Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 12, 2013, 23:16:21 pm
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 122108
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.
GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
(https://sphotos-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/1186295_613941151961679_1928204987_n.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:10pm
El ATCF indica que se mantiene como DT, veremos que dice el boletin de las 11pm EDT del CNH:
AL, 10, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 938W, 30, 1003, TD,
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric022/e.gif) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric022/e.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 12:30pm
Ingrid se consolida al Sur del Golfo:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric027/3.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric027/3.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...19.4 NORTE 95.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 60 MILLAS...95 KM AL ESTE NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO
CERCA DE 175 MILLAS...280 KM AL SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 270 GRADOS A 2 MPH...4 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARES...29.53 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
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CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO Y HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO ROJO HASTA LA PESCA.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* COATZACOALCOS HASTA CABO ROJO
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* NORTE DE CABO ROJO HASTA LA PESCA
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Hora local de Caracas 10:30pm
La trayectoria de Ingrid hacia el Norte antes de ingresar a México podría favorecer la intensificacion e inclusive alcanzar la categóría de huracán, veremos. De momento se mantiene como TT. Avisos de huracán han sido emitidos:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric028/c.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric028/c.jpg.html)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric028/b.gif) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric028/b.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 2:45pm
Ingrid se convierte en el segundo huracán de la temporada:
AL, 10, 2013091418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 944W, 65, 987, HU,
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric030/3.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric030/3.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:30pm
Continúa intensificándose. Tremenda la convección central, totalmente acoplado:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric031/b.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric031/b.jpg.html)
En la visible HD y a dicha hora mostró dos Overshooting Top, minutos después se integraron:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric031/a.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric031/a.jpg.html)
Va a dar mas las próximas horas, rumbo al CAT2:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric031/c.gif) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric031/c.gif.html)
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La cizalladura está mermando la fuerza de INGRID......... probablemente, la generada por la tormenta tropical MANUEL en el Pacífico Este....
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Hora local de Caracas 8:30pm
Ingrid bajo el satélite Suomi NPP. Obvio la altísmima resolución de éste instrumento en fase "caleta" :mrgreen: :mrgreen: . Ojalá pronto este disponible como el resto de los satélites. Impresionante la calidad de la captura. Hasta se aprecian las ondulaciones en los cirros dentro del flujo de salida en altura del ciclón:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/eyestormeric2003/a_zpsa80e7eee.gif) (http://s1111.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric2/media/eyestormeric2003/a_zpsa80e7eee.gif.html)
Así luce Ingrid entrando en penumbra. Aún se sostiene como CAT1, sin embargo el ATCF indica que la presión a comenzado a bajar nuevamente: Veremos:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/eyestormeric2003/b_zps6d35b4ef.jpg) (http://s1111.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric2/media/eyestormeric2003/b_zps6d35b4ef.jpg.html)