LISA, entre la cizalladura de la vaguada, su aire seco, y el que tiene alrededor, no es capaz de remontar. Se va a quedar en nada.

Nunca habia visto a una tormenta comportarse de esa manera, su trayectoria ha cambiado hacia direcciones que usualmente los ciclones en el Atlantico no van como es el Este y el sur y practicamente esta donde empezo jajaja

LISA ha cogido algo de fuerza hoy, pero se va a ver vapuleada por la cizalladura pronto... Interesante trayectoria al norte. Pasará al oeste de las Canarias, pero bien lejos.

Impresionante LISA, que esta noche ha alcanzado la categoría de huracán

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF LISA HAS BECOME
OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASS FROM
AROUND 2300 UTC STILL SHOWED THAT AN EYE WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...THOUGH THE DATA-T VALUES
WERE HIGHER...AND THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 72 KT. THE INITIAL
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.
LISA BASICALLY HAS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEFT FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
UNTIL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO INCREASE. AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD ALSO INGEST DRIER AIR
AND BE AFFECTED BY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE LISA IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL DAY 4...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO HAPPEN SOONER DUE TO LISA REMAINING OVER
SUB-26C WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 360/7.  THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W IS
ADVANCING CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
CONSEQUENTLY...LESS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK RATHER
THAN NORTHWESTWARD.  AS LONG AS LISA REMAINS A VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM...A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO
THE GFS AND ITS DEPENDENT MODEL SUITE.  A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
EITHER BE A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATED BY THEN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...AGAIN...BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 20.7N  27.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.9N  28.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.7N  28.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N  28.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.4N  28.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 28.5N  29.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.5N  29.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN

Pero ya ha comenzado a debilitarse según el último boletín, posterior al que acabo de citar.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A
CENTRAL MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HURRICANE IS LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER...AND THE OUTFLOW
HAS BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. AN 0347 UTC AMSU-B PASS ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 4.5 AT 0600 UTC FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS THE BASIS FOR AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF INCREASING...AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW CLOSE TO 20 KT
OF SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS WELL AS A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND A COOLER OCEAN SURFACE.  THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
OCCUR AT A RAPID PACE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE NOW THAT LISA HAS PEAKED AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD STEER LISA ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SO LONG AS IT MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY.  AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR A WEAKER LISA...HAVING BECOME A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM SOONER THAN FORECAST...TO SLOW AND THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES AS DEPICTED IN THE UKMET.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE...
IMMEDIATELY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 21.6N  28.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 23.1N  28.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  28.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 29.5N  29.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 31.6N  29.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Algo está llegando de su nubosidad a Canarias, efectivamente Curioso a tope... Tal como comentó el forero Tuga en el hilo de la pluma tropical, el movimiento de LISA está recordando a la de la tormenta tropical nº6 sin nombre de la temporada de 1988.

Quizá desde entonces no se haya visto un ciclón tropical siguiendo un movimiento tan parecido

Y en lo relativo a su salud, se le ve muy desmejorado a este ciclón... Los topes nubosos han seguido calentándose y se ve muy desmejorado. Veremos si en la siguiente actualización LISA sigue siendo tormenta tropical y no rebajada a depresión tropical...

Hay mapillas interesantes, en cuanto a steering currents, o chorros en estatros determinados de la atmósfera, en lo que veo mucha incertidumbre en cuanto al futuro movimiento de LISA... Si cogemos estratos cercanos a la superficie, parece que el ciclón podría ir girando al noroeste, que es la apuesta oficial si no me equivoco, al menos en Wunderground... Pero si cogemos un estrato un poco más grueso, 400-850 hPa, si ese flujo fuese el que dominase el movimiento de LISA, éste se lo llevaría derechito a Canarias... Probablemente sean flujos de niveles inferiores los que lo gobiernen, pero tengo muchas dudas. Al menos habrá lucha entre unos y otros...

El último boletín del CNH indicaba que la inestabilidad sobre LISA iba a aumentar, estimulando la convección y quizá impidiendo una mayor debilidad del ciclón. Así entonces, seguiremos vigilándolo, como buenos cazatormentas, aunque sea en la soledad de este subforo

Adjunto los dos mapillas en cuestión:

400-850 hPa:


700-850 hPa:

Lo mismo digo! 

no están solos para nada,lo que pasa es que no sé mucho por no decir nada y no podria aportar nada,pero estoy aprendiendo mucho y no tiene precio la dedicacion y el trabajo y entusiasmo que poneis en cada análisis ,cada foto,.........para mí es admirable.

Se han actualizado los productos sobre LISA... Como comentábamos, la cizalladura está destruyendo al ciclón, aunque se contempla la posibilidad de borbotones convectivos intermitentes que lo mantengan vivo por un tiempo.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON LISA WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS
A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5/55 KT
FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT VALUE OF T3.0/45 KT
FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONVERGENT
NOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HASTEN THE ONGOING
WEAKENING TREND. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES DISSIPATION BY
48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALIVE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.7N  28.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  29.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 28.6N  29.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.7N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 32.5N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART