Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: AngelAldair94 en Septiembre 16, 2007, 21:34:22 pm
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sistema tropical 97 E
25 kts 1008 mb
(http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/6388/97evz6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
se encuentra cerca de mexico ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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se esta moviendo hacia el oeste noroeste, pero no se dirige a mexico ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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12 GMT 09/17/07 11.9N 102.7W 25 1008 Invest
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en estos momentos se encuentra muy desorganizado :-\ pero poco a poco se ira organizandose ::)
saludos
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se ve mas organizado ::) ::) ::)
posible trayectoria:
(http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/8505/ep9707nn6.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
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Depresion tropical 12E
25 knots 1007 mb
(http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/4447/12eft9.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
trayectoria:
(http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/6615/track12eqc2.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
saludos
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Vaya nombrecito que le tocaba ;D
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190226
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND
3.0 RESPECTIVELY ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO WESTWARD. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IVO REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. BY THEN...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW NORTH
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...IVO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 3
DAYS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THE FORECAST
BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE
CYCLONE...OTHERS TURN IVO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS MOVE IT
TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER..THEY ALL AGREE IN FORECASTING WEAKENING
AFTER 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.5N 109.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Puede llegar a ser un huracán, en un día o dos, según el CNH ;)
(http://img463.imageshack.us/img463/5246/ivoql8.jpg)
Fuente de la imagen: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/index.html
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me gusta su forma redondita ;D ;D ;D es fenomenal, no creo que las condiciones sean muy malas, pero quizas llegue a mexico como una fuerte tormenta tropical ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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21 GMT 09/18/07 13.8N 108.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/19/07 14.5N 109.3W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/19/07 14.7N 110.0W 60 997 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/19/07 15.3N 111.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
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sostiene vientos de 100km/h con rafagas mas fuertes. segun el nhc no tardara y sera un huracan ::) ::) ::) me sorprende la rapida intensificacion que ha sufrido evil
saludos
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La verdad es muy curiosa com ya comenta angetotti la rapidez de intensificación lo he estqado veindo en numerosas web y es curioso..
55 kts - 994 mb
(http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/9501/ivooh3.jpg)
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su forma circular me sigue gustando ;D ;D ;D parece un algodon de azucar en el mar :DDD :DDD :DDD
no tardara y sera huracan ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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(http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/540/ivo1mf4.jpg)
Posibles trayectorias...
(http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/7136/ivo2vy5.gif)
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 192039
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007
IVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE CENTER AND THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF EYE FORMATION IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND IF IVO IS NOT YET A HURRICANE IT SHOULD
BECOME ONE SHORTLY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.
THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9. IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE
RIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW WILL
NOT COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...
SO THE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO RE-BUILD
EAST OF IVO IN 96-120 HR...AND THEY RESPOND TO THIS BY SHOWING A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE CCON CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
NOT FORECAST IVO TO RECURVE...AS IT TRAPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE
RE-BUILDING RIDGE.
IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO
WILL ENCOUNTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR...
WHILE THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT
TRACK...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
REMAIN. FIRST...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER WARMER WATER BY
120 HR...AND IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHT IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AT THAT TIME. SECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND
COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.4N 111.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 113.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 16.8N 113.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.9N 114.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.9N 113.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 112.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 111.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Ahora mismo, esa posible formación de ojo no se ve tan bien, pero sí en la última imagen que habéis posteado ;)
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200231
TCDEP2
HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
4.0 AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASSAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF
CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL. ON THIS BASIS...IVO HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IVO TO
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR LOSE THE CYCLONE BEYOND DAY 3. ONLY THE
GFDL KEEPS IVO AS A HURRICANE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE GFDL
RUNS.
IVO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. IVO
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOW THE
SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.1N 112.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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03 GMT 09/20/07 16.1N 112.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/20/07 16.5N 112.5W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/20/07 17.1N 112.8W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
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a ver si se anima y se convierte en un categoria 2 :D1 beer
saludos
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(http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/4139/pacificoestebj3.jpg)
Vaya monstruito se está gestando.
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a punto de impactar a baja california sur como una debil depresion tropical :-\
saludos