discussion nº 36 del nhc
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 072029
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006
A 1428Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LIMITED AND
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS BARELY SUPPORT A 25 KT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...KRISTY COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
HOSTILE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...LITTLE...IF
ANY...CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNTIL KRISTY
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...WHICH COULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. KRISTY SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS...WHICH PREDICTED THE PAST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
SLOWER...ERRATIC...24 HOUR MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.9N 130.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.8N 131.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 08/1800Z 15.7N 132.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 15.6N 133.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART