000WTNT45 KNHC 122108TCDAT5TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THESOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OFCIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS ATROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLEFOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME ATROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING ISPOSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTSAND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERTHAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THESOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLYSTEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TOMEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ANDTHE HWRF.GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...ATROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICOFOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...INCOMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILLBE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEWDAYS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND$$FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN