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Autor Tema: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)  (Leído 7794 veces)

ermuleto

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Re: Tormenta Tropical LORENZO (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #45 en: Septiembre 27, 2007, 20:36:31 pm »
Tormenta Tropical LORENZO





55 kts - 1004 mb









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Re: Tormenta Tropical LORENZO (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #46 en: Septiembre 27, 2007, 23:06:13 pm »
Menuda pelotaza :o :o :o :o

Citar
000
WTNT43 KNHC 272037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS
COME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB
. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER
THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS
WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS.  THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
DVORAK T-NUMBERS.

THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE
MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE.
WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN
DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT
LANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED.

LORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
LORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/2100Z 20.4N  95.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 20.4N  96.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

ermuleto

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Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #47 en: Septiembre 28, 2007, 07:37:40 am »
Es Huracán...  :-X :-X :-X

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Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #48 en: Septiembre 28, 2007, 07:41:15 am »
Es Huracán...  :-X :-X :-X

Era de esperar........... evil o sé qué tiene este año el Golfo de México, pero ya ves lo que ocurre con las perturbaciones que se forman allí :O* Y los forecasters del CNH se lo olían aunque no lo expresaran en sus pronósticos... Mira que son conservadores siempre ;D

Citar
000
WTNT43 KNHC 280241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.
AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE
THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO
RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL.
GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.     

ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 20.5N  96.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.6N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Ahora no descartan que incluso alcance categoría 2 antes de empezar a debilitarse en tierra :O*

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Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #49 en: Septiembre 28, 2007, 12:55:33 pm »
LORENZO ya ha tomado tierra, así que al final no ha conseguido reforzarse más. Muy interesante el comportamiento que han mostrado los ciclones tropicales que se han formado en el Golfo de México esta temporada, en su momento álgido...

Citar
000
WTNT43 KNHC 280853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

LORENZO MADE LANDFALL BEFORE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
ARRIVED....BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE EYEWALL
WAS DEGRADING AS THE CENTER WAS CROSSING THE COAST...SO THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.
GOES IMAGERY AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS MUCH WARMER
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER THAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT A RATHER
POTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE
CENTER OF LORENZO TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ.  THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SINCE LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST...SLOWLY TAKING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE PACE OF DECLINE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DECAY SHIPS DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 20.6N  97.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.9N  98.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #50 en: Septiembre 28, 2007, 14:36:48 pm »
Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory


000
WTNT33 KNHC 281139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...WEAKENING LORENZO PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING THE CENTER OF LORENZO
FARTHER INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS LORENZO MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.52 INCHES.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.7 N...98.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


<br /><br /><br /> Eneko/20minutos.es.

ermuleto

  • Visitante
Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #51 en: Septiembre 29, 2007, 10:11:20 am »
22 GMT 09/25/07  21.7N 95.0W     30       1010     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/26/07  21.7N 95.4W     30       1008     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/26/07  21.0N 95.0W     30       1008     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/26/07  20.9N 95.0W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/26/07  21.3N 94.5W     35       1009     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/27/07  21.2N 94.8W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/27/07  20.8N 95.1W     35       1008     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/27/07  20.7N 95.2W     35       1008     Tropical Depression
18 GMT 09/27/07  20.5N 95.5W     60       1004     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/27/07  20.4N 95.9W     70        999     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/28/07  20.5N 96.5W     80        990     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/28/07  20.6N 97.5W     65        995     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/28/07  20.6N 98.4W     35       1002     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/28/07  20.8N 99.0W     25       1008     Tropical Depression

ermuleto

  • Visitante
Re: Huracán LORENZO - Categoría 1 - (Golfo de México)
« Respuesta #52 en: Septiembre 29, 2007, 18:19:35 pm »
Nuestro amigo, LORENZO, ha batido un récord.  beer beer beer


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=811&tstamp=200709

 



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