenta tropical al ingresar a la región central de Luisiana. La principal preocupación en Texas era que llovía intensamente en áreas que ya habían sufrido inundaciones en semanas recientes.
El ciclón, de categoría uno en la escala Saffir-Simpson, llegó a tierra a unos ocho kilómetros al este de High Island, cerca del Parque Estatal Sea Rim, donde las ráfagas de viento tenían una velocidad de 100 km/h, reportó el meteorólogo Jim Sweeney. Es posible que el meteoro pierda fuerza conforme se adentre en el territorio estadounidense.
Casi todos los barrios de las ciudades de Beaumont y Port Arthur se quedaron sin luz, indicó Debi Derrick, de la empresa Energy Texas, encargada del abastecimiento de electricidad. Calculó que unas 100 mil personas no tenían luz.
"Podría tomarnos un par de días restablecer el servicio eléctrico", agregó Derrick.
En la zona del este de High Island a Cameron (Luisiana) se emitió un alerta de huracán, luego que Humberto se transformó de tormenta tropical en ciclón la madrugada del jueves.
A las 08:00 horas del Este (12:00 GMT), el centro de Humberto estaba localizado a unos 40 kilómetros al noreste del lago Charles, en Luisiana. Avanzaba hacia el norte-noreste a casi 20 km/h.
"Ha habido lluvias muy fuertes en el extremo sureste de Texas. Hoy las habrá en Luisiana, Misisipi y el sudeste de Arkansas", expresó Daniel Brown, del Centro Nacional de Huracanes en Miami.
Texas ha tenido un verano con muchas lluvias. En Houston, por ejemplo, no llovía tanto desde 1942. La tierra ya está saturada de agua y es previsible que se produzcan inundaciones.
Periodicidad:Actual,Secciones:Al Momento,Secciones:América10:44 10:46Jueves, 13 de Septiembre de 2007 10:44 Tema/images/0913huracan3AP.jpg<%opt_visibleOtrosTemas%>right none
Houston, EUA
13 de septiembre de 2007
AP