Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Septiembre 21, 2010, 09:10:14 am
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LISA, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2010, TS, O, 2010091812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL142010
(http://img807.imageshack.us/img807/2995/rbl.jpg)
(http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/7228/storm14spaghetti.gif)
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No ha actualizado todavía el CNH, pero le falta poco... Interesante progresión que se le da en el boletín de discusión evil
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 N MI WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND 30
KT...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION
IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5...BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
FIXES. THE DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE WEAK FLOW. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. ANOTHER TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME. THERE IS A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT
JUST SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM COULD INCREASE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.1N 31.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 31.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 31.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 31.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 18.9N 32.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 34.4W 50 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 35.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.5N 35.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Ya es oficial su clasificación como tormenta tropical
WTNT34 KNHC 210852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA...TWELFTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 31.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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LISA parece que va a tener poco tiempo para intensificarse, por el paso de varias vaguadas que provocarán cizalladura. La primera, la que se supone que le va a robar nubosidad que irá camino de Canarias...
Su aspecto no ha cambiado demasiado desde que fuera nombrada tormenta tropical esta mañana.
(http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/3499/lisaj.gif)
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En la URL: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/disc_eur.html
podéis ver la animación de 24 horas de lo que estamos comentando en el foro.
No quedará como archivo histórico, pero bueno.
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Sube la intensidad de LISA, a 40 KT, y suben también los pronósticos de pico de intensidad, que ahora es de 60 KT a +48 horas. No está claro cuál será el movimiento a partir de las 24 horas siguientes, porque hay divergencia entre lo pronosticado por los distintos modelos. Unos optan por WNW, otros, como GFDL, sigue en sus trece con lo pronosticado ayer: movimiento hacia el N... Interesante que haya esa incertidumbre.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 211445
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED IN A 21/0932Z SSMIS OVERPASS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF LISA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45 KT.
AFTER A BRIEF JOG TO THE NORTHEAST A FEW HOURS AGO...LISA HAS
RESUMED A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36-48 HOURS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND
FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS TAKING LISA
DUE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE NOGAPS/GFDN
MODELS MOVE LISA DUE WEST. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD OUT EVENLY BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. SUCH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING LISA
IS FORECAST TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 27C. THE DRIER AIR AND COOLER WATER MAY PUT THE BREAKS ON THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48-72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT MOVE LISA NORTH OF
20N LATITUDE...WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM 72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.1N 31.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.3N 31.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 18.7N 31.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 19.0N 32.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 19.4N 33.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.1N 34.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 35.8W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 21.0N 37.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/618/pregi.jpg)
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LISA está cogiendo fuelle a pesar de todo, y ahora se pronostica un pico de intensidad de 65 KT que le serviría para convertirse en otro huracán más... Y de momento se está moviendo hacia el norte ;)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...¿JULIA? ;D IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 18.3N 31.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.6N 31.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 31.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 19.7N 33.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.4N 34.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 36.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.0N 38.0W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Captura de Google Earth... Nada menos que separan 2000 km. al centro de LISA de las Canarias... Más o menos lo que mide la banda nubosa diagonal...
(http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4508/pre3g.jpg)
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Pedazo de PRE, qué bien visto Pedro.
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Pedazo de PRE, qué bien visto Pedro.
La que se formó con JULIA me pilló desprevenido... ;D Pero esta no. Habrá más gente que lo haya visto por ahí al mismo tiempo o antes que yo, seguro, de todos modos. Pero bueno, no es importante quién lo ve en el foro. Lo importante es verlo. 8)
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La fuerte corriente en chorro, "robando" esa pluma tropical a partir de LISA. Y ya sí me acuesto. Feliz seguimiento! Mañana habrá mucho que leer :D
(http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/2661/pre4.gif)
By CIMSS.
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A ver si se convierte en el próximo huracan!
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Lisa está sufriendo con la cizalladura que le está metiendo el "vaguadón" atlántico responsable de la situación de hoy en Canarias, en esa interacción vaguada + LISA. De nuevo las perspectivas de pico de intensidad procuradas por el CNH han disminuido. Tampoco ayer veía claro por qué lo intensificaban tanto, teniendo ese vaguadón encima ??? ??? ??? ??? Y ahora hay que ver cómo le influye en su movimiento, porque por el sector occidental de la vaguada está bajando lo poco que queda de JULIA, así que la cosa está interesante :D1 :D1 :D1
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LISA. THE
CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL MASS OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH WITH FEWER BANDING FEATURES THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERAL RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT CO-LOCATED...A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING IMPACTED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC ARE AT 2.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. A SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION FROM THESE FIXES
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 060/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS LISA DRIFTING SOUTH OR EAST IN
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING DURING THE 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STORM. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS SLOWED FURTHER UNTIL A MORE
ESTABLISHED TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF LISA
THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN 24-48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
IMPARTING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM...BUT SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER
LISA...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING LATER IN THE
PERIOD. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE LISA IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME...AND THE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS FORECAST TRACK MAKES THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT DOWNWARD BEFORE 72 HOURS BUT REMAINS AT OR
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL OUTPUT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 18.0N 30.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 18.0N 30.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.9N 30.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.8N 30.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.8N 30.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 32.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 19.5N 35.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 38.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Pues sí vaya pedazo de vaguada, no me había enterado de esto hasta ahora... a ver si le presto más atención a Lisa. :)
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LISA, entre la cizalladura de la vaguada, su aire seco, y el que tiene alrededor, no es capaz de remontar. Se va a quedar en nada.
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LISA, entre la cizalladura de la vaguada, su aire seco, y el que tiene alrededor, no es capaz de remontar. Se va a quedar en nada.
Nunca habia visto a una tormenta comportarse de esa manera, su trayectoria ha cambiado hacia direcciones que usualmente los ciclones en el Atlantico no van como es el Este y el sur y practicamente esta donde empezo jajaja
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Pues Lisa ya es depresion tropical, y ya empezo a moverse hacia el norte pero a 2 mph ::) definitivamente no va a llegar a ningun lado.
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LISA ha cogido algo de fuerza hoy, pero se va a ver vapuleada por la cizalladura pronto... Interesante trayectoria al norte. Pasará al oeste de las Canarias, pero bien lejos.
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??? ??? ???
(http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/4626/at201014sat.jpg) (http://img825.imageshack.us/i/at201014sat.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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Impresionante LISA, que esta noche ha alcanzado la categoría de huracán :o :o :o :o :o :o
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF LISA HAS BECOME
OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASS FROM
AROUND 2300 UTC STILL SHOWED THAT AN EYE WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...THOUGH THE DATA-T VALUES
WERE HIGHER...AND THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 72 KT. THE INITIAL
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.
LISA BASICALLY HAS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEFT FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
UNTIL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO INCREASE. AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD ALSO INGEST DRIER AIR
AND BE AFFECTED BY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE LISA IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL DAY 4...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO HAPPEN SOONER DUE TO LISA REMAINING OVER
SUB-26C WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 360/7. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W IS
ADVANCING CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
CONSEQUENTLY...LESS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK RATHER
THAN NORTHWESTWARD. AS LONG AS LISA REMAINS A VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM...A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO
THE GFS AND ITS DEPENDENT MODEL SUITE. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
EITHER BE A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATED BY THEN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...AGAIN...BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 20.7N 27.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 21.9N 28.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.7N 28.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 28.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 28.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 28.5N 29.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.5N 29.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Pero ya ha comenzado a debilitarse según el último boletín, posterior al que acabo de citar.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 250834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A
CENTRAL MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HURRICANE IS LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER...AND THE OUTFLOW
HAS BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. AN 0347 UTC AMSU-B PASS ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 4.5 AT 0600 UTC FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS THE BASIS FOR AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF INCREASING...AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW CLOSE TO 20 KT
OF SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS WELL AS A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND A COOLER OCEAN SURFACE. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
OCCUR AT A RAPID PACE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE NOW THAT LISA HAS PEAKED AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD STEER LISA ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SO LONG AS IT MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR A WEAKER LISA...HAVING BECOME A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM SOONER THAN FORECAST...TO SLOW AND THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES AS DEPICTED IN THE UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE...
IMMEDIATELY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 21.6N 28.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 23.1N 28.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.7N 28.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 28.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 27.4N 28.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 29.5N 29.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/0600Z 31.6N 29.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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1260 km. separan el centro de LISA de la Isla de La Palma:
(http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/515/lisacan.jpg)
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(http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/324/image250910.gif)
Algo está llegando de su nubosidad a Canarias, efectivamente :P Curioso a tope... Tal como comentó el forero Tuga en el hilo de la pluma tropical, el movimiento de LISA está recordando a la de la tormenta tropical nº6 sin nombre de la temporada de 1988 (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198893.asp).
Quizá desde entonces no se haya visto un ciclón tropical siguiendo un movimiento tan parecido :P
Y en lo relativo a su salud, se le ve muy desmejorado a este ciclón... Los topes nubosos han seguido calentándose y se ve muy desmejorado. Veremos si en la siguiente actualización LISA sigue siendo tormenta tropical y no rebajada a depresión tropical...
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Lo que no comprendo es por qué hay modelos que no terminan de verlo destruído en sus pronósticos de intensidad... Adjunto con attach, from Wunderground.
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Hay mapillas interesantes, en cuanto a steering currents, o chorros en estatros determinados de la atmósfera, en lo que veo mucha incertidumbre en cuanto al futuro movimiento de LISA... Si cogemos estratos cercanos a la superficie, parece que el ciclón podría ir girando al noroeste, que es la apuesta oficial si no me equivoco, al menos en Wunderground... Pero si cogemos un estrato un poco más grueso, 400-850 hPa, si ese flujo fuese el que dominase el movimiento de LISA, éste se lo llevaría derechito a Canarias... Probablemente sean flujos de niveles inferiores los que lo gobiernen, pero tengo muchas dudas. Al menos habrá lucha entre unos y otros...
El último boletín del CNH indicaba que la inestabilidad sobre LISA iba a aumentar, estimulando la convección y quizá impidiendo una mayor debilidad del ciclón. Así entonces, seguiremos vigilándolo, como buenos cazatormentas, aunque sea en la soledad de este subforo 8)
Adjunto los dos mapillas en cuestión:
400-850 hPa:
(http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/3476/dlm3250910.gif)
700-850 hPa:
(http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/4603/dlm1250910.gif)
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;D ;D de soledad nada de nada Gale
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Lo mismo digo! ;)
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Hola buenas noches. Muchas gracias por mantenernos informados, a mi me preocupa que cada vez esta mas cerca y que como los modelo no lo ven que nos pueda afectar, gire en ultimo momento y nos trinque en pañales como el Delta. No están solos hay muchos Canarios pendientes de este foro :-\
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no están solos para nada,lo que pasa es que no sé mucho por no decir nada y no podria aportar nada,pero estoy aprendiendo mucho y no tiene precio la dedicacion y el trabajo y entusiasmo que poneis en cada análisis ,cada foto,.........para mí es admirable.
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Bien, bien, os agradezco vuestros mensajes :D jejejeje!
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Se han actualizado los productos sobre LISA... Como comentábamos, la cizalladura está destruyendo al ciclón, aunque se contempla la posibilidad de borbotones convectivos intermitentes que lo mantengan vivo por un tiempo.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 252032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON LISA WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS
A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5/55 KT
FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT VALUE OF T3.0/45 KT
FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONVERGENT
NOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HASTEN THE ONGOING
WEAKENING TREND. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES DISSIPATION BY
48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALIVE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.7N 28.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.7N 28.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 28.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 27.4N 29.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 28.6N 29.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.7N 30.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.5N 30.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Pedro!! Yo también sigo a Lisa por aquí! Y no estas solo hombre!! :D
Lo que pasa es que la observaciones muchos de nosotros (Los Canarios) las dejamos en el hilo de Canarias.
Como siempre buen seguimiento!
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jé! para nada estás solo Gale casi todos por no decir todos los canarios del hilo canario seguramente estén siguiendo a Lisa por aquí, lo que pasa es que no sabemos mucho y...solo miramos ;)
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jeje y yo lo que pasa es que estamos desde el burladero :D1
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El último boletín del CNH sobre LISA comentaba que se estaba desplazando al NNW y yo creo que más bien lo está haciendo al NNE... Ah! Y ahora mismo mantiene un borbotón convectivo decente, aunque tenga el centro expuesto. Está a punto de actualizarse el boletín. A ver qué dice...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT LISA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER BECOMING
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. COOL WATERS...DRY AIR...AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF LISA BY MONDAY UNLESS
THE CYCLONE PULLS ANOTHER SURPRISE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE WEAKENING SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
BASED ON SSMI/S IMAGES FROM EARLIER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
RELOCATED FARTHER WEST...AND IS MOVING AT ABOUT 340/8. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...
SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE CYCLONE TAKING A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...BUT THESE MODELS ALSO HAVE A MUCH MORE
VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE. SINCE THIS STRUCTURE IS UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT THAT
IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
VERY SLOWLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NEAR THE AZORES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.3N 29.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.3N 29.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 29.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 27.8N 30.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z 29.2N 30.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 31.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 31.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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(http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/1125/lisa260910.jpg)
Fijáos el borbotón convectivo al NE de la circulación 8) Y además, la convección no está tan alejada del LLCC !
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Acaba de salir la actualización, que degrada a LISA a depresión tropical... Cosa que se me antoja algo excesiva...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE A TOLL ON LISA AS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA
OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND COOL
SSTS...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND LISA IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA. THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.1N 29.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 26.0N 29.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 27.2N 30.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1800Z 28.5N 30.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0600Z 29.8N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z 32.0N 31.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Vaya posicion mas rara la de lisa no? en tierra de nadie. :P
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Buenos días. Una pregunta... veo por lo que decis que es casi imposible que llegue a rozar Canarias, pero si por casualidad lo hiciera, para cuando lo haría aproximadamente??
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Buenos días. Una pregunta... veo por lo que decis que es casi imposible que llegue a rozar Canarias, pero si por casualidad lo hiciera, para cuando lo haría aproximadamente??
Es imposible responder, en tanto que ningún modelo lo lleva para allá. Otra cosa son las Azores... Lo que sí podría alcanzar a las islas es parte de su nubosidad, pero sin hacer más que lo ocurrido en los últimos días, con los chubascos de goterones.
Lo que no veo por ningún lado es ese supuesto movimiento NNW. Yo veo que se mueve hacia el NNE o incluso más al NE...
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Una pregunta :
¿A cuantos kilometros esta Lisa actualmente de las Islas Canarias aproximadamente?
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Gracias por tu respuesta Gale!! Un saludo
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Una pregunta :
¿A cuantos kilometros esta Lisa actualmente de las Islas Canarias aproximadamente?
Según el Google Earth, el centro de la pelota convectiva que ha desarrollado en las últimas horas, pero en declive, a unos 880 km ;)
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La nubosidad residual de LISA se está acercando a las islas...
(http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4930/lisa26.gif)
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La última imagen del visible del NRLA/Navy arroja que LISA es ya tan sólo un remolino de nubes bajas, con toda la convección desplazada al NE, muy lejos del centro... Será declara baja remanente muy pronto por el NHC. De todos modos, esa nubosidad convectiva la seguiría con atención, por si terminara afectando a Canarias.
(http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/5944/lisanavy.jpg)
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Yo creo que la nubosidad que tienen hoy en las islas procede de la destrucción de LISA, que persiste como un buen remolino de nubes bajas, con esa circulación muy bien definida en niveles bajos. Es que la cizalladura que tiene encima LISA es impresionante...
(http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/852/lisa27.jpg)
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Ya se ve a LISA en el visible... y está generando nuevos borbotones convectivos, con una cizalladura encima de 50 a 60 nudos :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X Adjunto con el attach:
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LISA sigue generando bonitos borbotones, cuando ya supera latitudes canarias, y parece que camino de Azores, de momento... Esa virazón hacia el oeste sigo sin creérmela... Tan arriba, como se acerque una vaguada, hará que lo que quede de LISA gire, pero al noreste...
(http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2226/goes17452010270vhecek.jpg)
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LISA está hoy al SW de Azores, y manteniendo borbotones convectivos... Se marcha finalmente...
(http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/4774/201009280700msg2msgirat.jpg)
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LISA sigue a lo suyo, jejejeje 8) Voy a mirar los mapas de cizalladura y tal.
(http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/4894/lisa28.jpg)
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Impresionante la guerra que ha dado LISA :o
Supongo que ese sistema frontal terminará por absorverla de una vez.
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Impresionante la guerra que ha dado LISA :o
Supongo que ese sistema frontal terminará por absorverla de una vez.
Pues, curiosamente, hoy los mapas de cizalladura de CIMSS dibujan cizalladura bastante baja sobre LISA :P Eso sí, los vientos en altura no son favorables porque son muy lineales, sin divergencias. Eso sí, desde ayer LISA parece estar interactuando con una baja presión en altura, que se ve muy bien en los mapas de vapor de agua, y seguramente que su inestabilidad está ayudando a la formación de estos borbotones convectivos de los que extrae energía para seguir manteniendo la circulación de niveles bajos 8)