Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Agosto 29, 2012, 05:58:53 am
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Hora local de Caracas 11:30pm
Oficialmente tenemos a Kirk
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST..0300 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...23.9 NORTE 45.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 1230 MILLAS...1980 KILOMETROS AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES
CERCA DE 1440 MILLAS...2315 KILOMETROS AL SUROESTE DE LAS
ISLAS AZORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARES...29.74 PULGADAS
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/l-4.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/k-3.gif)
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Muy interesante, aunque parece que sera otra tormenta que no conseguirá intensificarse demasiado.
Vigilaremos ese recurve, por si le diera por dar ese recurve de forma más pronunciada.
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Interesante trayectoria la que va a seguir esta tormenta tropical ::) ::):
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/at201211_ensmodel.gif)
:O* :O*
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No creo que KIRK vaya a coger otra trayectoria diferente a la que los modelos estan viendo actualmente. Hay un potente anticiclon en las Azores hara de barrera y lo mandara al norte, como actualmente esta previsto ;)
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De todas maneras se acercará a Azores... Si se debilita en su camino, veremos qué hace.
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¿¡OJO!?
(http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/3164/kirkj.jpg)
(http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3121/kirk2.jpg)
¿Huracán KIRK? ;D
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8)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300840
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN HINTS OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGHER OF THE TWO NUMBERS GIVEN
THE MICROWAVE PRESENTATION. KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FROM 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AT WHICH POINT
KIRK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. KIRK IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IS THEREFORE PRONE TO QUICKER STRENGTHENING THAN A LARGE CYCLONE.
BECAUSE OF THAT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN KIRK WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND/OR
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ON TO
A NON-FRONTAL LOW LONGER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...MAKING KIRK EXTRATROPICAL IN 96
HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 120 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. KIRK IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO
FEEL THE PRESENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NEW
FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND TV15.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 26.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 27.5N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 29.3N 50.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 31.5N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 34.2N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 40.5N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 47.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Confirmado ;)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012
KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60
KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON
TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF
THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.
KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS
OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
IV15.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 27.2N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Hora local de Caracas 1pm
El Pequeño Kirk se convierte en huracán, reducido pero con buen aspecto, organizado. Es el quinto huracán de la temporada:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c-26.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-60.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-49.gif)
No amenaza sectores continentales
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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Pues de acuerdo a la actualización de previsiones del NHC, ha un porccentaje bastante alto de posibilidades de que el "pequeño Kirk" se transforme en un major en las próximas horas.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1112T_sm2+gif/024749P_sm.gif)
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Kirk alcanza la cat. 2 con vientos sostenidos de 105 mph y rachas de 120 mph, vamos que esta a punto de alcanzar la cat. 3, esta es la trayectoria prevista segun la ultima salida de los modelos:
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/kirk.gif)
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Sabia yo que este chiquitin iba a dar alguna que otra sorpresa :D Veremos a ver si llega a ser un Major, que seria el primero de la temporada en el Atlántico.
Actualmente tiene vientos de 90 kt (a 6 kt de una major) y una presion central de 970 mb 8)
(http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/2955/kirk.gif)
PD: Por favor, hay que cambiar el titulo del hilo, porque sigue apareciendo como Tormenta Tropical. A ver si lo leen los moderadores o Eyestorm_Eric para corregirlo ;)
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Lo acabo de hacer yo, jejeje, pero voy a ponerle la cat-2